Jupiters Winter

GFS T180 UKMO T144 ECM in earlier runs. The signal and trend pointing towards a NE/E flow a weeks time rather than a flatter zonal flow as you mention a week or so time.

That chart is of 12 December above .... Ignore..... 14 days away.....GFS AND UKMO not to far apart and the ECM has also shown this pattern in previous runs. I like the new pattern/signal after T144 on all the three for something from the NE/E far better than this weekend. Let us be patient this time and wait upto cross model agreements and T96 if not lower in these circumstances.

Nice looking GFS after T150, Decent Atlantic block with Uppers of -10 towards the northeast. Probably flattens out towards an easterly with the block sinking. Never the less seen similar pattern om ECM on previous charts and now on the GFS....... Edit: Typed to soon as soon as it hits low resolution it just bounces towards default. Typical GFS probably better for it to stop at 192. EDIT NO 2 - UKMO t144 Also inlines with GFS t180 to some extent but UKMO very nice for progress. All on that low towards the South West, If that runs on the jet then crashes into the UK killing the block and if it runs over the block and slides/undercuts then we could be in business, but even a slide of that low can bring in greenland lows into the atlantic. So a improvement in pattern with many risks of similar failures of this upcoming cold few days.

The only one positive I have noticed was the GFS 12Z shifted towards the higher resolution NAM in the short term.. Maybe more of the same in coming runs for at least the short term to deliver better...

Its begun sliding... and it looks good towards the north east. Could become near enough same as the ECM output....

Epic charts (no doubt) and people are straight on to streamers and the 80's LOL... Let it get close this time... it is like it has been snowing since the blocking became evident early November.

I dont know but the ECM 144 has a difference whoch to the eyes looks somewhat better for developments further down the line.

ECM Shortly-- My last model view then I cant see much happening on any model run for over 10 days--- Be back then--- Enjoy the weekend to those that might get an Isolated wintry shower...

GFS T240 Undercut very low uppers with excellent Atlantic blocking. why is it always T240 plus................

WOW was not expecting such chart ;-)

I do not remember the exact year but within two years ago there was a similar situation where GFS/ECM showed mild South westerlies and UKMO showed Easterlies and it was I think similar timeframe as of now when the UKMO said You were right GFS/ECM....

Negatively - Still NO cross model agreement and UKMO has been known to shift in vice versa situations in the past at a closer timeframe, the gremlins of the past are out of the box at the moment and patiently waiting for the UKMO (next few runs time) to shift into the lines of GFS/ECM. Positively - UKMO with its CONSISTENCY has been amazing and holding firm for over a week now. UKMO has had cross model agreement from all other models over the last week at some point.

What is gem showing anyone give link please.

Change spotted on UKMO towards the NW - UKMO to shift now I suppose to the GFS solution?

Potential undercutting? Battleground UK at T129

GFS T51 is on similar track as previous run, I cannot see any sharp details developing in favor of GFS switching anywhere near the UKMO.

All three have their own solutions - As for consistency UKMO is only one standing firm. As ECM and GFS have supported the UKMO like musical chairs. UKMO/NOGAPS with ECM catching up and GFS far from the rest but not avoidable.. Edit: Or as a negative point of view. GFS with support from the GEM and little support from the ECM and no support from UKMO/NOGAPS.

So ECM a half way houser.. All three mixed .. CONSISTENCY WISE UKMO.... Nothing else to say. The way GFS and ECM have ahowed allsorts last few runs it is just get a pen and scribble blindly... After seeing the ECM I have begun tiltin towards the UKMO Edit: 216 Seems a better block?

Bang on!!!

The GFS 00z Ensembles highlight the kink quite well. Also funny enough there is a kink at a very similar 30 year average. Plenty of heads knocked over the years then. http://www.null/two/ensembles/

GFS Ensembles anyone? Edit/ As the 18z Ensembles were very consistent.

As many twists and turns, can the ECM do a reversal in favour of the UKMO. If not then back to T180 plus for trends and signals I suppose.

So as it stands - UKMO and a bit of NOGAPS VS the rest of the world... Is The Euro to bail out UKMO or is the UKMO to take the Euro.. an hour to go...

NOGAPS from 72H to 180H has majority of the UK under -4 and lower at times......

I DONT WANT IT ,,,, Go away