Pembroke Dangler

I think the control run is showing a slither more heights to the north if Scotland and the first slider a fairly week affair to the south west and the second slider to head in a similar path to the first mesoscale differences but significant never the less.

I think the 0oC isotherm will play a part on the second slider if the low elongates like it shows it will draw a continental feed lowering dew points so South of it will be rain north of it sleet and snow and lots of it too. Somewhere will get pasted I think.

Yes just watched the forecast and it looks like they are leaning towards the gfs solution from the 12z with the slider focusing more on the sw maybe West Midlands. I think the 0oC isotherm will be key here South of it will get rain and north of it sleet and snow.

If the sliders tend more South and west as can be the case here northern England and Scotland north of say Birmingham would end up in frigid cold air but mostly dry unless convection off the North Sea can make it over the Pennines but that depends on the strength of the wind .

From what I can remember with the last slider situation we had in January 2013 the fronts from that hit started off as rain then turned to snow with uppers only around -2. The thing was it was pulling air in from France so the dew points were below freezing also. Looking at this chart it could well be a similar set up and so you won't need uppers of -6-7 just need the few points to be dragged down ahead of the front so this could be a snow fest for more southerners too not just the usual north of M4 folk.

I did feel that the ecm was overplaying the eastward progress of the low next Sunday on the operational run, and it seemed to lower the heights to the north to quickly. Just seemed wrong to me. Westward corrections me thinks.

The thing iv noticed over the years in slider scenarios is they tend to correct South and west nearer the time. I think this could well happen if the Azores high gets a bit more displaced to the west and alows a smoother progression of the energy heading towards Spain. The jet stream is certainly steering on a nw se axis on this chart so this could be locked in cold and snow for a atleast a week or ten days afterwards I would say.

Guaranteed to be troughs the sst's are around 10 degrees with 850s of -8 on average convection will produce them and possibly thunder snow in some places where the clouds tower up.

I think we better get some snow shovels looking very likely now that starting next Thursday we could be headed for winter proper with a fair bit of snow on offer. I'd say we have a 70% chance now of snow to into next weekend as for further ahead we could be looking at locked in cold with slider possibilities heading towards mid month with jet stream angled nw to se from Greenland down to Spain.

Look at the shortwave at the point it buckles the Azores high it's aiming straight for Spain and if this come off there will be locked in cold can it......

If ever the phrase coined about the model thread of "get the cold in first" was justified it would be this chart. This would be like the snow of olden days bucket loads and the m4 getting a couple of foot of snow a la 1982 with no chance of going anywhere but the local pub on a snow day

So here we go a pub run special coming up. Will it continue with the cold hurricane? or something a little more sensible sliding into the continent with a wrap around northerly?? I for one will be looking for southward corrections on the trigger low over the next few outputs, if we can actually get the northerly nailed that is.

Definitely what we need to happen if snow for us southern folk is to be a realisation iv got everything crossed that the ukmo 168 chart verifies or as close to it as possible.

Couldn't resist a look at the models I was going to take a few days off due to the flip flopping, but iv noticed this past few days that the 00z runs seem to be showing warmer ensemble members the 06z slightly less warm members then the 12z a box of liquorice all sorts and then the pub run is showing the coldest members. It's like I can almost predict that tomorrow mornings run will be disappointing and by the time the pub run ends tomorrow we will be toasting a snowy nirvana. And all only 8 days away. It's crazy yet intriguing never the less but iv also noticed that the overall consensus is starting to point to a cold/mild uk north cold south not so much.

It's just hard to take any output seriously at the moment it's changing wildly each and every run and I think it's not getting energy exiting the us east coast right. It's only a small amount of energy that exits yet it pumps up the low in the mid Atlantic to something that looks wrong to me. Think I'll take a few days off model watching and return on the weekend when they should have a better handle on that low in the mid Atlantic.

Could be a boom chart next wait for it .......

Ukmo making looks much better than it's earlier runs making less of the Atlantic low and pushes it further South and not as deep so more of a clean route for the Azores to ridge right up to Greenland and very close to the gfs for the same time. Great run and gfs gets one over on the ukmo who'd have thought it

Can this set up get over the line? Can it? I mean come on we are owed so much after the last few winters this would be Worth the wait please no shortwave dramas or flip flopping.

For a second I just seen the picture and almost fell off my chair then i seen the comment and then the date. All is fine

Yes but this time it's not without support going by the 12z gfs and ukmet update so even if it was a little less amplified I think we would still get a potent northerly with a reload pattern setting up and rince and repeat.

-10 line moving into Scotland and widely -8 at 850 if the precipitation hits at night anywhere could have snow down to sea level

Lovely looking shower clouds starting to pile into northern Britain hope a few get to us in Wales over night when it's colder could be some fun and games to come hopefully

Just cold rain here temp 3.5 dew point 0.5

Anyone getting any of the white stuff from this band crossing?

As much as the output from the 12z gfs and ecm, ukmo erm not so much looks cold and seasonal I just feel we could do with a low sliding down towards Iberia to prop it up or a risk reward scenario a low sliding on a nw se axis through the channel into France which could trigger the Siberian express to come our way. Still nevertheless a good day model watching. I'm going to join the 18z in the pub.