polarlow2

Absolute joke in the model thread today. I've given up trying to learn from them. There are a handful who post intelligent, objective comments which are helpful and informative, the rest is absolute drivel, some of which is posted purely to wind others up. I used to love this forum but it's going downhill rapidly because of a select few.

I got a white Christmas in 1999. On holiday in Sligo in the north-west of Ireland, we had heavy hail and sleet showers on Christmas morning. It then cleared up, but late in the evening we had one heavy, prolonged snow shower that dropped about an inch and a half. Gone by the next morning but wonderfully seasonal.

I asked this yesterday but no-one answered: I thought the general idea was an initial cold spell, ie the weekend, followed by an Atlantic-driven spell, followed by a re-establishment of cold, is that not what Ian F suggested? So no real panic if a temporary milder spell surely? Also the ridiculous over-reaction to every single run by some people really makes it hard for others to learn.

I thought the Atlantic was expected to re-assert itself, briefly, next week anyway? So no big surprise?

UK Outlook for Tuesday 8 Jan 2013 to Tuesday 22 Jan 2013: Rather unsettled weather is likely to persist during the first half of January, with low pressure expected to be dominant near the British Isles, bringing further spells of wet and windy weather to most regions. Rainfall amounts are expected to remain above average for most parts of England and Wales, while temperatures are likely to often be close to or perhaps a little above average. Later in this forecast period there is greater than average uncertainty, though some marked changes of weather-type are possible and the risk of spells of colder than average conditions increases. Not model-related I know, but interesting, no? What do people make of the last couple of lines...?

Initially I thought this was the cold spell that brought several hours of heavy wet snow to north London on April 15, although I think that was 1998. Heaviest snow I've ever seen that didn't settle, despite falling for at least two hours.

I concur.

Thanks. Funny how the sheer pain of 'no snow' stays with you. 18 years later...

I'm not great with charts...does that show a channel low clipping the south coast? Right sort of time though, we could have a winner! Oh, and thanks!!

Sorry I can't provide more detail regarding dates, but I am 99 per cent certain it was to do with a channel low going too far to the south, so areas which were expected to get snow got nothing, it just stayed dry and cold.

Rumblings of an easterly on the model thread. Deep FI obviously. That's the FI we are told to ignore. Except when it shows an easterly.

Hi, I don't often start topics but I have a memory of a 'non-snow' event from the early 90s, I was hoping someone could maybe tell me when exactly it was and what the synoptic set-up was. Living in London, I was excited when on a weekday evening the forecasts called for heavy snow spreading up from the south or south-west overnight. The next morning I got up, looked out of my bedroom window and...nothing. No snow. Green. Being only about 8 years old, I was gutted! I vividly remember the next evening, watching London Tonight, when the presenter asked the forecaster where all our snow was...I just can't remember his answer! Given that it was from the south, I'm assuming it was a channel low which dived further south then anticipated. The best I can guess was that it was about 1993 or 94. Anyone else remember it??

Doesn't Ian F also go on to say that they don't place too much faith in these models, or something along those lines,,,?

I think some people on here need to give themselves a good bang on the head. It's December 13! How can you possibly predict what the rest of winter will hold? How many times do long-range forecasts go wrong - pretty often, yet people are now saying the rest of winter is going to be mild! It's like self-harm on these theads sometimes. Bedsides, even IN zonal winters there is potential for short spells of cold, snowy weather. What do people want - a three-month countrywide freeze? Chasing the impossible dream.

I'm not sure if this is the right place to ask, if it is not then mods, feel free to move. With winters like '63 and '47, if models had existed back then do you think they would have known something 'was up' at this stage? I often read about background signals and the like, but can you tell what's around the corner?

This whole easterly saga has been horrible. There is a lot of over-excitement on the model thread, from those ramping up cold charts to others seeing mild at every turn. It really is not an enjoyable experience reading that thread anymore.

Game on. Game over. Pear-shaped. Stella run (It's stellar by the way), BOOM!, upgrade, downgrade, get the prozac out, snowmageddon, blowtorch SW'lies, here comes the beast, great run, poor run, EPIC RUN!!!, horror show, all to play for, hats off to GFS (or ECM, UKMO etc), ignore FI, FI LOOKS AMAZING!. Had to get that off my chest.

Sorry if this is off-topic but could someone clear this up for me - what is it that is essential next week for snow AWAY from east-facing coasts? Some are saying a slack wind will not drive the showers inland, others are saying all you need is v cold uppers. Which is it? I only have a very basic understanding but logic would tell me that with a slack flow you get snow showers on the coast, everywhere else cold, dry, sunny.

As another casual observer, I would add that people don't help themselves; always saying 'ignore FI', yet when amazing cold, snowy charts show up in FI they go crazy over them. Then when they 'downgrade', comes all the disappointment.

Good luck to you chaps tomorrow and tomorrow night - goodness knows you deserve some snow madness after the winter you've had! I reckon there'll be some lying snow at low levels in the north and north-west, maybe nothing huge but welcome nonetheless I'd imagine!

Pretty quiet in this thread...I have family in Dromahair, county Leitrim, expect them to see some snow this weekend. That said, the Met Eireann forecast doesn't look too exciting.

With the amount of hot air you produce I'd imagine you won't see any snow for a long, long time.

I played football in 33 degrees, in the middle of the afternoon, during this spell. I was fine. Yet I've also played in temps in the low 20s, and almost died (not literally) of dehydration. I'm guessing the airmass in 03 was particularly dry?

Some personal favourites: Uh-oh, 18z has gone the way of the pair (never pair-shaped, always the way of the pair)...downgrade!..upgrade!..It's a stonker...no, wait, it's a stinker...Stella run (The word is stellar)...more runs needed...always more runs needed...this chart for +384 is a beauty, it will verify...that one's rubbish, no way will it verify...winter's over.

Cracking stuff Mr Data. I remember those forecasts well, it was only at the very last minute that the BBC changed their forecasts to something a bit more urgent. A lesser remembered snowfall for many but, in my neck of the woods at least, a little beauty!