Rob K
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Posts posted by Rob K
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19 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:
July record gone at Heathrow 36.9 . The sun has gone in here at Gatwick , due to cloud cover .
Heathrow 37.2C at 2pm. The second hottest day in UK history, beating Aug 3 1990.
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15 minutes ago, i luv snow said:
31.6 at Heathrow at 10am. I remember temps being at around 32 at 10.30am back in August 2003. I remember checking the temps on teletext
This is a list of the hourly readings from Aug 10 2003. Times are in UTC so add an hour to get the BST time. We are a couple of degrees ahead of 2003 (31.6C at 0850Z compared to 29.6C in 2003)!
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Strange that the Arpege model goes for the highest temperatures if it also has more cloud!
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3 hours ago, danm said:
Faversham is where the all time record in 2003 was recorded.
Not that site, though. The official station is a manual one at the Brogdale apple centre.
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3 minutes ago, NTC said:
I am sure it was going to be the hottest night ever last night but it wasn't so you do not know what it will do
I was always sceptical of that one as none of the high-res models suggested the temperatures staying above 22C in any given place. And so it proved.
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4 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:
ARPEGE 6z still going for 38c 100f tomorrow afternoon / early evening and i believe 39-40c 102f is possible!!!!!
The zoomable ARPEGE shows just how wide an area of 38C is shown. Parts of Kent, and then a big swathe from Sussex up through London to Cambridgsehire: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpegezoom.php?mode=131&x=4723.53&y=2129.52&ech=36&zoom=3
BTW it is showing a max of 30C for Kent today which has already been exceeded at noon!
I guessed 38.1C in the competition but I would probably add a degree to that now. I think we will just miss 40C though.
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3 minutes ago, NApplewhite said:Latest GFS 2m Temps on 06Z - HIGH res shows peak of 36C in London at 15.00 nothing like the 40 degress forecast earlier. I dont think we will break the record tomorrow
GFS has never been showing those very high figures - it often tends to underestimate maxima. It's the high-res models that have been showing 38 or even 39, and they still are. The European high-res HARMONIE model has 40C in Kent, for example.
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27 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:
Only 35c on Euro4.
The grid spacing for the numbers is just too wide. If you look at the shading there are plenty of areas above 36C, although the key is very confusing.
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3 hours ago, Mr Bartlettazores said:
Is it still an official site? Never saw any other observations from it other than that 10 August 2003 record!
Yes Brogdale (Faversham) is an official site but it isn't automated so doesn't tend to show up on the daily record list. It gets added in at the month's end, when all the data is sent in, I believe.
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37 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:
Doesn’t look like Gravesend will get the hottest temperatures given a SE’ forecast. Areas west of London and north of any high ground seem to be the favourites.
And especially given that Gravesend weather station closed last year!
My guess is for a 38.1C in East Anglia somewhere. Let's say Cambridgeshire actually. On Thursday 25th.
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5 minutes ago, Craig84 said:
The GFS 06z is continuing the trend of toning down the depth of the trough next week.
The core of the low not making landfall in Scotland before moving away.
By 168hrs the Azores high is nosing in again, I think the breakdown has been toned down in the last 24hrs.
Yes by T192 we have a UK high. Encouraging signs, but only one run and all that...
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43 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:
51C is being forecast for central Portugal on Saturday, this would smash the all time European heat record of 48.3C set in Sevilla in August 2003...
06Z GFS takes it up to 52C!
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Tibenham Airfield is about 13 miles southeast of Norwich and (assuming the site online is the official airfield station) looks to have hit 37.8C during a brief freakish rise around 4.30pm.
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28 minutes ago, Alderc said:
GFS ensembles are pretty tightly grouped right through the run. Given what appears to be a solid consensus it will be interesting to see how much run-run variance there will be.
The op run was among the slower members to build in the heat. Some eg P4 build it in quickly and then maintain it for over a week of 32C+ maxima.
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41 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:
GFS at days 8-10 is pretty spectacular. 1025mb pressure, relatively low humidity and a 15C isotherm in the south/south west.
Don't you mean 20C?
Edit - ah, you said days 8-10. The 20C comes later. -
1 minute ago, Atmogenic said:
wow if that actually happens then not only will we have a new record but we will also have a higher temperature then Japan's highest temperature this week that was broken at 41.1C
That was yesterday. A lot has changed since then!
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37 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:
Looking decidedly omminous going forward as we move into August. I am not one for posting charts from the past but the set up on show here is pretty much identical to how a certain heatwave fifteen years ago initiated.
Declining Scandi ridge, heat building strongly over Iberia and southern France, a weak Atlantic trough which will build the ridge sufficiently over the UK without pushing too far north. It might and probably will not happen in the same manner it did in 2003 but there are some serious warning signs as we head into week 2.
Anyway lets get the rest of this week out of the way before we think about another heatwave, mainly as the models struggle to consistency model a rather deep Atlantic trough against an extremely strong ridge to our east.
Looking at the charts from Aug 2003 I'm amazed that we didn't go higher than 38.5C. There were >20C 850s for several days, peaking at 22C. The charts are showing 36C possible on Friday with only 18C at 850.
I assume there has to be a chance of the record even with upper air temps a couple of degrees lower than 2003, as we have had such prolonged dry weather (although showers on Fri could dampen the soil somewhat)
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34 minutes ago, Luke Best said:
And that's a 20% chance of the all-time UK record being broken!!!
30% chance of the July record being broken, according to the Met O's Chief Forecaster.
If it's a 20% chance of 38.5C being broken then surely the chance of 36.7C being broken would be a lot higher than 30%!
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7 minutes ago, Frosty. said:
Wow 33-36c 91-97f across the SE / East Anglia on Friday according to the Gem 12z
..likely to be some very big thunderstorms on Friday.
..and to think, there could potentially be record breaking heat during August with the words very hot again mentioned in today's update!☺
But by next Tuesday GEM has afternoon temps of just 13C-20C across the south!
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2 hours ago, Timmytour said:
I think the models have been magnificent at times this winter, providing some of the best eye-candy I've seen in years!
Just a shame about the weather....
Indeed it has been a classic winter at T240, rivalling 1963!
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14 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:
@Seasonality - The control isnt bias corrected its run ( IIRC ) at the same lower resolution as the ensembles without any pterbation bias -which is different to the known bias of the OP as that bias isnt deliberate, the ENS are-
I wonder how many people know ALL the ENS have bias applied at T0 !!
Heres the UKMO 168-
EASTERLY!!
S
That is the ECM 168 chart, Steve.
This is the UKMO 168 chart:
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Looking out from my office this morning accross the London skyline this morning from the 27th floor of the office block where I am based I can see several fully rigged cranes standing proud to the skyline. I only hope that their confidence in not taking the precautions that we have are justified as in most if not all cases there will not be anyone around to do anything to put things right as it is a nationwide cosure of the construction industry until 6th January.
As I have to cycle across London this evening that doesn't fill me with confidence. If it looks really wild I might leave the bike at work...
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Everyone who is reporting the incredible drops in pressure are forgetting about something, when you talk about a storm dropping 24mb in 24 hours they are talking about the centre of the low.
Everyone is measuring the pressure dropping from there stationary point which of course will drop faster because not only is the storm deepening but the lows centre is also moving closer so you will always get a much increased drop in pressure on top of a already bombing low.
No - the central pressure of the storm is dropping something like 40mb in 18 hours. This is a bomb and then some.
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Please can we have a breakdown of the above in leymans terms for those still learning. Thanks :-)
It means that the ECM and ARPEGE models show a more meridional (i.e. straight north-south line) approach rather than the tilted undercut from NW to SE which is more favoured by the UKMO. Ian says the Fax charts have been drawn to reflect the forecasters' view that the UKMO is the one that is out of line, which is why today's fax charts show less of a "slider" scenario than yesterday's did.
..likely to be some very big thunderstorms on Friday.
Thursday 25th July weather observations - A record breaking day for heat?
in Weather reports
Posted
Metcheck readings are meaningless. It could be somebody's cheap AWS in full sun for all we know. Only official stations are worth bothering with.