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Wilxy

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Posts posted by Wilxy

  1. 24 minutes ago, CoventryWeather said:

    Saturday seems like a day of interest for me, might be some severe storms possible, even if the CAPE profiles do not look anything exciting. Wind shear aloft seems very strong. Not an expert so not going into too much detail, but would expect others to comment on this day soon.

    Very convective day expected (and I'm off to Fairford for an airshow) 😕

     

    I'm also off to RIAT this weekend and it doesn't look great at all does it! I even wondered if they would consider cancelling Saturday as this could be the worst weather I have seen forecast for the event in all the years Iv'e been except the ones that got cancelled! 

    • Like 2
  2. 1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

    Yeah sorry it looks like missing you, I guess you’re used to that though 🤦🏼‍♂️

    It looks like being some event for some though, possibly into Friday too. If I lived in Cornwall I’d be looking for an Air bnb tonight 😂

    You could be to far north tomorrow morning, some of the patchy stuff might reach you though? Probably better for you tomorrow evening?

    • Like 1
  3. 44 minutes ago, SilverWolf said:

    I see the snowfall in the SE and London is all over the news, even on this site! Which is great, but there’s still 6 inches of frozen snow in my garden - not really heard my area mentioned on the news at all! 

    Its always the same story whenever the SE get some extreme weather, I guess that is because London falls into that category and gets far more focus than the rest of the country.

    • Like 1
  4. 25 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

    Not a lot of support for anything wintry along the south coast tomorrow eve. FAX charts keep the fronts well in to France.

    Completely agree, I looked through the GFS and ECM ensembles this morning and most agree that most of the snow will be In North France, some do bring a risk to the south coast however and the UKV also has to be taken into account.

    • Like 2
  5. 2 minutes ago, Premier Neige said:

    Viewing ICON on meteociel and it's stuck at 120h. Been on here quite a few years but left chart viewing/analysing to others until recently. Is it normal for models to get stuck at a certain point when they roll out?

    18z Doesn't go any further than 120h, its only the 00z and 12z that goes to 180h, the 06 and 18z is 120h only.

    • Like 1
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  6. 19 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

    Just look back the last few pages, the GFS has been all over the place! It's like it's been out for too many drinks, while ECM has been mostly stable it's in output.

    Only till this morning apparently it's not good enough because its showing the wrong output.

    Yes, this afternoon will be very important but we shouldn't disregard models because of their output.

    It happens every year people only like what they see that’s it end of story, doesn’t matter about stats or anything!

    Although I also wouldn’t completely write off the cold because of one run, this is where ensembles are crucial in picking up signals or changes.

    • Like 1
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