AdrianHull

Great day today for snow! Showers are really picking up now!

Most within 48 hours but still sometimes wrong... And if any one model gets a day 10 chart right it's either coincidence or a lucky guess. Any charts after 5 days should be used as a trend and not for the finer details

For convection the difference between the water temperature between the surface and 850 mb should be at least 13 degrees Celsius. Might be other factors too but that's rule of thumb.

The agony of a precipitation chart 11 days away... More chance of winning the lottery... We need to reel it in a bit!

Couldn't agree more! I'm not interested in the fine details of day 10 charts apart from the trend. But it's obsessed over and over to the point of the reliable timeframe getting diluted with FL charts!

10 days not 7

Day 10, Day 10, Day 10..... Any chance of a day 10 thread mods?

Keeping away from the model thread today. It's getting highly mundane with people's constant detailed analysis of troughs and shortwaves on day 10 charts. Why don't people just use it as a trend and give details on more realistic time framed charts. It seems that some people constantly chase that day 10 chart and it could be blowing a blizzard outside but they would miss it just for that "told you so moment". Rant over

Wouldn't take much to tap into those northern winds especially in North England.

Griceland Wedge! Could be better for snow prospect?

For your location though. 1 to -2 for me all week but this should be mentioned in the regionals as it can be confusing. Hopefully they are wrong for you though. Seems a bit extreme...

Are you speaking about your neck of the woods or UK as a whole? There is a moan thread if you would like to use that

And cold rain!

Any chance of an uppers output discussion thread mods? This is starting to get tedious!

There is no point looking at the finer details this far out and you shouldn't treat the ensembles as gospel. They are a guide... Personally I think you're right but I know from experience we could be baking in an Azores high this far out so I would never call it. Focus on the day five charts and anything else after that as a trend.

But this is a day 10 chart so it's not exactly what it's going to do... Bit misleading....

Looks like people are taking every run as gospel today on here. Background signals are great. leave day tens finer details in the bin .... Highly frustrating read on the model chat today.

Seems to be a lot of negativity towards the positive people who dream of Narnia type weather in the very far reaches of FL in the model feed tonight. I say let people dream. If we constantly.have to pick the negatives and pull people for being positive what's even the point of extended charts. I personally don't think it will verify but let people dream and hope without shooting them down like a couple of posters are doing tonight.

Wow... Turning into a true Greenland High in Fl... It's been a few years since we have seen one if it verifies!

Nice 3 inches of snow last night. Not sure what all the winter over moans are for lol

Well the next couple of days are looking very festive indeed. Currently an inch of snow outside and hopefully a couple more tonight. Hopefully the charts for Christmas verify as we fair very well from polar maritime. But even if we can keep the low temperature predicted over the festive period it will beat any onslaught from a mild Atlantic. Any prediction for a mild January is poppycock the weather is way to dynamic for that whatever the background signals indicate. If they are always right why are we even here debating it.

Just a Dusting up here. 0 degrees but nice to take the little one out in it

Just behind Blanchland this Morning. First taste of winter...

Seems quite conductive out there though. Still a bit out but they seem to be coming from nowhere so still a good chance

Should be a bit more activity in an hour or so for the Newcastle/ tyne valley area due to a long streamer being produced out in the north sea as P-M kindly highlighted in the post above.