Pembroke Dangler

Thats quite a drop towards months end and quite unanimous small crumbs and all that. The Beeb just posted there flag to the mast caveats included but not looking too festive pictures of umbrellas folding inside out around the big day itself but hey there's still over a week to go plenty of time for changes I still feel the high out east will have more of a say.

This set up does have a slight resemblance to the 2012 trough disruption saga which continually corrected west the closer it came to fruition...... Hmmm could this about to start that exact same trend I wonder? Would be nice just think the high will put up more of a fight and with cold blocks we all now how stubborn they can be to shift especially one with that huge cold pool over Russia just waiting to pounce onto our shores. What a tease of a pub run will be looking for this in the mornings runs as a possible new evolution fingers crossed.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/topkarten.aspx?map=2&model=gfs&var=1&run=12&time=135&lid=OP&h=0&tr=3#mapref we need the high over scandi to be further north and I would expect the trough disruption would be better but more positive than the earlier runs

Why not it's quite plausible, the CMA is powered by processors and weather data just like the big guns. I'm be hedging my bets mind you but it's a model run never the less.

Why do temps show so high on Tuesday ahead of the advancing front? It's showing between 6-8 for most of the U.K. At the surface so how can this mean that the approaching system can be anything other than rain? Sleet if your up on pen y fan in the beacons?

So will there be a short wave spoiler, or a split of that energy heading across the Atlantic sending to much energy north killing the block? Or will our winter go out with our coldest spell yet? Answers on a postcode but I know where my money will be going.

I too have been baffled, but looking at the northern hemisphere as whole during the last 3 winters it seems to me that due to the elongated PV heading into North America and the east of Asia it's more rugby ball shaped so it just leaves dregs of cold to tap into on our side of the globe which means the Atlantic gets mixed in easier from a north or nw wind direction.

Just spoken to a friend of mine that lives near Las Vegas and its snowed there today in a place called Henderson. I mean come on its a festering desert for crying out loud lol

It's exactly what I said last night just look at all the cold air spilling into the mid west of the u.s. Someone better tell Mother Nature what sharing means. I mean come on its farcical, even if the Synoptics fell right for us we get -2 -3 uppers at best.

It's like the u.s is draining all the cold out the arctic down into the mid west and as far south as northern Florida. But the problem is if we get cold Synoptics they won't be that cold because the states has drained the core of the cold and leaves us with a few dregs. It's so frustrating but hey we are a little island in the north east Atlantic about 1500 miles from the arctic circle. Go figure lol

Something similar to what I posted above then. Thanks Ian. Easter is earlier this year I wonder what the odds are on a white Easter?? It's normally a better bet than a white Christmas. Might pop to the bookies tomorrow worth a pound lol.

The next couple of weeks will define the rest of the winter early spring period I feel, and it will be led by a ssw anomaly that will squeeze the life out of the ao which will cause the PV to loose its grip over Greenland/eastern Canada. This will then send heights poleward maybe not all the way but enough to force the air across Western Europe to come from a pm/am and will lock in for a month. This will wax and Wane from time to time in terms of nw/w sometime direct n'erly nne but the theme will be one of colder than average. I'm taking a punt and going for a snowy Easter this year for the whole of the U.K. At some point. This is what I feel the met are hinting at but thought I'd put my take on it

If nothing else I believe most of Wales if not all of it just experienced its first full 24hr period (since forever it seems) with no rain falling. Il take that and I'm sure the areas up north who have been worse effected would too. Here's to another dry day tomorrow

Just need to hope the express don't publish something saying severe icy blast to cripple the uk in February with weeks of disruptive snow We might be in business then going by the latest signals from the strat etc.

Hell of a shout

Think the models are not coping well with the inversion caused by ex hurricane Alex. It's causing the warm air to topple in over us from Saturday night into Sunday which means Wales will be on the milder side of an upper warm front. So by the time the Atlantic comes knocking on Monday unless your on pen y fan or above 400 metres looks like rain. But give it until tomorrow to throw the towel in because the inversion could end up further west and that COULD leave more of us in the colder air such is the turmoil in the models.

I would expect a correction west closer to the time, and the undercut taking place further south and west, with the energy joining the Lower pressure over the med as the jet angle is pointing straight at it and one low pressure loves another low pressure as an easy route away from the high over the uk! After that the Azores high will link to the high over the uk and drag the jet ne putting Scotland back in the mild air by Wednesday/Thursday followed by a sinking high. That's my punt anyway.

Just had a heavy sleet shower here 2.5c slight frost this morning too mostly on the cars looking around but still more seasonal than we've had

I believe it's a completely plausible option looking at the whole of the northern hemisphere. A uk high drifting slowly east with low heights drifting slowly east through Iberia. Why not I say.

It's the heights increasing into Spain and Portugal which seems to hault the progress south and east of the shortwave, this is causing it to become stuck around us, fills and becomes flabby with no where to go.

I think that Irish lass is being mentioned here and there, Shannon I think they said her name was

As long as the blocking signals remain I think we might get a couple more bites of the cherry further down the line. Later this month and beginning of Feb I'm taking a punt at

It's the express's fault for ramping up snow and ice and coldest its been in 50yrs. Does my head in lol

Well that's done it the express ramping up snow and ice prospects means the barbecue will be out next week they always ruin it lol

Not sure about bitter February but they're on about bitter next week by like Tuesday. As long as the express leave it alone this could be a done deal I think