Wilxy
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Posts posted by Wilxy
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6 minutes ago, AWD said:
Living in a dip within a dip so to say, I’m relatively sheltered IMBY so whilst gusty, I’m not expecting too much wind action here. Mendips to the South, Quantocks to the SW, Welsh hills to the NW, Cotswolds to the North, winds tend not to affect my location too much.
It does appear those more exposed to the West/South West weather are in for a rough evening/night though, namely Devon, Cornwall, Dorset and Hampshire. No doubt there will be various disruption & damage when we all wake up in the morning and try to commute to work/school etc. I can’t see the railways, for one example, being in a good condition come the morning.
I'm just up the road from you and I can agree on this, I tend to find the Southerly winds are worst than when the winds switch to westerly here locally, quite gusty here at the moment but any more switch to the west and it will become significantly lighter here!
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-9.5°C low, still currently -6°C, but despite the very cold start it looks like another nice day to come.
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4 hours ago, AWD said:
Just seen a rare bit of useful information posted in the model thread. Latest from MetO regarding midweek snowfall,
A lot can & will change still, it’s a good few days away still but always interesting to hear what the professionals think. Seems as though our region is still in with a chance of seeing some of the elusive white stuff, albeit that chance decreases the further north one is in the region.
Based on the 12z runs, Id say we are now more likely to see the alternative scenario, rather than the most likely.
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48 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:
ECM extended clusters T264+:
I think these are a big improvement on the last few suites in this timeframe, because the uncertainty looks to be reduced, there is at least a signal here. There are two clusters (1&3) which are broadly looking to continue the pattern, together these have 28 members. The other two clusters look more mobile.
Where can I find a link to these?
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So nice to see a drier outlook, hopefully turning colder along with it!
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Up to 42.7mm of rain after an exceptionally wet day across are region, not very often we get that amount, been a roller coaster start to winter!
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14 minutes ago, Crackerjack said:
Hi AWD we are currently on 40mm of rain today (Frampton Cotterell) I’ve kept rain records since 1988 and it’s already a top 5 daily fall event ️
I’ve not long drove through henfield road, and it was flooding pretty bad down there it will be absolute chaos on the roads this evening!
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Just now, MP-R said:
Crikey! How many lows in that? Wouldn’t even know which low phases with which!
Just showing the minimum pressure possible at that time frame, but using it against the other models just highlights the uncertainly with the GFS, I tried to explain it as clearly as I could.
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3 minutes ago, Shaunado said:
This has to be the weirdest cluster of LP centres I've ever seen! Thu could be amazing for some, although perhaps not IMBY. That said, my local MetO forecast is now showing rain to snow symbols!
Its showing the lowest possible pressure at that point but using it as a trend against the other models shows that the gfs is likely showing the low to far north for Thursday.
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Just thought I would share these charts to illustrate the uncertainty, and has a better understanding on what to expect come Thursday.
So here we have the ECM, showing the placement of lows within the ensemble suite at 1pm Thursday, as you can see it favours the low to are south so better snow risks.
GEM, has better agreement on where the low will be and also still to the south of the UK
GFS, far less certain on not only the placement of the low but also where it could end up, but you can see it is further north than the other scenarios.
But based on this I would assume the ECM and GEM have a better handle on the situation for Thursday, the GFS is known to blow up Lows compared to the other 2 models, but what a interesting start to winter we have been gifted with!
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Down to 1.3C already here in the countryside.
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3 hours ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:
18c cloudy cold. Meh! I'm going back to bed ...
Cold! I still find 18°C comfortable.
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9 minutes ago, SilverWolf said:
Could you explain what trigger is needed? I’ve heard this loads before, but would like it explained… is it a cooler air mass coming in or something different? TIA
You need forcing to help produce lift for a storm to develop
For example tomorrow you can see there is good cape and very good wind shear but there is a lot of CIN so its going to take a big trigger to produce storms tomorrow like a hill or wind convergence but i'm sure others can explain better.
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Turned very hazy here this afternoon and has limited the temp, 28.8°C after a high of 29.1°C so far.
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Another very warm day, already up to 26.1°C after a minimum of 18.7°C, wonder if we can get up to 30°C for the first time this year!
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4 hours ago, dr weather said:
Yes, hard to tell how accurate the readings are. Clevedon is an idiosyncratic topography, which I won't even attempt to describe here, so I imagine that there are temperature variations even within a mile or so. Moreover, there's a lot of concrete and tarmac in the centre of Clevedon and it certainly feels warmer there than it does where I live.
Throughout the year, we in Portishead are typically a couple of degrees warmer than elevated Lulsgate, which seems to be the most 'official' of the Bristol weather stations, and that is reading 27 degrees at the moment. And we are usually a degree warmer than the 'Marty Hicks' weather station in north Bristol, which at the moment is showing 28.x degrees.
Weather data for Horfield and Filton, Bristol UK
WWW.MARTYNHICKS.UKCurrent weather data from an automatic weather station since February 2004, including webcam, monthly archive, live updates. Temperature, humidity, rain, pressure, wind, solar and UVThe Clevedon station I referenced has a current observation of 29.6 degrees, so more or less in keeping with that very generalised statistic.
I don't bother taking measurements in my own garden as I once used to as it appears to have its own weird microclimate, probably because of south facing windows reflecting onto brick wall and decking that seems to have been uniquely designed to cook the soles of one's feet!
Almondsbury is also another good source of Information, which is an official metoffice station.
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South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards
in SW and CS England Weather Discussion
Posted
AWD Only silver lining is that might be it for at least a few days!