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Everything posted by Reefseeker
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Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
Reefseeker replied to Cambrian's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
May I take the opportunity to thank you - and similar posters - Cambrian, for taking the time to provide such good explanations of the charts you post and what they mean. I learn a lot and I'm sure others do too. On the subject of learning, may I ask, are low heights different from a trough? I note much discussion of eg low heights around the Azores, Biscay, but my understanding is that this is not the same as a trough? Thank you again:) -
Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
Reefseeker replied to Cambrian's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Thank you so much John, I appreciate you taking the time to explain it. -
Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
Reefseeker replied to Cambrian's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Do you mind if I ask what that means, when there are no contours over the UK? I can see you have explained that the outcome = mostly dry with cloud around the surface high. But I saw your post previously noting the lack of contours and wondered what it means. -
A good sunny morning was followed by towering clouds amongst more sunshine and blue skies plus some brief showers. As with the last two days, convective activity seems to be skirting us, literally by a mile or so. The birds look busy picking up bits and pieces to make their nests, so I imagine torrential rain isn't on their wish list.
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Storms and Convective discussion - 20th March 2023 onwards
Reefseeker replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Right over the top of my mother's house! -
Wow, now that was quite the crack of thunder across the sky! I thought a truck had shed its load on the road outside! It's been an interesting day of weather. A fair bit of sunshine and blue skies surrounded by hefty clouds, leading to lots of squally interludes with quite wild winds and heavy rain turning up suddenly, and then the sun coming out again. The trees are currently waving energetically and we're in the middle of a very heavy rain shower. I'm loving the skies, you get those big beefy piles of clouds that are white and grey with the sunshine lighting it all up. Edit... and now it's crazy windy out there again, accompanied by a bit of a roar around the houses!
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The skies are getting that convective look about them and a very heavy cell on the radar has passed just south of us. Thank you @Eagle Eye for your convective forecast yesterday. I notice in Nick's storm forecast the mention of a 'sharpening upper trough'. Can anyone explain what that means? Good luck all storm seekers:)
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A squall line may indeed have thunder and lightning. This discussion of Storm Ciara from the Royal Meteorological Society covers the complexities pretty well (just an excerpt, they give a lot more detail!): "With 179.8 mm of rain reported in Cumbria and a gust of 97 mph recorded at the Needles on the Isle of Wight, Ciara was a force to be reckoned with. However, some of the most destructive weather was delivered by squall lines; violent bursts of weather that not only bring strong winds and torrential rain but also have the potential to bring hail, thunder and sometimes even tornadoes. A squall line is easily recognisable on a radar image as a line of very intense rain. They can be more than 100 km long and keep their structure for several hours as they sweep the landscape." Squall Lines and Storm Ciara WWW.RMETS.ORG With two deaths, serious flooding and tens of thousands of homes losing power, Storm Ciara has hit the UK hard.
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Grey, raining and a bit of a breeze here in Surbiton. Happy/jealous about all of you getting in on the back-edge snow. Ah well, we had a light covering that stayed on the ground for a week in December and got to see heavy falling snow in March for a wee while. Am I allowed to say 'winter's over' yet?!
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Looked out of the window at 5am to see incredibly heavy fat flakes falling. Nothing settled on the roads and pavements but a centimetre or so managed to accumulate on cars, rooftops and gardens. As with others, precipitation has been cycling between snow, sleet and rain. Mostly melted now with drizzle and some occasional strong gusts of wind.