AdrianHull

I'm sticking to to bird behaviour and thier berry consumption. I trust nowt now

Well after todays charts I'm going back to the old school weather forecasting by observing bird behaviour counting Berries on trees to work out what's coming next. Might go and see bob the farmer who has worked this valley for the last forty years for his prediction. These constant churning out of charts don't have a clue after 3 to 4 days. Is there something brewing? I don't even know myself now so I might as well flip a coin But this chase has been great Eyes down for the Ecm...Good chance it might be a blow torch Azores or we tap in to that Scandinavian cold. Or Ireland becomes obliterated by a hurricane low. Take your pick I won't judge

Next band of heavy persistent snow showers should be arriving around 10pm tonight. Looking much more promising than last night so far.

IR looking great for this evening for heavy prolonged showers. Big convection event happening over Skagerrak Strait in Norway Anywhere from Aberdeen to Hull wil be in the firing Line Cloud radar United Kingdom - View live satellite images | SAT24 WWW.SAT24.COM View live satellite images of United Kingdom on the cloud radar at SAT24 and see where the sun is shining or the rain is falling.

More organised band forming in the North Sea. Not sure how much inland it will come. It seems to be getting ate up as soon as it reaches the main land. Little more wind needed hopefully!

You generally only find the yellow snow around the lamposts but thanks for the update I'll take a wide berth

Far from over looking at the GFS... If we can get that Scandinavian high in and consistently modelled then it's game on. Massive ECM in the next hour and a half.

Not quite what I'm seeing. Latest runs have us still have us in below average. EBS and flows and all of that . What happens past this weekend is is impossible to predict. Lots of ups and downs until then

Very knee jerky in here this morning. I'll be back once "all" of the morning models run before I have my guess what the weather will be like in 10 days time

I'll give you the wind and rain charts but thunder is way too dynamic Ok then only post charts that are laden with snow from any timeframe not dry ones

Can we all just put the snow charts away and then bring them back out within the 48 hour time frame at the most. Cheers

Tapping into some really cold air

I hate using the word but this chart looks "entrenched" might even achieve some killer icicles from my leaky gutters!

No cold rain in sight

It's moved South on the recent runs helping us draw in colder air from the ENE bringing in snow showers from the North Sea. Much better setup in the long run but still could change

The uppers would have to 13 degrees less than the surface water temperature as a rule of thumb Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99584-model-output-discussion-into-winter/?do=findComment&comment=4960995

The uppers would have to 13 degrees less than the surface water temperature as a rule of thumb

In grand scheme of things personally I like seeing that low go further south as it has opened up the UK for a much colder solution which will work out better in the long run. Won't be looking at any snowfall charts until the day before if this pattern pans out as they would only be picked up in the shortest of time frames with accuracy.

You may be right but until they become above average within the 7 day range I will refrain to taking FL as gospel.

You must be referring to the GFS ? UKMO and ECM haven't showed "above average" temperature for days now. If you're just referring to your own back yard then that's not a representation of what the general outlook is throughout the UK

Quite a few "told you so statements this morning in here" If you bang the drum long enough guessing a return to mild you will eventually get that moment After last nights great charts a backtrack was to be expected but that tide will come back in again for the cold. So much to play for and a lot to look forward to in the next 3 or 4 days

I find if you can find a balance between taking FL charts with a pinch of salt and looking for the finer details of the reliable it's great fun. But all posters are different. You get the day 10 posters who crave for that told you so moment. There are possibly people who won't even look out the window in the next days as the cold spell passes and view the weather from charts.. But everyone is different. From Thursday onwards I'll be solely in the regionals enjoying the present and out enjoying it, or looking at my lampost

I once backed a horse for 150/1 and it won . But fair point

Could you explain why to Newbies?

Fantastic Ecm.... This is just not going away. As soon as we think there is a breakdown out pops a Scandi high well in to Fl . I'm always quite sceptical but I'm slightly starting to get excited. Trying not to look past Thursday or Friday though.