mezzacyclone

(sorted) 122.4mph 23.850N 77.750W

It`s a reasonable statement to say the models have really had a poor show in regards to their plots as they have chopped and changed endlessly and now some have taken 60-70 mile steps back WEST? The trough does appear weaker and as posted earlier the ridge is steadfast whereas the one projected to retrogress over Quebec is quashed which is why Irene looks to barrel into NJ/LI northwards up throguh NY state,Conn. Mass.NH, Maine & Quebec. Noticing any drier air becoming enveloped IceB? Shear will become more of a factor soon besides the obvious lower SST`s on approaching NC/Cape hatteras/outer banks but still possible historic events for the megalopolis? I`m struggling with the recon data updates?

947.9mb @ 24.833N 76.200W (AF300 continuing headed WNW)

,,,,well that means intensification once it gone through dont it P but in fear of being a pessimist I dont like saying that the latest models do not look good for eastern seaboard folk at all and a nightmare scenario for Manhattan/LI has recently become just that little bit more plausible with the latest mods? btw: last dropsonde indicates a concentric eye shape (inner AND outer eye) @ 23°27'N 75°02'W

very close over centre @ 23.383N 75.000W with a low of 951.8mb deeper than NHC 18a adv at 954mb. Also dubious as to wether or not an EWRC is in effect as some of the loops look flaky structure-wise? Over 75°west marker and still headed NW? Although shes big enough to make her own way maybe the steering layers are putting a slight westward focus back? wow > 23.517N 75.100W has a 949.9mb reading? also deeply worrying with the 18z HWRF showing cape hatteras landfall > http://img850.imageshack.us/img850/3444/irene09l2011082418nest.png

The 4 engine lockheed orion NOAA plane has had to abort due to engine difficulties right on the edge and RTB. AF302 however still going ahead with no issues for recons,,,

Yes, from the NASA earth observatory site images

Yes, NOAA planes currently 15k feet headed SW las loc. 26.600N 79.167W, with nothing of real interest to report just yet. the AF craft is scheduled for take off any minute,,,

adv 18 has just gone out for those interested? http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/242052.shtml NOAA recon already over reporting, AF plane 22:15 bst

The more trustworthy HWRF @108 and severe consequences for NYC megalopolis?

snippet: > Peak FL 121.9mph @ 22.450N 73.983W

interesting peak flight level wind? Time 2:45:30Z Coordinates 22.117N 73.233W Aircraft Static Air Pressure 750.2 mb Aircraft Geopotential Height 7,329 feet Extrapolated Surface Pressure 968.9 mb D-value N/A Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) From 183° at 112 knots (From the S at ~ 128.8 mph) Air Temp. 15.4°C(~ 59.7°F) Dew Point 15.8°C(~ 60.4°F) Peak (10 sec. Avg.)Flight Level Wind 114 knots(~ 131.1 mph) SFMRPeak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind 88 knots(~ 101.2 mph) SFMR Rain Rate 1 mm/hr(~ 0.04 in/hr) 12 mm/hr(~ 0.47 in/hr) Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)Using Estimated Reduction Factor 86.5 knots (~ 99.4 mph)Category Two Hurricane Peak Wind at Flight Level toEst. Surface Reduction Factor 77.2%

both planes on the periphery at the moment doing a merry dance with Irene before meeting in the middle again little of interest such as 997mb ESP and 40knot est Surf winds from craft at 8k feet,,,,

and just upgraded again SS so your on the ball i`ll agree in terms of "Jose"

AF vortex message indicates: Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) that 954.6mb reading indicating centre was @ 22.000N 73.383W about 30 stat miles SE of crooked Island.

yes, that matches BFTV, 11:43:00Z 21.900N 73.267W 754.3 mb (~ 22.27 inHg) 2,098 meters (~ 6,883 feet) 956.0 mb (~ 28.23 inHg) - From 213° at 24 knots (From the SSW at ~ 27.6 mph) 19.9°C (~ 67.8°F) 15.9°C (~ 60.6°F) 27 knots (~ 31.0 mph) 35 knots (~ 40.2 mph) 1 mm/hr (~ 0.04 in/hr) 31.1 knots (~ 35.8 mph) 129.6% Time Coordinates Aircraft Static Air Pressure Aircraft Geopotential Height Extrapolated Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.) Flight Level Wind SFMR Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to Est. Surface Reduction Factor

FWIW: the NOAA craft is about 20 mile due SW of yankee town, west caicos AF303 about 15 mile South of Mayaguana,,,,

Yes, the deciphered NOAA 2eyedrop data > Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed 957mb (28.26 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 27.2°C (81.0°F) 26.3°C (79.3°F) 175° (from the S) 3 knots (3 mph)

Well the Atlantic ridge looks to be going nowhere in particular and once the trough clears out from the great lakes/NE states tomorrow then pressure looks relatively high in Irene`s path as a 2nd ridge builds from the West over Quebec which in turn has stopped the Easterly path trends we have seen of late? Makes all the difference who yields (if any) in regards to a head slam into LI, Con. Mass & NH or turn to Cape cod and NS having some meaty extra-tropical disturbance as Irene busts the gap. http://www.eldoradoc...mb-heights.html woops, recons here again, this will be of huge interest,,,,,, 957mb iceB? (NOAA eyewall sonde)

90L becoming more interesting? SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

Looks like the temp cat1 re-certification wont apply long as pressure falling to new lows: 22:42:00Z 21.050N 71.767W 754.3 mb (~ 22.27 inHg) 2,212 meters (~ 7,257 feet) 968.7 mb (~ 28.61 inHg) - From 74° at 4 knots (From the ENE at ~ 4.6 mph) 19.2°C (~ 66.6°F) 14.8°C (~ 58.6°F) 6 knots (~ 6.9 mph) 21 knots (~ 24.1 mph) 0 mm/hr (~ 0 in/hr) 14.0 knots (~ 16.1 mph) 350.0% 968mb is really to low for a cat1 anyway? In a strengthening phase now,,

14`s out, slight decrease in speed probably due to light shear hence back to Cat 1 temporarily?

To be honest I`m not sure what GFS ens members are playing at according to this > http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/atcf/12zatcfensinvest2.gif maybe overplaying the 2nd trough mentioned earlier? endlessly chops and changes other than FL being in the clear, typical accuracy falling after 48hrs? All signs for a cat 3 for you in the mornin Ice who`s up for the graveyard shift btw?