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nodrog

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    Winter Model Discussion 18Z 19/1/13 onwards.

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    The huge low that is shown in the atlantic, would it ever be possible to have one that deep coming from the east in winter, or is only the west because of the moisture over the atlantic

    Not really. You can get deep lows winding up as they move over - think a few years ago one (1/4 the size) moved down the East Coast thus raised flooding alerts ect. But in general it would be a rare event. Unless im wrong im sure someone on here will correct me.

    Hurricane Gordon

    in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide

    Posted

    Hey, it's named after me!

    Tropical Storm Gordon formed in the Atlantic overnight but was expected to steer clear of land, meteorologists said.

    The storm was centered about 585 miles east of Bermuda and was moving northeast at about 14 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.

    Gordon was expected to intensify slightly in coming days and could turn into a hurricane by the week's end. But the tropical storm will likely stay over open waters.

    It's a small tropical storm, with winds up to 40 mph extending only 25 miles out from the center of the system, forecasters said.

    Gordon is the seventh named storm of this hurricane season, which was predicted to see 12 to 15 named storms, of which, up to eight could be hurricanes. LINK

    Fronts

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Tangerine Lion

    As regards pressures, airmass and fronts.

    1. In SUMMER is an Occluded Front is an area of squeezed walm air pushed above to masses of moving cooler air thus forming quite unstable conditions in that area?

    If so is an occluded front more liable to produce a greater risk of unsettled weather ie : hail and thunder with strong gusts over a longer period of time than just a moving cold front pushing a warm mass.

    2. In the WINTER a cold front can cause snow depending on the amount of moisture in the walm mass area or at the front edge?

    3. In the summer high pressure is generally warm fair weather but in the winter cool settled weather is the norm?

    4. Low pressure regardless the time of year is unsettled but not always stormy?

    I respect there maybe more 'machanics' behind what I say but is the basic principle right?

    I know some of these questions seem basic but I have always deamed the above to be correct and I just need a bit of clarity to help my selfeducation as sometimes the weather models / forecasts confuse or conflict ones train of thought.

    Model Output Discussion - 12th December Onward

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    GFS might be calming the LP's down a bit and allowing walmer or milder conditions in and out of cooler periods for example :

    Thurs 15/12 (+75) 00z -5's on the 850's then at 159 we have a 10, four days later. Very up and down activity that can get us into double figures before christmas. (Compared to last).

    This low pressure is very much south of the UK shores in my mind, a classic Franco event that should get the French talking about the weather... just like us Brits, then a short lived secondary low spins down from Southern Ireland into the same region 12 hrs later. Not much in it really.

    As regards us guys here on Blighty I would be surprised if lower levels as stated to gain any snowfall to take picts off... just don't see it. Think the models might be a bit to excited (influenced by the netweather vibe prob).

    Better to see the next few day's runs to understand any pattern.

    Going back under the covers now, ttfn.

    Model Output Discussion - 5th December - 11th December

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Tangerine Lion

    To me... Over the next week the models show the low pressures bringing cooler periods after sweeping past the UK with a good chance of snow mainly in the hills but also at low levels the more north and west you are. 'Short lived' events with blustery conditions and wintery showers but still more active than of late. Poss deep low to follow same track as this one over Thurs across Scotland with a sence of higher windspeads. Similar to the mid 90's say 1995 around christmas, strong winds and cooler themes.

    Oh BECO are warning also.

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