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nodrog

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    Model Output Discussion - 21st - 28th November

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Tangerine Lion

    Plenty of 'low' energy from the Atlantic rubbing against the 'high' pressure that gets gently pushed east as they storm in. The Euro High is preventing the Lows coming into the country which is a saver as some of these Windstorms have and look propper vicious. BECO have downgraded tonights from a VSW to GSW but Mon / Tues looks like we may encounter a rough patch.

    Rtavn848.png

    Model Output Discussion - Early October Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Tangerine Lion

    My turn...

    Next week, to me looks like snow might not just fall on the hills and mountins of Scotland. Weak Snow fall looks possible as far south as Cumbria and the Pennines.

    I can also read that the wind will be strong, possible gales for the Outer-Heb's and the exposed North West. With the combo of the colder air this will have an impact on the wind chill for the above mentioned areas.

    Obviously if the milder air moves in across the UK and supercede the colder air the snow will obviously retreat back unless the cold air remains.

    One thing for sure, the snow level will be lower that previous years excluding the latter three thus keeping an early cold theme for the rest of Autumn... so far.

    Ttfn.

    Added later : John beat me to it! doh.gif

    Fantasy Island (fi) Threshold Test

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Tangerine Lion

    Stewfox : "Most of the FI will be based on model runs e.g T300, so not sure what you mean FI based on things after the model runs ?"

    Thank you Stewfox, many members (new or old) are not sure when people state "that is FI". The FI bench mark seems to change like the seasons which I find difficult to understand. A better explanation to this title and a fixed time frame to such model runs perhaps as you explain.

    Some members have stated FI within a week before today and some as you show are several days later.

    Thank you for the topic replies, more welcomed as Im sure this title will crop-up in other areas.

    Without Prejustice : I dont want the more advanced to take a 'pitty' look on new members to prove they are better thus confusing the matter, this topic is only suggestion, not to be taken into serious debate.

    From JOHN HOLMES off the Forecast Model topic :

    "how about instead of FI we call it CCL

    Cloud Cuckoo Land

    or

    WFN

    Weather Fans Nightmare

    ??

    For those new to the idea of model watching there is nothing wrong in looking and hoping at charts that show the weather type you hope for, be it storms, heat or snow and cold. Just as long as you realise the chances of it occurring increase as the time scale increases.

    Forecast accuracy at T+12 is probably over 98%

    At T+72 about 75-80%

    ByT+144 its around 60-65%

    By T+240 50-60% as a broad figure

    and by T+384 less than 10%.

    If you go on those average figures it will give you an idea of just how likely your hopes are to be fulfilled.

    At ranges in excess of T+96 its best to compare all the models, especially GFS, UK Met(out to T+144), ECM out to T+240, and also GEM seems to do fairly well at these later outputs but quite so good closer too.

    Beyond T+144 and then other things like teleconnections you here folk talk about need to be given as much weighting as the basic synoptic outputs, things like the 500mb anomaly charts from GFS, ECMWF and NOAA, the first two valid for T+240 hours with NOAA issuing 2 charts one for 6-10 days ahead and another 8-14 days with each evening issue.

    Further out then AO, NAO, MJO and ENSO all need watching carefully to see if there is support for the basic synoptic model outputs.

    Along with these basic ouputs look at the Ensemble outputs for the different models as well.

    For what some of these terms that some of you may not be familar with take a look in the Net Wx Guides section, accronyms etc will give you some basic ideas.

    Hope this post is ok admin/mods as it may help some folk get their heads around what is likely to become ever more frantic FI searches as we head into winter? "

    Hope you did not mind me moving it to here John.

    Fantasy Island (fi) Threshold Test

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Tangerine Lion

    (Mods move topic if required).

    Fantasy Island (FI)

    As a recent discussion about Fantasy Island (FI) has occured I think from my experience it is of some value for members to agree with a common understanding to this title.

    Fantasy Island could be commited to several time frames and re titled as agreed or just bolted to one single time frame.

    All members should use this topic to debate where the origin of FI belongs and this to be the agreed threshold test.

    Fantasy Island is a period of time after the 'Model Runs' when the confidence of any forecast is purley speculative. Several Model Runs would have to be consistant to produce a better chance of any weather event actually happening closer to real time. This is where the boundary of real time and fantasy island needs to be established and followed as a threshold test.

    Discussion and comments below.

    Model Output Discussion - Early October Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Tangerine Lion

    Is it just me or is anyone else seeing a very mild/warm week for the South next week? Sunshine will certainly be at a premium but I'd imagine most of England will experience above average temperatures with some very warm nights for the time of year.

    Yup, it ends with above ave temps (not that walm as it seems as it's Oct now) and below ave rain. The North though... oh forget it. sorry.gif

    Gibby should be along soon...

    Acronyms and Abbreviations

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I suspect you are talking about Tom Presutti who produces lrfs which I think, no expert on this, often goes in for freezing winters. Maybe someone with tongue in cheek has nicknamed him Polar Presutti?

    Many thanks! Ill pass this onto the person who was asking about this.

    They said when its cold and rains they panic as they have had a flood. (So it be told.)

    Ttfn.

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