Pembroke Dangler

If history is to be taken into consideration then might we see the azores displaced further south and west and the disruption of the trough occuring further south and west to correct the eastern byass of most of the models this far out. What ever happens i bet the cheif forcaster at the met is going to get his pencil out to do some corrections purely based on the fact of these historical disruptions. How much history is taken into account in these set ups?

It's such a similar set up to January 2013 it's uncanny and from what I can remember these types of synopsis have a starting point to Far East and then all of a sudden closer to the event you get westward corrections! Imby we did well the last time this happened! Anyone else think this is something that could happen again?

-4 uppers would be fine as long as we had a feed of air coming in from the continent to produce lower dew points it snowed with uppers as low as -2 before with continent sourced air but as march gets closer then the 850s would need to be lower because the sun is stronger hope that helps

It seems to me like a very similar set up is occuring here to what happened last January when the Atlantic was showing to shove the scandi block away with ease from t120, then as the time got closer westward corrections started to show with instead of the troughs disrupting in the North Sea they eventually disrupted over the south west with copious amounts of snow falling over South Wales remember very well they issued the only red warning ever issued covering Cardiff to Swansea! So its not by any means over yet more runs needed and watch the westward corrections happen iv got a good feeling about this scandi block

Yes I would have thought so looking at the gm modified output IF posted shows 528 embedded air wrapped around it and coming in off the warmer Irish Sea could beef up the showers with snow hail sleet probably some rain for god measure could get some big cloud tops I would think...... Thunder snow anybody

As IF alluded to yesterday the swing of the models over and after the weekend could either make or end our winter and it's really down to that chunk of vortex over Canada and Greenland which needs to take a hike allowing heights to build into Greenland settling the Atlantic and giving our little island a chance to dry out in peace and cold quiet with ice days oh what a dream that would be, not even snow just crisp sunny and dry would do for the vast majority of people i think!!!

So yet another winter storm brewing in the nw Atlantic with our name on it for Sunday into Monday, although not coinciding with spring tides like the storms of a few weeks ago it will still produce a lot of unwanted rain for money, thermal gradients behind the initial front seem very marked dropping from +5 to -5 850s in a very short space of time could cause very heavy rain followed by a spell of sleet and snow in heavier bursts almost anywhere settling above 300 metres then Monday into Tuesday? Anyone's guess.

Looking at this from a hemispherical point of Vue, gives you a great perspective of what's going on I mean look at the 850 hpa temp over Moscow on April 5th and then look at Barcelona its the same, if that verified then something is up climatically is it not?

Has anyone got that old bbc weather forecast that Ian mcaskgill did back in the late 90's because synoptically the 18z gfs would produce that epic set of events surely! It won't happen I just keep telling myself but then again if it did wow could be said a few times this time next week

Let the trend be your friend in this situation! I think the detail will change but with heights to the north of the uk showing within the reliable the air will be of the cold variety, just how cold remains to be seen but as the ukmo and ECM are showing the encore of winter could be the best part of an otherwise mediocre show! So here's to the final chapter and let it please have a happy ending.

After looking at exeters modified fax postet by fergie in the southwest thread, it would seem that the trough will disrupt earlier probably over Southern Ireland and head se very similar to the January event which blanketed most of wales and West Midlands, it's a trend to see westward corrections again, and also the Siberian high is moved further west also as the catalyst for the earlier disruption, could be that this set up could be vertually identical to the January event! Although stronger heights to the northeast being the only major difference on this occasion! Dp getting lower as the front stalls over the sw caused by easterlys from the continent so rain turning to snow rapidly as the cold air undercuts from the south east and once again wales and West Midlands and southwest England could get a dumping baring maybe the south west coast say west of Plymouth again! Talk about déjà vu!

As has been the case on countless number of times with these set ups, expect to see westward corrections on the closer runs from t76 down to t0. time and time again its done it and this seems another classic case where the models start stepping everything that little bit further west as we get to the time!!

Well to add insult to injury a huge gust of rainy wind just blew the head off my snow man! It's like the Atlantic has brought an axe with him and is going around executing our poor snow men it's a sad day think il go down the pub and drown my sorrows violins please

Well back to the model thread I go ever searching for the next snowmagedon, it's been emotional but worth every flake that came down 5.2 weeks of proper winter left guys hold on in there we'll have some more snow to talk about I'm sure

Just seen the latest news 24 forecast and everything been shifted further west again snow gor Atleast 6 hours possible almost anywhere in South Wales as far west as say Carmarthen at least right on the edge

I'm thinking if there is a small trough developing in the Bristol Channel and we are to the north or north east of this development the winds would be fed in from the east or north east feeding in cold due points from the midlands! Now if this happens the warmer moist air in the Bristol Channel could cause more convection and so more (heavier) precipitation and this could lead to a fair old dumping anywhere in the South Wales area! Will be keeping a keen eye on the next nae 18z should be very interesting I think.

It's to do with the evaporative cooling effect because the cloud base during snow set ups would be lower in altitude so the mountains of south and mid wales just rinse the cloud of all it's precipitation before it gets to north wales! In rain the temperature of the cloud is warmer so they can tower up higher in the atmosphere making it over the mountains easier and also because of updrafts from the mountains themselves the cloud can get even more saturated with moisture so in effect more rain bearing than what it was for the south!

Iv had a look at this system over the last day or so and it's just not fitting correctly with the rest of the overall setup ie the ridge to the northe east over southern parts of Scandinavia! Look how at the same time the trough to the southwest of Ireland starts disrupting dragging the winds inwards towards its centre which would make them easterly or south easterly. Basically the system cannot travel directly north into the south east without moving naturally to the west at the same time to try and link with the system out west! So the moral is, expect westward corrections tomorrow!

I live in penyrheol and it's been snowing all day off and on but no radar support so I'm bewildered tbh

Snow streamers coming in off Bristol Channel hitting just to the east of the gower, very heavy snow here now again woo hoo

Whiteout proper snow coming from all different directions heaviest iv ever seen it in my 32 years in gorseinon 60 metres above sea level!

Just had lightening in gorseinon whole sky lit up proper heavy snow but lightening?

Confirmation heavy snow (blizzards) in gorseinon nr Swansea white out

Rainfall radar from met office showing the band shrinking an fragmenting as it heads I to the Bristol Channel! Good taster of what's to come and the bbc forecast this to be light rain or drizzle so I think they are underestimating the temperature and this could play into our hands I feel for Friday!! More westward corrections to come I feel parts of Pembrokeshire could now get in the game

Another point would be that the cloud associated with a frontal system is always ahead of the frontal boundary, so the front on the chart may show to be sitting in the irish sea or south west approaches, but the cloud would be ahead of the boundary along with the precipitation line. Hope that helps too.