Pembroke Dangler

Ecm brings in the cold a day or so earlier than the ukmo in its early frames, a large swathe of the country under -9 uppers by Tuesday = snow and not just the marginal mush either. Only concern is the ground temps are still warm from Decembers heat wave so need them to cool rapidly for snow to stick around I feel. Looking forward to the thread going mad next week good luck all. I'm off back to the model thread to see how the ecm finishes

I'd be very interested if this up coming cold can go as far as to produce a polar low given the fetch of the air from up north it looks like it could have enough instability to produce such features looking at the gfs 12z and 6z after t96

That's quite an impressive chart for any time of the year, not because of the cold or snow but just for the shear Synoptics given the year we've had in meteorology terms! Almost feels like we deserve a big huge area of high pressure slap bang on top of us!

Just had a few flakes blowing in the wind in loughor near Swansea Looks like a shower is on it's way here fingers crossed

Cant help but think that had this current set up have been in place say 20 years ago we'd have all done alot better from it imo! I think its got to be something to do with climate change that with a source of air ok not directly coming from the arctic but more from scandi would have been colder back then compared to now its just sour grapes i know but hey i remeber as a kid having some snow from a quick topler that lasted a couple of days atleast but this is more sustained yet we just cant tap into any fridged cold air and is so frustrating

The beebs precip viewer outside of 2 days is never accurate it just shows the precip areas but not the type of precip if that makes sense

Ah the classic tree branch dangler or convergence zone by definition snow showers will be continuous either side of it in this set up always been good imby in this set up

An occluded front is even more complex contains both warm and cold air which makes it difficult to forecast and this is what looks like is happening to the polar low its occluding so could be a headache to forcast snow and rain id imagine.

Think it will be literally a nowcast event and could be further east could be forther west but its definatley coming and prime spots will be through the middle of wales id say with snow more likely on its eastern flank. Lots of radar watching tonight for sure good luck to those who get dumped on somwhere in wales will get a pasting i think.

This could be one to watch Jo Farrow just mentioned the track across ireland crossing over the irish sea later hitting wales, but i beleive the snow will settle above 150m in land from the coast where here will be a sleety mix but mostly rain unless we get a wrap around of the colder air currently over the country this could be the saving grace for coastal areas or most likely rain otherwise.

In this set up the isobars show direct north to south alignment come Sunday, but am I right in saying that the wind direction will be nnw because in a low pressure system the wind is drawn towards the centre? I may be completely wrong but sure iv seen this explained before in here

Pinched this from the mods thread but it's worth showing what could happen later next week and a trend I hope gathers momentum in the next few days! It shows a prolonging of the cold and the Atlantic weather systems being forced under the block centred just east of Iceland, the potential is there for undercuts to occur which could be the holy grail for snow for us in wales! Way off in la la land I know but a trend never the less!

That's a strong high on the anomalies chart centred just east of Iceland could this be the trend that the other models may pick up? I hope so that's got reload potential written all over it and undercuts my fingers are crossed

Yep it's just going to be down to how lucky we are and how intense any ppn will be but agree all the ingredients are there could be a busy weekend of lampost and radar watching coming up

I think our met office warnings will come Saturday - Monday most likely as disturbances flow down from the north picking up moisture off the Irish Sea where sst's are still quite high for the time of year so convection could produce some thunder snow in places exposed to the nnw north wind! Could be an interesting weekend coming up if the models stay true to what they show! But it could all go ti.s up as has been the case for this winter and let downs don't think I can take anymore lol

My take on it the showers will form in a line from the Llyn peninsular down to Bridgend as its most eastern point anywhere west of this could get anything from about 2-10 inches Saturday to Monday further east of Bridgend might get a rouge shower or 2 but the beacons shadow effect will prevent the worst hitting east of Bridgend! That's what I see anyway sorry east wales but it's normally the case unless a front moves down with the flow which could happen then we could all be in business so here's hoping we all get a enough to smile about!

Just wow is what I can say about that its a thing of beauty ice days and snow anywhere that screams, and all in the semi reliable too! BANK

Can I say "it's going to snow" all over the country at some point in the next 7 days in this thread? Because that's what I see going by these charts! ITS COMING nuf said it may even snow in the Channel Islands and my uncle in the Scilly isles st marys to be precise they might get some of the white stuff there too so there we go it's a snowy picture all over the British isles starting early Wednesday and lasting through to this time next week at least

Indeed i will be keeping a keen eye on the Radar come thursday night could be first settling snow here for 20 odd months

It's dependent on the wind direction and the dynamics of the upper air instability, if the wind is nnw it pushes the trough slightly more in land and develops branches like a twig at the convergence zone. Cant find any past pics to show it though.

This set up seems very ripe for an old Pembroke Dangler, Its a trough which is shaped like a tree branch which hugs the western side of wales pepping up shower activity, and can cause snow streamers off the irish sea, il be looking for this in next few fax charts sorry mods if a bit of an imby post but we tend to do very well out these types of set ups!!

North Greenland lobe of vortex spilling into Canada, could we just get those heights higher into Greenland could be right on the money its trending that way if you compare the to updates from today and yesterday for the same time fingers are well an truly crossed but it's over a week away so not holding my breath!

You watch this system get backed up further west so all of wales gets in on the snow including us on the south coast it's looking more and more likely each model run! My met office app is showing light snow now from midnight to 3am Wednesday

Amazing post and from what I can pick out of this could it be that westward corrections are coming into play which is similar to what occurred back in January 2013 where the models 4 days out were too progressive and then suddenly at just t12 it was only an event which got as far as Birmingham before heading south into France followed by another attempt which was the same! I'm punting on westward corrections again!

My thoughts exactly, i think the rounder low is the problem at 144 but the result is the same with that raging eastelry in coming would feel pretty raw by 192 looking at that!! Westward corrections will come over the next few days and the low will be less deep and more sqaushed looking compared to tonights ecm