Pembroke Dangler

Winds are starting to get some bite to them WNW now temp fell from 9.5 to 8.5 in last hour. It's coming

You'll get your share if the ecm is correct for next week

could we get a Russian high link up in the next few frames??

No I think it's the one to the west of the outer Hebrides see the kink in the isobars if it flows south could develope into a small low (not the polar kind) could be mixed rain/sleet/snow due to warm sectors etc

ECM is like a dog with a bone it ain't giving it up that easily.

Posted this on the mods thread but come to mamma and just 72hrs away embedded in sub 528 Dam could be a cracker

That little feature to the sw could be interesting down here embedded in sub 528 dam thicknesses would produce a fair bit of snow I would imagine sorry if a bit imby but haven't seen a flake for 5 years

Funny earlier on the Beeb showed Moscow at -23 and I thought strange showing that in the middle of a forecast when we are at +8/9 but I think they dropped some sort of hint as to they're thinking going forward. Just my take anyway could be nothing

That little shortwave to the east of Stockholm is scuppering our Russian/scandi high link up dam it. got there in the end though

Morning runs today poor for cold and longevity this afternoons and tonight's slowly moving more amplified again fence is definately a good place to sit for now. Let's see how the 18z models the Russian high as this is where my interest lies.

It's what I was thinking there would be a link up of heights from the Azores all the way to Russia by day 11/12 the Russian high will meet up with it and show it the way in stead of it floundering around our shores all winter long as it has been doing

I do get a feeling the models are underplaying the Russian high and it will have its say going into mid month and beyond. Something i afoot that they can't get a handle on.

Quite exciting indeed now all we need is to get it to within t96 and we can start getting very excited would be ripe for some Irish Sea streamers moving through the western side of Wales and Cheshire gap perhaps.

Crazy model watching today is it on is it off the models are firming up on where the placement of the Azores high will be in a weeks time this for me will be the game changer if only we can get it to move further into the western Atlantic and ridge towards Greenland/Iceland. If not well I'm off skiing to Borovets in early Feb that's when I'll be seeing my snow -24 there on Saturday night brrrr

That's disrupting and heading into Spain if we can get a westward correction we'd be right on the money but that's surely disrupting against a block to the north east look at the cold front heading straight down into Spain.

The dartboard low returns in low res gfs knows how to throw a New Year's Eve party fair doos to it

Op is nearly 10 degrees lower than the mean but there's a cluster around -10 I'd take one of those I'm not picky as long as there's snow chances

Wow that's quite unanimous support from the control nearly identical with energy undercutting the block coming out of the states and height lowering into Iberia.

Could be having markets on the Thames like the old days if those temps projected by the 6z come off brutal cold and proper ice days with a good few feet of snow in higher places and a foot or 2 in lower areas and not a sw wind in sight.

Iv got a really good feeling about this coming few weeks the ensembles should provide a clearer picture later but if there is support I think some local councils will be needing a s&*t load of grit. The kind of snow that could bring the country to a standstill may be just around the corner.

Its as if the minute we start saying the northern hemisphere drivers mjo ao wind speeds all point to poor cold prospects,the weather does its own thing and says let's give the uk some cold. And when they we're showing potential in November early December we get a period of nothing followed by a couple of storms. Just goes to show how hard it must be for the experts to produce medium range forecasts. Looking forward to the prospects moving forward cold in by New Year's Day then reload potentials and a cross polar flow from the ecm right at the end but I do feel thats going off on one a bit but I'd take it. Get the cold in first as they say ......

Oh my days that's got to be the biggest channel low Iv seen with its little bro just behind please Santa a late Christmas present is better than no Christmas present merry Christmas all

If they can get cold and snow in the Sahara desert then we can get cold and snow here and the Synoptics are quite favourable to get these to our shores in the next few weeks! Merry Xmas all

To rub salt in the winter wounds it's been snowing in the Sahara desert in the last few days https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/12/20/stunning-photos-capture-rare-snow-sahara-desert/amp/

If only that pattern could shift a couple of thousand miles further east. Looks like a west based -nao to me