Pembroke Dangler
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Everything posted by Pembroke Dangler
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Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?
Pembroke Dangler replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Looks like day 10 onwards on gfs high retrogresses to Greenland allowing the motherload to drop from the north east cone on you can do it -
Model output discussion 24/01/21
Pembroke Dangler replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
At least we can predict the points for the U.K (Nil points) The ecm will be on the money tonight sliding the low Sunday and cold in earlier next Thursday. High not as blown up as the GEM and Para but still enough to deflect the Atlantic se and drag in -8 uppers nationwide (I hope) -
I think the snow coming in during the period of the low water as the tide will be ebbing out will have an influence with less warming on the immediate coast as more land is exposed I.e. the burry inlet and Severn estuarys less warmer sea water to affect the base layers etc just my thoughts but happy to be ridiculed lol
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Although the building blocks were in place by day 6 so it’s counting down we just need not look further than 144 and the consensus is a trough east of uk and heights west/North west surface conditions will change between now and then in terms of how the colder air lines up, but the trend today is positive from a cold perspective. I just feel it will upgrade from here on in. Cold is coming
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Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter
Pembroke Dangler replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Yuk it’s not like we can even escape this crud to go skiing in the alps for a snow fix hopefully we’ve had a couple of rogue outlier runs from the gfs and the next few will take us back to something resembling yesterday’s 12z runs