Barbmac

No snow in West Malvern! Just jolly cold at 1.4 C and with a chilly NEly wind. Edit: Looking out north-facing window, can see a line of cloud approaching, must be the small area I can see on the radar north of here.

If you did do it purely as an attention-seeking device then most likely any forecast would fall flat on its face and you'd be discredited pretty quickly, and have had your 15 minutes of fame! However, it was your prediction of the November low pressure that caught my attention, and I think you called that one pretty well, even if sceptically thinking it might be possible to be 'lucky' with an educated guess as some said on your other forum. As you say, you need to build up a track record, and that is going to take some time. But good luck to you! You've probably mentioned the answer to this somewhere else but are you just forecasting around the Europe/GB area or do you look world-wide? Or would that be just way too much work? :wacko:

That's one hell of a forecast, MB, and you're brave to put it 'out there' for everyone to see. I would hope that if the charts do begin to shape up as you've outlined then the Met Office would issue warnings in time for people to evacuate if they're in danger areas. And hopefully the Thames flood barrier would do its job, even so, that's a nasty storm. I hope those living on the Continent would have similar precautions. When you spoke of a rare event I was hoping for something a little gentler! :blink: Totally agree with this sentiment! I've an open mind to new ways of forecasting until they're proved to be on the wrong track, so I'm watching this thread with interest. Yes 'chaotic' can be taken incorrectly to mean 'random'. Where is Charlie Eppes (Numbers) when you need him? B)

Hello MurcieBoy I am intrigued by your attempts at forecasting and look forward to your next (even more so if it's a rare event)! Might I suggest that if you have uncertainties such as you had over the high pressure, that you indicate that in your forecast, for example, you said: You could in your forecast say you predict a pressure of 1040 mb ±5mb for London, then give the reason for your margin of error as a note below so people know why you have that level of uncertainty. Just a suggestion, helps make your forecasts that bit more scientific and also help to combat the doubting Thomases! As to my thoughts on long term forecasting, I am doubtful that the same patterns will repeat going ever further (or for that matter back) into the future (or past), or if they do, then there must be some larger (or more accurately longer) cycles/rhythms in force that would alter their effect and so reflect climate change. All incredibly interesting though! I wish we had more detailed weather data going further back!

Hi everyone, this is my first post although I've been lurking for about a year! Just have to say this year's storm chasing has been incredible, am really enjoying watching the online stream or catching up with the pictures - awesome shots, guys. Just watched the OK hailstorm clip on YouTube, ended up watching a few more there! Unbelievable - have only ever seen hail of about 1 cm diameter, that was in Australia. Anyway just wanted to say well done to the team and good luck for more exciting and safe storm chases!