Rob K
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Posts posted by Rob K
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6 minutes ago, Griff said:
Looks further to the West than GFS 12z
I was just thinking it looks less robust and further east...?
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3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:
A word about the GEFS .
The 850 values are misleading in terms of how many are actual mild runs versus how many keep the surface cold.
Any flow sourced with an easterly element even if the upper air temps look on the milder side will remain on the cold side at ground level , this is the benefit of the colder uppers getting further into mainland Europe than originally forecast at the start when the models were more reluctant to do that .
Indeed, the 850mb ensemble doesn't look that different from the last set but the 2m temps are hugely colder (for Hampshire)
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22 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:
Really?
Both Ukmo and gfs have better WAA, albeit the GFS is still much better, gem looks much different.
You're right on closer inspection. I was put off by the weak 120hr UKM chart.
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Just now, Battleground Snow said:
I think the Ukmo would still be a very good run, it just wouldn't get the deep cold to us as quickly as the GFS, I'll pretend the gem didn't happen today though haha.
Not sure - I think the GEM looks rather similar to the UKMO so it might go the same way and sink the block quickly.
GFS mean and control look great though.
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38 minutes ago, Malarky said:
Isn't the direction of travel more important? Can we look at a similar comparison of how the models saw that date 24-48 hours ago?
From 24 hours ago the trend is colder, but from 12 or 6 hours ago the trend is milder. The 18Z ensemble last night was really good for continued cold and the 0Z was also pretty good but the 6Z is a definite wobble back to the milder side. All very finely balanced though and so much scatter - I mean, this coming Saturday could have a max of -2C or +12C here, let alone what happens next week.
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Pssst.... take a look at P5 on the GEFS at around 348-360 hours. I challenge you to draw a better winter chart.
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It looks like there is now only one day that has failed to reach 15C, never mind 14C: January 8 with a high of 14.9 in 1988.
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2 hours ago, philglossop said:
That low on Sunday/Monday reminds me of this monster
The main trouble is Monday into Tuesday. I think we're in for trouble if it verifies.
909mb? Surely that was a bit of an exaggeration. This article reckons it was between 912 and 915 at the lowest.
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On 05/01/2020 at 15:37, Don said:
That's what I've heard. I think Basingstoke also did well for snow during the mid-March 2018 BFTE, too. Also, bear in mind, there are a few snow 'domes' nearby (I used to live in one!) This perhaps makes Basingstoke seem like a sweet spot by comparison!
I live quite near Basingstoke and we have done very well in this area over the past 12 years or so. After a long fairly snowless drought in the 1990s and 2000s we got very late and early snowfalls in 2008 (April and October), then we got a couple of decent falls just before Christmas 2009, then that mammoth fall in January 2010. Nov/Dec 2010 were a bit of a letdown compared to what much of the rest of the country got, but we also got a decent amount in March 2013, and again from the 2018 BTFE parts 1 and 2.
Then on Feb 1st we got about 12cm of heavy wet snow here but over in Basingstoke it was closer to 15-20cm, a proper winter wonderland. And then three weeks later I was sitting in a pub garden having lunch in a T-shirt. What a crazy month Feb 2019 was!
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8 minutes ago, DaveL said:
Sigh.
Here we go again. Brogdale, Gravesend-Broadness and now Cambridge Botanic Gardens. Jo Bloggs' back garden or Cambridge town Hall roof next, perhaps?
If anyone lives near Cambridge, I think a quick drive up the road to have a quick look-see might be a good idea! Not for the competition of course, I hasten to add.
Someone posted a pic of the weather station as it is today on TWO. Lots of bare earth nearby. Personally I think we should call it a tie with 2003 on 38.1C and bin Gravesend and Brogdale! And not just because I chose 38.1C in the comp....
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Met Office tweet acknowledges the 38.7C subject to validation.
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1 hour ago, h2005__uk__ said:
Is that an official MetO site?
Well there is an official manual site called Cambridge Botanic Gardens on the Met Office station list, so unless there are two weather stations there it looks like it is. It also has the Met Office logo on the station details tab, like Brogdale does.
Brogdale is also showing the 38.4C on that site: https://wow.metoffice.gov.uk/observations/details/201907263foef47xtye6ucrdyyb96sccar
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Maybe a late plot twist:the manual Cambridge Botanic Gardens site appears to be showing a max of 38.7C. https://wow.metoffice.gov.uk/observations/details/?site_id=27484233
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Surprised that yesterday didn't rank higher. The extent of the 35C+ temperatures across the country was amazing.
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I did flag up this possibility yesterday, as the manual station was right in the prime spot.
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3 hours ago, Mark wheeler said:
Wait Until the official Northolt reading comes in later
Northolt reading came in ages ago, max was 37.6C. As for Brogdale, word is that it's still to be checked. There was a rumour that it was 38.4C but I think that was a myth!
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5 hours ago, Mr Bartlettazores said:
Quick question if anyone can answer...was there cloud cover moving into the south east in the heatwave on 10th August 2003? Did it put a lid on temps going even higher that day? I recall severe thunderstorms up in the north east that afternoon and it was cooler in the west. Cardiff had a predicted record of 34 degrees on the Saturday 9th but unexpected cloud cover scuppered that (think it was 30/31 instead so below the city record from 1995 which is 33 degrees I believe). Would certainly be interesting to know although can’t remember cloud cover over the south east that day?
On 10 Aug 2003 there was a cold front coming down from the northwest. There were severe storms in northern parts, Carlton-in-Cleveland rings a bell I think. The SE was the last part of the country to hang on to the heat.
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59 minutes ago, matty007 said:
Well done Rob
Looks like I might have been stitched up by Brogdale and its dodgy hedge!
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41 minutes ago, matty007 said:
I get the feeling that I am not the only one who will be feeling this way. It has been very warm for days on end with very little to no cloud. Then suddenly when does the cloud decide to show up? At the most inconvenient and unlucky point imaginable. Only in the UK could this happen....
Look, what's done is done. Still a wonderful day. But you must see that it was immensely unlucky and unfortunate timing that cost us what should have been the hottest day on record.
It's not really a coincidence - the hottest air is always going to be the most unstable, and we had 23-24C 850s coming up from the south, which of course triggered convective cloud. I think cloud will usually be the limiting factor in such a set-up.
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10 hours ago, Mr Bartlettazores said:
A very interesting article and surely doubts will persist if the 38.5 degrees isn’t beaten today (although I think it will be).
The previous record was Cheltenham at 37.1 degrees on 3rd August 1990. I also recall Cambridge being an official site a few years back but also not sure this is now?
Cambridge has two official sites: the NIAB automated site (which I believe is the one that took the July record today) and the Botanic Gardens manual site (which presumably reports at the end of the day?)
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I'll take 38.1C in Cambridge, anyway.
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Conspiracy theorists might like to note that the Bedford weather station was running dead level with Cambridge at 1pm (35.5C) and then mysteriously stopped reporting for the rest of the day. A potential record missed out on?
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1 minute ago, sunnijim said:
Northolt also on 38c.All we need is 0.6c in a prolonged sunny period.It could still go.Although unlikely.For me,like 2003 it will be a station nearby that doesn't record on the hour if we are to beat the record.
Northolt exact reading was 37.6C at 4pm. I don't think there are many manual stations around these days. But there is Cambridge Botanic Gardens: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/uk-synoptic-and-climate-stations
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38.1C in Cambridgeshire on Thursday... hmm I think I remember someone putting that in the competition...
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Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by Rob K
The high-res chart on TWO for south UK actually shows one 38C gridpoint on Sunday, probably around Charlwood.
If that verified it would be one of the five hottest days ever recorded (and mean that 5 of the 6 hottest days ever in the UK would have happened since 2019!)