swilliam

Well the point I was trying to make was that the chart you posted was not so bad as an evolution from the current predicted zonal pattern. This is highlighted by for example P8 which is a similar chart at the time you posted and the situation a couple of days later looks even worse and would no doubt induce a lot of moaning but only a few days later goes to this All speculation of course but shows the potential from the chart you posted which was the point I was trying to make - that the chart was not so bad. Most of the HP for MLB and HLB comes from amplification of HP to our S. So as long we get some amplification there are possibilities - as shown by P8 and P2 (even more closely matching the op which you showed) which goes from this to this

It is not fact in that this is NWP for 9 days away - we will have to see what the actual fact is. What is fact is that climatology tells us that the normal/average/most common situation is for us to have high pressure to the South and low pressure to North (not sure why this question was asked). This will be shown more often than not in most winters with SW winds. So moaning about it when it is shown seems rather pointless to me. Much more interesting is to see what changes could occur as shown by several of the ensembles (and the ECM yesterday). Often this will get watered down to something less favourable but that is because this is the norm. The actual chart you showed was not that bad as far as I can see as it was reasonably amplified providing the opportunity for something more interesting later. If it was completely flat then we would continue with the zonality with mostly mild, wet windy weather with some Pm incursions in between. In fact the benefit of the amplification is shown at 384 with a move towards retrogression of the high that does form with some potential. All this is FI of course but show potential which at that range is all that we can ask. Moaning does not help at all.

Wow - on the basis of a long range forecast for several weeks of 'above average temperatures being slightly more likely than below average temperatures' you are going to write of the whole the winter for any cold and snow - amazing.

I think you will find that it was a probability of lower temperatures not a prediction.

Which part of that was incorrect - it did turn wetter, there were stronger winds and there was a risk of ice and snow. I imagine the risk was much less than 50% but because it affects more people than other weather events probably thought it was worth mentioning.

Actually most of the LRFs (I am talking about monthlies, EC46 etc.not direct correlations with MJO etc.) up to this point have been pretty good. They have been predicting general blocking (both MLB and HLB) and a lack of zonality have been the main message (as was shown earlier).I think you have to agree that we have effectively had no zonality for most of the autumn and so far all this winter. The fact that the blocks that have formed have not been in a place to give us any significant cold weather is unfortunate but this is what often happens (except for the spell in November). Blocking does not equal cold spell - just means it is more likely. Cuurently we are blocked and I think you would agree it is not currently cold or likely to be in the near future. So the forecast chart provide by IF for the ECM ENS anomaly showed a significant change from climatology with a large +ve anomaly east and slightly north. So this would indicate that many members of the ENS had blocking solutions. However this does mean necessarily mean cold weather with piles of snow from -10 uppers in an easterly. It could equally mean we are back to where we just now with rather mild southerlies but dry weather. So you might think (and say) that it was a fail or bust of the LRF but in actual fact it would not be. As a general point about these LRFs I would much rather see them showing potential blocking than either climatology or worse enhanced zonality. If they did either of the latter then we can be pretty sure it would likely verify and the chances of getting significant blocking would be low. I think the main point though is that you need to use them just as guide as to what is more probably rather than this is what is going to happen. If it is 60/40 more likely for blocking as opposed to zonality but in practice it turned out to be the latter would you consider this as a fail?

Maybe in the medium term but not really in the longer term There are some very nice ones but much more variability though with a big swathe of yellows at or slightly higher than our latitudes. Problem is it keeps staying at the +300 mark so nothing definite or you could say is trend. However it does show what is possible and if the majority showed raging zonality then we could be sure that would happen so this preferable.

Looks pretty good to me.This is the GEFS mean anomaly for the 15th And the EPS A couple of days later I do not really understand all the bashing of these long range products. Of course they are not going to be correct all the time - they just indicate a favoured outcome. As I said given the range I think this looks pretty impressive - others may disagree.

Short ensembles look distinctly colder than previously - at least in Holland

I think the phrase that used is highly uncertain until one solution is favoured over the other.

Note: if we do see a black hole on the mean charts then we are in business

Gosh, things must be looking up - 1st time the 120 fax has been wheeled out this season

Gem has the low sliding over the top and breaking the link between the HP cells as well ala ECM and now UKMO . Looks like the GFS is maybe going to be on its own again.

The ECM is really out on its own this one with LP sliding over the top of the Atlantic ridge and breaking the tie with the one in E Canada.. Below are the day 7 images for all the models available at http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/ UKMO GFS GEM FIM8 FIM 9 ECM The only support it has is from the NAVGEM - hardly a ringing endorsement If the new ECM has got this right against all the other models this will be quite a coup - if not back to the drawing board maybe for the new version. The effect and placement of the tropical depression does seem to be having an effect.

If we are going to look at FI in this depth then it seems to me the mean for the GEFS is quite an upgrade on the 12Z (FWIW) with a much more pronounced ridge to our W. I can't believe people are complaining they have not had any snow before winter has even started and the fixation with every op run. Things looking pretty good overall as far as I can see. Lots of changes to come though

The last time I can remember significant cold at the beginning of November was 1980 when there was snow in the channel islands and -8 uppers in SE England

HI Knocker, I do not really understand why you say the GEFS anomaly does not go along with the Op. As far as I can see it shows anomalously high pressure over Greenland, low over the SE and S Atlantic (i.e to the SW of us) and v. low over NE US - which is what the Op shows? Using the Meteociel view this is apparent. It seems very likely that we will get the -ve NAO as backed up by the MetO 30 dayer.

Yes those looking for warmer weather next weekend will be disappointed with this -similar at 144 to UKMO though.

Well the GEFS anomalies still showing the same thing with a blocked scenario 10 days 15 days Seems odd that the ops keeping showing the flat option with AH ridging NE. Not that cold though but dry - could be quite pleasant

We know - we are just discussing what is being shown.

Tonight's for WEERplaza - looks pretty good to me. and mean 850 for 1 week away - -6 across middle of England - also pretty good

No hype - people discussing what the models were/are showing (including the MetO) which varied from no snow to significant snow from run to run. I would wait until it has happened in any case but whatever happens this is what was shown.

Heavens above - we can get cold weather with a tanking -ve AO If we do not get something interesting in a couple of weeks I will be amazed - unfortunately probably not as extreme as this (this is for the benefit of NS who wanted to see some N blocking)

Looking through the GES and this one caught the eye - now that is what I would N blocking and -ve AO - still can't get cold for the UK from this though.

The thing is that the first chart perfectly agrees with GFS 06 and the protracted cold spell. If you look at the chart for 19th which is in the middle of your anomaly chart you can the Atlantic high, LP to the N, HP to the NE and near normal pressure over us. The anomaly charts are great for broad brush average deviations from normal (over a few days) but can conceal local effects which is what is occurring here. So your statement that the anomaly chart does not allow anything other than a 48 hr cold spell is not correct obviously