nodrog

We seem to be talking more and more about the ECM than the GFS these days. Is it down to a better 'model for topic' confidence or just that the ECM is showing more evidence of a cooler period... sorry I just get lost sometimes?

Thoughts and prayers for the lost seaman in the Irish sea as there boat sank due to poor and dangerous conditions last night . I hope they are all well and found safe . God bless them all and speed to their safety .

Yes! Storms not snow. Nice ECM!

Similar to this one back in JAN 2010. A PV is a cyclone at the polar regions that stays for a while... wikipedia

Plenty of 'low' energy from the Atlantic rubbing against the 'high' pressure that gets gently pushed east as they storm in. The Euro High is preventing the Lows coming into the country which is a saver as some of these Windstorms have and look propper vicious. BECO have downgraded tonights from a VSW to GSW but Mon / Tues looks like we may encounter a rough patch.

Glad this post is on. British Extratropical Cyclone Org have put a CSW out, (as mentioned in other topic)... beco.org.uk METO on a yellow for 80mph for Shetland. 100mph winds out at sea.

I know im against the grain here as most are snow lovers, but this Extratropical system expected to hit as low as 944mb tonight! Models show is between Iceland and North West Scotland in the Atlantic... over the Faroe Islands will be 'battered' with ave gusts 50 -80 mph WSW. Looks wild for the begining of the week also... nice!

EXTRATROPICAL 'XAVER' is going to produce over 90mph winds at sea or poss more. Pressure est 944mb by 1am tonight. BECO have issued a CSW this morning... beco.org.uk Going to be really squally and gusty... better than snow for me. (Sorry Snow lovers). Ttfn.

Deep low for the North this weekend... beco jumping on this one. beco.org.uk .

My Turn. Next weeek turning cooler, wet and windy the more north you go. Squally with a chance of wintery showers for higher more northern hills from the Pennines up. Snow for most highest hills in Scotland and Cumbria only above 1000m, very cold and brisk. Autumn has officially landed... in time for the Winter take-over. Ttfn.

My turn... Next week, to me looks like snow might not just fall on the hills and mountins of Scotland. Weak Snow fall looks possible as far south as Cumbria and the Pennines. I can also read that the wind will be strong, possible gales for the Outer-Heb's and the exposed North West. With the combo of the colder air this will have an impact on the wind chill for the above mentioned areas. Obviously if the milder air moves in across the UK and supercede the colder air the snow will obviously retreat back unless the cold air remains. One thing for sure, the snow level will be lower that previous years excluding the latter three thus keeping an early cold theme for the rest of Autumn... so far. Ttfn. Added later : John beat me to it!

Quick, the aliens are coming! Who the flip are Exacta Weather?

Stewfox : "Most of the FI will be based on model runs e.g T300, so not sure what you mean FI based on things after the model runs ?" Thank you Stewfox, many members (new or old) are not sure when people state "that is FI". The FI bench mark seems to change like the seasons which I find difficult to understand. A better explanation to this title and a fixed time frame to such model runs perhaps as you explain. Some members have stated FI within a week before today and some as you show are several days later. Thank you for the topic replies, more welcomed as Im sure this title will crop-up in other areas. Without Prejustice : I dont want the more advanced to take a 'pitty' look on new members to prove they are better thus confusing the matter, this topic is only suggestion, not to be taken into serious debate. From JOHN HOLMES off the Forecast Model topic : "how about instead of FI we call it CCL Cloud Cuckoo Land or WFN Weather Fans Nightmare ?? For those new to the idea of model watching there is nothing wrong in looking and hoping at charts that show the weather type you hope for, be it storms, heat or snow and cold. Just as long as you realise the chances of it occurring increase as the time scale increases. Forecast accuracy at T+12 is probably over 98% At T+72 about 75-80% ByT+144 its around 60-65% By T+240 50-60% as a broad figure and by T+384 less than 10%. If you go on those average figures it will give you an idea of just how likely your hopes are to be fulfilled. At ranges in excess of T+96 its best to compare all the models, especially GFS, UK Met(out to T+144), ECM out to T+240, and also GEM seems to do fairly well at these later outputs but quite so good closer too. Beyond T+144 and then other things like teleconnections you here folk talk about need to be given as much weighting as the basic synoptic outputs, things like the 500mb anomaly charts from GFS, ECMWF and NOAA, the first two valid for T+240 hours with NOAA issuing 2 charts one for 6-10 days ahead and another 8-14 days with each evening issue. Further out then AO, NAO, MJO and ENSO all need watching carefully to see if there is support for the basic synoptic model outputs. Along with these basic ouputs look at the Ensemble outputs for the different models as well. For what some of these terms that some of you may not be familar with take a look in the Net Wx Guides section, accronyms etc will give you some basic ideas. Hope this post is ok admin/mods as it may help some folk get their heads around what is likely to become ever more frantic FI searches as we head into winter? " Hope you did not mind me moving it to here John.

(Mods move topic if required). Fantasy Island (FI) As a recent discussion about Fantasy Island (FI) has occured I think from my experience it is of some value for members to agree with a common understanding to this title. Fantasy Island could be commited to several time frames and re titled as agreed or just bolted to one single time frame. All members should use this topic to debate where the origin of FI belongs and this to be the agreed threshold test. Fantasy Island is a period of time after the 'Model Runs' when the confidence of any forecast is purley speculative. Several Model Runs would have to be consistant to produce a better chance of any weather event actually happening closer to real time. This is where the boundary of real time and fantasy island needs to be established and followed as a threshold test. Discussion and comments below.

High pressure still showing as stated in previous posts... fog lovers may like it.

BLACKPOOL > Wind not half as bad, max gust 31mph from yesterday's 54mph that damaged our windmill .http://www.blackpoolgazette.co.uk/news/local/winds_batter_fylde_coast_1_3847809 . Generally cloudy with weaker areas showing slight blue. Chilly and fresh. Weather Station states 'Rain' later.

Yup, it ends with above ave temps (not that walm as it seems as it's Oct now) and below ave rain. The North though... oh forget it. Gibby should be along soon...

Max Gust in Blackpool today - 54.8mph. Hail and odd lightning since 21:00hrs. Very cold in the wind... sign of things to come?

My weather station stats for today: MAX GUST 54.8mph South Shore, Blackpool, ENGLAND — Current Conditions Daily Summary for October 6, 2011

Thanks Gibby, yes models do look like they are all reading from the same page. Wet and windy mid week then a real good aspect for Autum latter this week with a cooler theme. What a contrast to last weeks bonus! Keep up the good write-up's.

Many thanks! Ill pass this onto the person who was asking about this. They said when its cold and rains they panic as they have had a flood. (So it be told.) Ttfn.

Not sure if this is the right topic to ask her but some one has just asked... " What is Polar Presuti" in weather terms??? I really don't know this one can anyone help us??

Gibby. "Its a huge commitment to report on the models every time Gibby. Thank for your explanation as it helps those who may not be as advanced as some. Keep up the good work as im sure 100's of us all read your reports and appreciate them." Gordon.

BECO (beco.org.uk) have downgraded it from a GALE STORM WARNING CAT 2 to CAT 1. Still providing 65mph winds for Northen Ireland, Northen England and Southern Scotland from 2pm.

I know we have not gone through Katia... dont start. But look...Maria expected to upgrade CAT 1 by WED's. Mods put this in new topic if you wish.