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Andy_

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Posts posted by Andy_

  1. What an amazing set of runs this evening/ tonight. If we don't get some sort of lying snow in the next week or so then something is very wrong... lots of upgrades and downgrades to come still I imagine, but the cold weather essentially starts on Friday when this storm has moved on. In the short term Sunday could be interesting, and into slider low/ easterly territory after - The ECM earlier was nigh-on perfect for our region, as was the latest GFS later on. 

     

    post-8771-0-57099900-1421277138_thumb.pn

     

    The ominous finger of bitter 850s there pointing straight at us  :laugh: Previous experience with the models in mind I'm keeping myself contained right now haha. 

     

    • Like 1
  2. We were lucky last night, temperatures on the right side of marginal and precipitation heavy enough to aid evaporative cooling. Hence awoke to nearly a couple of cms and there is still a cover on grass, roofs etc but thawing.

     

    Fells are plastered white - a winter wonderland.

     

     

    Already beaten last winters total snow cover and days of snowfall - was always going to be easy mind..

     

    Funnily enough, the last place I saw lying snow was in the lakes back in March 2013,

     

    Back to playing the waiting game for now, nothing in the near future in terms of snow, although cold PM air is never far away in the models and may lead to more interest as we've had the last few days. 

  3. Just had some heavy sleety snow (mostly sleet) in Newcastle city centre, 

     

    That Met Office snow warning for tomorrow just clinging onto the Tyne and Wear area, though their hourly forecast still has overcast conditions, areas south of here should get the best precipitation 

  4. Latest GFS (albeit the 18z) is showing the precipitation a lot further north early on Friday, looking more like the Met Office warning area

     

    prectypeuktopo.png

     

    Inland would receive quite a lot of snow from this if it's modelled correctly, great opportunity at lower levels also 

    • Like 2
  5. I think the southern half of our region has a shout Friday? but I agree I think overnight and tomorrow morning is our best bet

     

    Possibly yeah if the area of precipitation to the south is far enough north, but the area over Southern Scotland doesn't seem to be modelled to move much further south... slightly confusing! 

     

     

    "This is a complex development and details may yet change. Therefore this alert is likely to be updated again on Thursday, as confidence grows in the track and timing of this system" - Probably why then haha...

  6. Snow and Ice warning out from met office for Friday

     

    Issued at: 1129 on Wed 10 Dec 2014

    Valid from: 0010 on Fri 12 Dec 2014

    Valid to: 1000 on Fri 12 Dec 2014

     

    A weather system will cross to the south of this region early on Friday. This will bring rain to many areas but snow is likely over some of the higher ground, such as the Pennines and Southern Uplands, and rain may turn to snow at lower levels before it clears eastwards. The snow may be heavy in places, possibly giving 2-5 cm at low levels and maybe 10 cm or more above around 200 m. Following clearance, there is also the risk of widespread ice on untreated surfaces in time for the morning rush hour. The public should be aware of the potential of disruption to travel and also of hazardous driving conditions. This is an update to the warning issued on Tuesday to move the risk of snow away from the central belt of Scotland and into northern England.

     

    Chief Forecaster's assessment

     

    An area of low pressure, currently forming in the mid-Atlantic, is likely to run quickly northeast somewhere across central Britain early on Friday. On its northern flank, cold air may be drawn into the system, with a band of rain across southern Scotland and northern England possibly turning to snow, even to low levels, clearing skies then quickly leading to icy conditions late in the night. This is a complex development and details may yet change. Therefore this alert is likely to be updated again on Thursday, as confidence grows in the track and timing of this system.

     

    Areas affected

     

    Northumberland, Durham, Newcastle upon Tyne, Gateshead, Darlington, Hartlepool, Middlesbrough, Redcar and Cleveland, Stockton-on-Tees, Sunderland, North Tyneside, South Tyneside

     

    Can't really see anything that suggests the precipitation is going to be this far north on Friday, so not sure why the met warning extends so high,

     

    Tomorrow morning looks like the best bet at the minute, light snow forecast for most of the region, heavier inland 

  7. Hi Guys,

     

    Hope to see this thread full of excitement and reports of snow falling this Winter  :)

     

    We have a lot more to be hopeful for than last year, with the soon to be famous or infamous OPI, and lots of positive comments over the past few weeks in both the strat and mod threads...  with the latter hoping to improve a little if we can get out of the rut we're currently a bit stuck in (and may be for a while longer). 

     

    December is going to be one of those months on this forum I think, best keep a level head hahah 

    • Like 2
  8. In December 2010 we had around 50cm of snow here. It was insane.

     

    I had 30cm (1 ft) in my back garden level snow then near the north sea coast and without much elevation, incredible and I'm not sure I'll ever see that much again round these parts!

     

    Keeping last Winter in mind i'd be happy with 1cm this year 

  9. I've actually witnessed thundersnow more than once, with the most memorable experience being sat in my GCSE English class in 2009 appreciating enough that there was a heavy snow shower, but then for there to be a massive flash and crack of thunder was incredible and at the same time a bit confusing! Very impressive, and the ultimate gift of aggressive convection off the North Sea to deliver both heavy snow and thunder and lightning in one shower. 

  10. Haven't been on here in a while, been away past couple weeks but got back earlier in the week. I was awoken yesterday morning to thunder booming into my house at around 9am, thought i was still at the campsite and a truck was driving past or something i was that confused! Then a big flash and more thunder, though I think Shields got the brunt of the storm with some flash flooding occurring in prone spots.

     

    One of those booms of thunder would have been where a house was hit in Hebburn, must have been a hell of a fright for the owners! 

     

    post-8771-0-90582300-1404919958_thumb.jp

     

    http://www.shieldsgazette.com/news/local-news/hebburn-house-struck-by-lightning-1-6717257

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