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Jupiters Winter

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Everything posted by Jupiters Winter

  1. Jupiters Winter
    That greenland feature changes the whole run and also it IS a solution and CAN happen. You rather be seeing such charts against signals and ensembles than the other way around.
  2. Jupiters Winter
    T192 Flat zonal pattern being developed on the ECM most of Europe blanketed. Opposing its own long range Ensembles, so expect the OP line to be above the rest. <confidently>
  3. Jupiters Winter
    T168 ECM falling... Something as similar as the GFS 12Z Control Run @ T192 - Very likely scenario with that greenland feature :-( Cant see a way back after that T168 chart. But overall it is a run way out in these timeframes. So keep attention to T120 for any negative commentary.
  4. Jupiters Winter
    Humm Ecm Delay, Mogreps Westerly component, GFS Ens starting to scatter, mean rising. First really negativity in my mind while Op's in general look good. Could be a toys out of pram by the evening if a new signal is being picked up on........:-(
  5. Jupiters Winter
    UKMO improvement. GFS still holding shape. (in Reliable) ECM op was on the mild side of the Ensembles. So fully expecting a excellent ECM this morning. Good atlantic behaviour generally with no hints of any spoilers from above the waters YET. Potentail increase this morning thus far.
  6. Jupiters Winter
    T189 and into low resolution. Click that button. Watch the atlantic steam roll...----
  7. Jupiters Winter
    Looking good @ T138-- Potential pub run incoming..
  8. Jupiters Winter
    No consistency! More runs needed and attention towards Ensembles is suggested rather than the OP's @ the moment. General current OP's pattern brings in cool/cold surface conditions (seasonal). Placement of high still not pinned and major changes on OP run to run @ the moment. ECM OP this evening will be a milder option (hopefully)
  9. Jupiters Winter
    bad enough we have the snow shield over the UK so far this winter. Now we got the riot shield out. Frustration rather than fruitation. Interesting ECM to come.
  10. Jupiters Winter
    After 3 weeks holiday viewing the Ens only, I have noticed the Ensembles clatter with bias of cold potential. The models have begun taking into account the SSW and with a few more runs the placement will come into light. Current runs are simply signalling changes towards cold. eyebrow raising runs with the ooh's and the aah's to follow.
  11. Jupiters Winter
    The only correction This chart is T240 remember what happened with the Easterly at this range. Face value Xmas has potential according to the chart.
  12. Jupiters Winter
    GFS 00Z Ensembles do suggest a very minor signal in favor with the odd couple of rogue runs prolonging. Otherwise no considerable shift yet. 12's to watch today. EDIT:ECM T120 = Snow Midlands north.
  13. Jupiters Winter
    Nice post- Presumably a late night shift equals great uncertainty (Saturday night shift i can not thumbs up for) Uncertainty -A word to be used frequently. Im guessing a outlier on the ensembles with maybe 3-4 in support of OP at the moment.
  14. Jupiters Winter
    Model wobble in favour maybe? Interesting change. Worth seeing whether the ensembles are supporting this run. Really signs of hope. The NAM modelling of that low out of east coast is good as over the last two days every run the low has been slowing down by three hours. so in all last two days i would estimate 24 hours slower getting out of east coast with more days in our favour I would guess rather tiny westward shifts of patterns. That ofcourse if the ensembles are seeing this.
  15. Jupiters Winter
    GFS Surface cold Max for the Midlands from T118 to the end of the run is 2C. overnights REAL low. If no precipitation we could have mm's of frost and ice.
  16. Jupiters Winter
    Short term details change and to be relied more upon Fax and higher resolution models for precipitation. the ramp was for the pattern which holds and first run to show this and fits in with the pros thoughts. Block is strong in this run.
  17. Jupiters Winter
    UKMO T144 OK. GOOD http://www.meteociel...=144&carte=1021 AND GFS Salutes Steve Murr - The block holds into low resolution with undercut and undercut and undercut. AND I WILL TAKE THE WHOLE OF THAT 00Z GFS FROM START TO FINISH ( Probably will never say that ever again)
  18. Jupiters Winter
    lol oh - Late nights zzzz
  19. Jupiters Winter
    Snow now mixed with sleet Birmingham City Where are you Tom?
  20. Jupiters Winter
    Where are you?
  21. Jupiters Winter
    So if we seen this T240 chart last night what would have our conclusions have been? T144 and after will see huge changes. I suggest wnjoy the refinements of reliable timeframe for now as plenty is on offer with allsorts of twists and turns right down to T48 with these sort of setups.. even in reliable timeframe.
  22. Jupiters Winter
    I request Professional commentary on the ECM. Personally I am expecting it for also to pump up atlantic as that how it has been over the years with such blocking in place. For only the atlantic to give up nearer the timeframe.. READY FOR THE RIDE
  23. Jupiters Winter
    Trends are looked out for in Fi. But with such blocking to the north east and well established cold uppers Fi comes right down in timeframe. Eg: That low that crashes into the UK was not even model on previous runs so even though it is a solution but without consistency and above all in current setup a real Fi zone.
  24. Jupiters Winter
    Typical setup where there is a block to the east and the GFS constantly shows the Atlantic train only for it to disappear/die on future runs. There is really no point looking beyond T120 in this scenario, been here many times to understand that the atlantic will not find an easy way in. As always it is also luck.
  25. Jupiters Winter
    A downgrade can only upgrade. An upgrade can downgrade. It is all part of model watching. Easterly should be on and it will become more about finer details such as uppers, shortwaves, direction. 12Z should be decent today.
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