Barbmac

-4.8oC in West Malvern this morning, frost everywhere. A real nip from Jack Frost to see us out of this month. Looks like it's going to be a clear start to the day too.

Ahhh Adiabatic lapse rates! Those were the days. I did Geography way back when too, got a A but not in the UK, I got mine Down Under. I would have loved to be a Meteorologist but my physics ineptitude put paid to that! This morning darn nippy again, -2.1oC at the moment, but the wind has died down a little. And there's a fair patch of blue sky to the north and west of here. I don't mind cold, dry and bright winter days. It's the flat grey skies that depress me. This January has had a few too many dull days for my liking. I wouldn't mind a good winter storm next month! We haven't really had that much rain here for a long time, only that heavy snow back in December.

Better than we had here! But it only reached 0.0oC today and it hasn't done that in weeks, so definitely getting colder here. Felt very cold and bone-chilling outside in the brisk wind. No sign of any precipitation, just leaden skies. Maybe February will bring more of the white stuff.

That cracks me up! I wonder when a grey cloud officially becomes a white cloud? :unsure:

Light snow, hmm... Malvern's only got grey cloud. :smiliz46: Malvern 5 day forecast BBC

Hello you lot! Still hoping for snow? :smilz38: I think we're out of luck for now. Weather's been chilly and damp in Malvern but we have had a fair bit of sunshine and brightness too, and frost over a few nights, a bit slippery on the roads first thing as it's been below freezing most mornings. It's 3.5oC now, but I saw some cloudiness outside so I think no negative values tonight.

Damn and I had so much to say about fish and what they cost! It HAS gotten a lot colder today, well the decline began yesterday where we were, dropping down to around 4oC for the first time in ages, during the day. It was around 1.2oC when I got up this morning and it's down to 2.0oC now. There's plenty of time for more of the white stuff this winter, we must keep the faith! :smiliz19: Peeked outside and it's a clear sky so might even go below 0 tonight. The next few days do look to be fine though. I have to admit it was nice to see the sun!

I think in MB's defence, he has been studying such data for some time, have you? Because you think it's absurb, doesn't mean there isn't something of value in it.

Well the rain missed us entirely, even though I could see it to the north west at one point, and we've got dry windy weather, 9.2oC.

Not at the rate they keep changing their forecasts! Yes that scenario seems to be much more likely, weather turning cooler and drier. However not looking very dry right now, radar is full of bright echoes to the west of here, I expect rain to be imminent in Malvern within the next half hour, I can see it approaching from the NW. It's also very windy and quite mild, 8.5oC currently.

:lol: ! West Malvern's starting to feel very left out. We get plenty of rain, fog, snow, wind, even sunshine (only in the afternoon of course!)

Aha so there's a Rain Shield as well as a Snow Shield in existence! B)

Just watched the 6pm BBC weather forecast and basically I'm more worried about flooding in the Midlands (Severn Valley) than snow at the moment. Looks like we're in the grip of the jet stream which is going to batter us with frontal systems and lots of heavy rain right into the weekend.

Just started raining in West Malvern after looking pretty threatening all day. Could see dark clouds over Wales and Herefordshire from where we are on the Hill earlier on. Currently 5.0oC, gusty wind. Looks as if we're going to have a period of mild wet weather for the next few days at the very least, but I'm not giving up on another cold spell later this month or into February.

A balmy 6.4oC in West Malvern, almost all our snow's gone now, we had about 5 cm this morning which was very slippery for cars to get about on as we're on a hill road. Certainly way warmer now, I'll be getting my T-shirt out soon.

Temperature rising to 1.0oC, snow on the ground is beginning to thaw and go soft underfoot. Still in thick hill fog.

Snow's pretty much stopped falling in West Malvern but we're shrouded in hill fog so can't see beyond about 25 meters!

Sounds a reasonable enough forecast to me, Andy! Although perhaps at altitude it can be more disruptive depending exactly what time it falls, does it coincide with the rush hour. Where I live on the Malvern Hills, it *could* be a lot lighter stuff down in Great Malvern. That sometimes happens here, we have all sorts of problems with a snowfall yet down lower people are driving round with hardly more than a sprinkling. At the moment it is falling into the disruptive category here as people can't get their cars out easily without digging and gritting! But yeah, agree that people ought to be a bit more tolerant!

Ayyy Carumba! :o West Malvern is covered in about 5 cm of snow! Great big juicy flakes coming down. Radar looks impressive! It is however, only -0.1oC so the slightest warming and it'll thaw again. But boy it looks pretty right now! Not to my neighbour though, he's just got stuck in it!

Unless all the other storm chasers also know and all turn up at once, thereby jamming the roads!

As you have said previously, MB, you are at the early stages of your method in terms of seeing whether it holds up to give you the results you're hoping for, in forecasting terms. The only way forward to get to that point is time, time and putting out forecasts of what you think is brewing on the weather horizon, waiting to see how close you are to reality, and then tweaking your model if you find you're not hitting the spot. You've also said that a book might be in the offing once you get close to a decent result. But that, you admit, is probably a long way off, especially given that you need time to see how your forecasts pan out. That approach is fine if that's what you choose to do, but in that case you'll be leaving us all in the dark on the details as to how you go about your modelling for a long time. How long, a year? Two years to get the results? Then another long wait whilst you write your book. I think that if your method is showing even half-decent results after the next couple of forecasts people will be champing at the bit to know more about your methodology. I know I will! I won't want to wait 2-3-4 years for the book. We want the T-shirt! B) I don't see why only a book can do justice to your subject. You could set up a website or even a simple blog and write there. You don't really need a finished work to publish that way, either. You could start with a general intro, such as Roger has done, and go from there. I honestly don't see interest being maintained in your forecasts if you don't at some (near) future date begin to elucidate something about your methods, because there are a lot of intelligent people on this forum alone who'll be keen to learn more, and without that chance I think their interest might wane. Maybe that's the shape of things to come, Candice! I find it hard to believe one could ever be that precise about the weather, but who knows! There could also be huge benefits, think of agriculture! We could still have weather forums - Severe weather forecast for x date, where will you be? How is it for you? Don't see why that wouldn't continue.

Quote MetO for the W.Midlands: Heavy Snow Fri 7 Jan A band of snow will move south to north turning to rain. Several centimetres of snow are possible, particularly over hills. Issued at: 1119 Tue 4 Jan :smiliz19: Although the turning to rain bit is pants. @andy_leics: I'm surprised your Mum hasn't got strict instructions to wake you at the slightest appearance of a white flake!!

Am newish to this forum so this is the first time I've come across your theories. I have just read the first link you posted and found it all fascinating, and will read through the second thread when I have more time to digest it. Most interesting indeed!

For me the worst weather experience was being caught out in a nasty thunderstorm. I had travelled a couple of train stops to an evening doctor's appointment and whilst in the waiting room heard the rumbles of thunder approaching. It had been one of those humid summer days with thunder in the offing. As is often the case, my appointment was running late, and I sat and sat whilst other patients shuffled in and out, meanwhile the storm was getting closer and closer. I thought perhaps it would pass by before I'd been seen. Eventually I was the last person to be called into the surgery. After being seen I came out and the surgery was preparing to close up. The storm by now was almost overhead. I dreaded having to walk to the station, which was about a quarter of a mile away. I don't like thunderstorms at the best of times and if I'd had any chance of doing so I'd have loitered in the doctor's till it had passed, but as they were closing up I had no choice but to go out. Emerging from the surgery I cowered and jogged my way towards the train station, feeling terrified, the lightning now pretty much too close for comfort as the storm reached its peak. I got to the station and... unfortunately had to cross the tracks to get to the right platform, and that entailed going up an open flight of metal steps, across a metal bridge, then down to the other platform! I really couldn't imagine anything I'd less like to do at that point. I waited near the bottom of the steps until there was a bright flash of lightning followed by a crack of thunder, and immediately ran up the stairs, over the top and down the other side, sheltering under a perspex seating area that was still open to the front. I cowered in the corner as the storm raged and I had to wait 20 minutes for my return train to show up! I'll never forget that experience.

Have just read through your first post Roger and this is all very interesting stuff, even if most of it is still quite sketchily described to begin with. I am no climate/meteorology guru by any means, but have always believed that all systems must interconnect on this planet and outwards to others beyond. We are not in a bubble but affected by our satellite the Moon, the Sun and even the other planets in the solar system. What you're describing sounds like a more 'holistic' view of meteorology. I will certainly be following any future posts you make in order to better understand what your system entails.