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Pembroke Dangler

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Everything posted by Pembroke Dangler

  1. Pembroke Dangler
    That is some block and as for the suns influence on upcoming events it will be like a butterfly farting in the breeze compared to what the SSW is going to produce. It’s coming just be a little more patient
  2. Pembroke Dangler
    And not the wet big flakes we be talking loads of dry powder snow that doesn’t stick to the roof as it gets blown around and drift into 10 foot snow drifts ......... and then I woke up
  3. Pembroke Dangler
    That’s a nice birthday present to wake upto thanks ecm looks awesome fair doos snow for mist you’d have to say low heights to the south -12 widely in a gale off the North Sea convection writen all over it I’d say.
  4. Pembroke Dangler
    What’s encouraging with today’s outputs is that any mild outburst look brief in the next 10 days and then after that in fi (but not your normal fi) most outputs are favouring some sort of blocking near to our north. The best thing is there is growing ensemble support showing, we have the met office still on board as if the chief forecaster is a cold ramper, so I now believe this will happen and possibly could be memorable. Cant remember there being such a big signal for blocking to our north since the 2010 classic. Think it was like 2 weeks before it happened the met prodicted it and it came to fruition just saying.
  5. Pembroke Dangler
    Makes you think why you would bother looking at the models if the weather you get Day in day out is the same regardless of what season it is as would be the case in certain parts of the country I mean come on why brag like? If I had snow sitting on my door step in July I’d be pretty peeeed off tbh. Just saying!!
  6. Pembroke Dangler
    I think it will be week 2 before the high will gain enough ground north and east to advect the cold air west but in the mean time my skiing trip looks tidy for some snow in Bulgaria later next week. I promise to bring some back the following week for us snow staved southern folk ?
  7. Pembroke Dangler
    It’s looking more likely now that next week will see the Azores High move east and amplify through Spain and head north east into Central Europe leaving the uk in a ssw west flow, the south and south east will see the driest and milder temps whilst north western parts will see more average temps under more influence of the upper trough centred around Iceland. Now the thing about the direction of amplification of the Azores though Central Europe intrigues me because it looks like it has the potential to link up with the Russian high and form a block which could retrogress towards the uk towards the end of next week and into the start of the week after. One to watch I think as this could be the holly grail set up. One issue though is the upper trough to our nw which also needs to move back to Canada so it will allow the Russian high to move west.
  8. Pembroke Dangler
    Bristol Channel runner perhaps or maybe the English Channel runner by the time it corrects South one would think ?
  9. Pembroke Dangler
    Looking at the beeb graphics it’s further sounth than the gfs and I’m talking m4 south entering Newquay and exiting Dover it looked like I suspect snow to the north of it. Looked a pretty weak feature so uppers north of it should not modify to much.
  10. Pembroke Dangler
    That will be the high but in any showers the temps will drop to 1-2 which would be enough for snow to fall because of evaporative cooling. Wheather it will settle I think that’s where elevation comes in.
  11. Pembroke Dangler
    Yes indeed and giving the ecm propensity to underdoo uppers you could add maybe another 1 degree below what it shows and if you get some troughs inbeded in the flow and intense showers the boundary between snow and rain will be breached with evaporative cooling. I will be on the lookout for the fabled thundersnow event in this setup it just screams the potential would love to see it again pink lightening very weird.
  12. Pembroke Dangler
    Yes most definitely due to the extreme cold that’s been in that part of the northern hemisphere the sea temps I believe around se Greenland are well below average so the sea has frozen there I believe so less open ocean for the air to modify. Plus this is where early winter has resided for the first 6 weeks.
  13. Pembroke Dangler
    Can’t beleive they are all bickering in the model thread about nw Britain this and that granted they look prime for what may come next week but you have to feel that from our perspective here in Wales this pm incursion next week looks good and remember the Irish Sea is colder than average so less risk of the uppers getting watered down. Also with Ireland positioned where it is we could do better than nw Britain because the cold uppers have less sea to traverse effectively Ireland is our cold magnet and as long as the strength of the wind from the nw remains potent enough to drag the uppers from Greenland almost un modified I’d expect snow almost anywhere in Wales from Tuesday Wednesday on next week here’s hoping anyway. PD
  14. Pembroke Dangler
    Looks like that short wave will develope and follow the jet possible channel runner or northern France perhaps. And looks like the east coast of the states will get anothe noreaster
  15. Pembroke Dangler
    This easterly come westerly come southerly come norwester saga is getting a bit tiresome and making me a bit dizzy. I just feel that the scandy block (like last year) is not being a friend and I think it’s time it either got some muscle and smash the Atlantic trough down under us or leave the scene and let the pattern reset. The overall picture still looks ripe for something down the line maybe in 2 weeks I think. Also think an SSW could be the way forward and February could be the beasts turn to pay us a long over due visit. Here’s hoping anyway.
  16. Pembroke Dangler
    Looks like some cold reinforcements coming look north east as a chunk of the vortex pays Sweden could get good this.....
  17. Pembroke Dangler
    Awesome post @Catacol it's looking like we just need to be patient and let the pieces of the jigsaw work into place and the nwp will start producing outputs that are being dictated by the teleconections. I do hope that next weeks mild blip is just that, and we can look forward to a few weeks of wintery hopefully snowy weather as we head into the new year.
  18. Pembroke Dangler
    What interests me is that the cold members go quite a way below the mean so it would appear that if it does go the cold route it could be a potent one and just in time for Xmas day it would appear.
  19. Pembroke Dangler
    The Beeb graphics look like earlier ones I think they should have an update soon and show more snow further south
  20. Pembroke Dangler
    Just had sleet here in Bynea near Llanelli looks like a streamer could set up moisture hitting the presceli hills and causing convection hope they get heavier so they can start turning more to snow
  21. Pembroke Dangler
    That's exactly where I expect it to settle and tbh the green tinge along the south coast of Wales will be pink by the early hours of Sunday morning
  22. Pembroke Dangler
    I think Sunday's track of the slider is still open to review South looking at the trends of the last couple nwp runs. I think it will eventually settle on a track that takes it through the Bristol Channel and so 50 miles north of it will be snow.
  23. Pembroke Dangler
    A slither more heights I would say around Iceland.
  24. Pembroke Dangler
    They must be pretty confident of heavy showers pushing down Irish Sea coast in organised troughs I would think and also I just been on the met office most recent video forecast and the winds did have more of a northerly look about them rather than north westerly which could be better for Irish Sea streamers to get further south and more of a chance of them getting over the beacons further south.
  25. Pembroke Dangler
    Same as 2013 when just 2 days before they had South Wales all rain and by just 12 hours before it adjusted South and we had red warnings out.
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