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Everything posted by swilliam
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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
swilliam replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I think the op is the most important because it's the one that started with the real data (and the control). All the other runs are started with adjusted data so the op is the real one if you like. -
Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023
swilliam replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
All building nicely here in Milton Keynes . Started with a single cloud about 2 and then built in situ -
Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond
swilliam replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes it was cluster 4 in the ECMF ensemble that was shown earlier (7 members) but not so fast -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
swilliam replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I would just like to mention that this very simple representation is a bit misleading in that the grey areas are percentiles (90% I think). If you look at all the runs the op is not an outlier in the true sense of the word (as in the most extreme solution). It is of course at the top end though. -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
swilliam replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Looks like west based -NAO -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
swilliam replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
You can clearly see where the uncertainty lies with the link up of the low and the low heights to the North -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
swilliam replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
swilliam replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards
swilliam replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Close one in MK 20221023_181307.mp4 -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
swilliam replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
swilliam replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond
swilliam replied to mushymanrob's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February
swilliam replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
could be some records broken if this came off. Looks like an extra tropical hurricane with 130km/hr winds separated by stillness in few km Probably just a GFS special of course. -
Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February
swilliam replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
December was pretty much on average though. -
Model discussion: Hunt for cold - The start of 2022
swilliam replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Nothing like that fortunately and yes it does look interesting. Very different treatment of the small low in mid Atlantic -
Model discussion: Hunt for cold - The start of 2022
swilliam replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
There is the HD model on meteociel now which goes to 168 in 12 hr intervals as well WWW.METEOCIEL.FR Météociel propose le modèle UKMO jusqu'à 168h. Cartes de prévision des précipitations, du vent, des températures -
Model discussion: Hunt for cold - The start of 2022
swilliam replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Well before the cold was shown the modelling was showing something similar to what is predicted now, a slow moving high near us. People were complaining then as now nothing interesting showing and that we would have a boring Xmas. Then all of a sudden the High started being predicted to move NW and the discussion was around how far it would get and that it would never be far enough. In the end of course it went too far and we missed the cold all together. We have the same discussion here and I agree with VB that anything could change at this timescale, I have no idea why people just assume when cold is not shown it will always be right. I think having the high near us is a pretty good starting point - if it was over Iberia or France then this would be a real concern. Anything could happen here beyond about 6/7 days so it is just a question of being patient to see what does occur. You may be right and it ends up being South of us and this is probably the highest % outcome. However there are plenty of other options - especially with the PV on the move. -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
swilliam replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Interestingly the two lows on the Atlantic in the medium term stay separated this time instead of becoming one big one - may have some effect down the line. -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
swilliam replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Not sure I would describe this as awesome unless you like cold rain and sleet -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
swilliam replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes quite as I was trying to show earlier - the focus should be more on the arrival of proper cold air and a bit less on the lows now. -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
swilliam replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Icon was an improvement in terms of the low profiles for the lows to the SW 0z followed by 06z Reflected in the position of the precipitation The issue though is the cold air has not made any further progress Until we get this no real improvement is being made. Its similar for the improvement on the ECM this morning This is the improvement I shall be looking for this evening -
Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?
swilliam replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?
swilliam replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes it is the boundary is a few hundred miles further north (especially in Europe) but still looks just ok -
Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?
swilliam replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I bet he is here for the pub run as well