mezzacyclone

Post on another forum indicates Hunter recon now airborne from St Croix V.I and due to arrive 18:30-19:00 BST (1:30-2 PM EDT) a very interesting report awaits despite similarities with Emily? (addundum: 97L btw )

from the latest/last Hunter recon: MAX FL WIND 51 KT NE QUAD 17:35:10Z So apart from dry air sectors to the North and NorthWest then it`s all about landfall interaction but although this has shrunk cyclones in the past it has also been known to pull storms together for the brief time spent over land where they bomb as soon as they cross back to open waters? Correct me if i`m mistaken here please chaps? Concerns for Dom Rep and Haiti nonetheless but if the track stays as projected I offer that Emily will not gain any more than a Cat1 and once it clears the Bahamas then a mere TD? But what do I know

No clear circulation etc. so still 91L tropical wave whereas yesterday many anticipated a TD at least and possibly TS by days end today (Sun 31st jul)? 10:15 UTC today and almost 12 hrs later the "messy" picture: Fluid dynamic physics or a storm in a teacup? lol laters storm followers

does such a phenomena as a "binary tropical depression" exist? Trying to decipher the following but need to do a lot of data trawling,,,? After tracking across Puerto Rico, the forecast becomes a lot more hazy as a ridge of high pressure will break down as a strong upper-level trough of low pressure pushes off of the US East Coast. This could help and lift Emily northward and then northeastward away from the US Southeast coast. It is not that clear cut, however, as the GFS and European ensemble guidance are forecasting that a ridge of high pressure will build back in by late next week and if this happens would cause Emily to potentially turn back towards the US Southeast coast. Given that this is still 6 days or so away, the forecast uncertainty on where Emily may go is pretty high

An interesting weekend watching the inevitable "Emily" forming then? All eyes on the GOES updates. Any links to surface pressure n such would be appreciated peeps? (lost all my faves:()

Hello Chaps/chapesses?, always great to see Cookie & SS posts when the W Atlantic/E pacific season begins, (personal favorite sector due to locality and many family n friends in or around the west Atlantic/East pacific) and little doubt that its favourable for a busy year? Mighty impressive kick off with Adrian (great pic indeed cookie, bettering the NASA 8am 10Jun local time) shot) Born from possible couple of degrees above normal recent sea temps in the area methinks? But now cat1 rapid weakening and "usual suspects" wind shear leaving Adrian in his death hallows. Really interested to see what/if any effect the "soon-to-be-ending"? record La Nina has on suggested projected Hurricanes no.s? (the recent snow in Hawaii and yesterdays falls up Snowdon in Wales are a different topic although thought provoking?)

Iv`e measured a ground frost in June! So it`s all teleconnections at the moment to decipher if its gonna be safe to plant out 40 "moneymaker" toms, raised cain beds are ready but the question is plant out or hold? Got a sneaky feeling some of us have not seen the last frosts and dare I say wintry precip in hillier northern regions :/

Thanks WS, I remember what it was now, he was filmed when he was 17 and an apprentice on one of his first outings before fate struck a few years later, The later programme feature aired was very sad when it showed the crew years before the tragedy occurred. thank you for the chart too may have been that the `bars tightened later in the day to bring the high seas? then again it don`t take much for high seas in that wonderful part of the country does it?

I was a schoolkid but remember this as relatives told us about it who lived in Helston the summer following when we had holidays down their in 82. BBC ran a special on it around 3-6 years ago on the anniversary (for choice of a better word?) date, extremely thought provoking but Mousehole is always very sombre on the 19th of Dec every year when the xmas light are turned off in respect, Was the youngest only 17 years old? One of the saddest true storys of courage in the face of doom i`ve ever read but many thanks for posting! (Without wishing to undermine your blog I find the 2 policeman who were swept of Cliff road, Porthleven by a storm surge wave to their deaths on 13th Dec 1978 equally fascinating? Here) (Wonder what the weather charts showed that day?)

Anything to cut to the main chase instantly without wading through 90% of crap is good for me Bye bye Model discussion poop and hello "the running of the model thread" In depth discussion is my favorite but lacks daily updates? bring it on NW!

Not sure but was this already a temporary roof from previous (up to 5 now?) failures and replacements? SkySports has had to switch to Fox running the Bucs@Redskins game as the Giants & Vikings game is now being played @ Detroit tomorrow.

very interesting to hear resemblances to the Oct. 87 storm? even more interesting to see what GFS has picked up with the development currently poised near the Canaries oh, great links btw GP

Patchy eye but most impressive structure otherwise? Welcoming any views from the usual HW residents on any possibilities of less northerly turn retrospectoive to all of the models so far?

Seems NOAA`s early August La Nina strengthening forecast has finally brought the area to a boil? Bermudians will be most worried that ALL the paths are showing a B-Line for them? all eyes on the upcoming BST 2100hrs advisory. Back after the Panthers & Giants game folks

(Seems my 4 month internet loss ended at very interesting time,,,) Latest Adv. 13 details sustained 70mph winds with minimum central pressure @995mb. We`ll see if the forecast "steady strengthening" occurs over the soon-to-enter waters >28'C. Interesting if the NASA TRMM satellite data proves good grounding and IF this goes against all but 1 in history that formed so far east goes monster size? Track forecast paths may be very comforting for quite a few folk!

VAT thread never seen so many part-timers? (self shamefully included) Any reports of visible fall? maybe a temp local "ash fall" thread?

Agree 100% with this

Great pics JdB Out walking the dogs in what few places of low light pollution their is I still noticed how bright it was in the last couple of nights, also why then that one of the dogs has been howling with the full moonlight shining through the curtain-less Kitchen window lol

Mr D posted This in the previous closed model discussion thread stating a No mans land scenario and as a result of the current to-ing and fro-ing IMO its got most credence despite its basic look and disregarding the last 5 week its a winter chart we are all familiar with seeing/transpiring?

If you prefer to wait instead of propogating your own then checkout Netto stores from April onwards! I picked a red chillie plant up last year for about £3? which after larger pot transplant got me about 50 fruits right up to November, some were a good 3inch and were quite hot, Weekly nitrogen potash feed and a warm sheltered south facing elevated spot also helped Its dormant in the shed now and looks ok as it has not died to ground level. Great site find "MAF" ;}

Nice one, I believe that many do not realise how much of threat sustained cold weather is to birds, especially smaller species, I always clear a space safe away from cats early in morning and late afternoon, Frequent fresh unfrozen water also essential if no streams/rivers etc are nearby!

So pleased theirs a few of us with these exact same thoughts stelmer ;]

4½ inch of level snow measured on our back garden, fine snow still falling steadily, measured a similar amount a few years ago but it was gone in a day, (every day this epic cold goes on the more and more I remember stuff back from the 70`s & 80`s, a better world when kids could play out in the snow all day without having to worry about `em)