Pembroke Dangler

Could we grow our own cold pool out of this set up? Or atleast one across Central Europe to tap into, I mean the sun is not in the sky as long now and land will cool quicker than the sea. It's definitely starting to pool going by the later parts of the ecm and I just think the uppers nearer the time will be lower than projected. I hold much hope.

This could be a nice way start winter day 1 heavy snow over all of Wales Bank that

Nice to see that circular ball of fire again in the sky after days of horrendous rain. Hopefully we get some nice crisp days in the next couple of weeks to start winter off and maybe a surprise wintry shower or two. Charts screem cold but the uppers aren't going to be cold enough for lower areas by the looks of things for us southerners unless the precipitation comes in the night. Happy winter season my fellow Welsh folk

After the last few winters mate I'd take a few weeks out of the metreolgical 12 weeks as would a few on here i bet.

Can I just bank that chart it's a thing of beauty and would lock winter in until march 2018. What a block.

Gfs gets the heights all the way to the pole on this run could it get the second wave up to cement the block I wonder? The low exiting the eastern seaboard could do with being a bit deeper to help the waa up into Greenland but it's still heading in a positive direction for us coldies

Definitely a more southerly track to this low on gfs could it end up in the channel I wonder by the time Friday comes?

The overall pattern looks like it will rince and repeat and I think uppers should be ok for some night time snow to lower levels in the south now and again. Probably won't stick but will be nice to see blowing around the lamp posts. This repeating process I feel will get more and more potent as actual winter time gets closer so it's a cold mild cold outlook with progressively colder cold spells and less mild mild spells if that makes sense.

I just feel that we could do with a few more weeks of benign weather like we've had as all the time the cold is getting more intense to our north and as long as the pieces of the jigsaw fall into place later on this month or early December, if we are to hit the jackpot with colder Synoptics we get a higher chance of snow rather than something the models are showing to hit mid month and we end up with a bit of cold rain and the odd frost. So for me the charts can keep churning out eye candy 10 day charts until the last week of the month.

Latest noaa predictions show Ophelia is still a hurricane or extra tropical hurricane just to the sw of Ireland at 8am Monday, I think the folk of cork and surrounding areas could have a pretty big Monday wake up call. Batten down the hatches my fellow Celtic friends across the Irish Sea.

Il be getting some nice tail winds coming back from Bulgaria after my skiing break on 14th Feb il promise to bring some snow back with me but seriously if we can get the ecm to agree with the evolution the gfs and ukmo upto 144 I think we will be in the game for the coldest spell of the winter.

I love this post simply because if the models start with wrong info then how can they be right in 6, 12, 18, 24 hrs .. and so on. It's such a conundrum when there is high pressure to our east and north models just can't get a handle on it unless its a zonal Atlantic train. Just subtle changes in an hour from now could put the whole days model suites completely out. And the post by Bring Back 1962-63 just goes to show exactly that imo. Great post

This has got January 2013 written all over it in that the trough will have nowhere to go but under and a snow event will take place over southern Britain. The models can't work it out this far out so they revert to climatology and try to force the block away to easily. But could the Atlantic win? It's knife edge stuff but intriguing never the less.

Gona stick my neck out and say we will have snow towards the back end of next week with a trough disrupting similar to 2013. The models are starting to toy with the idea before climatology kicks in a bit latter on but they often do because of where we are. The block out east is not going anywhere trust me

just a few more westward corrections and game on here I think, can't help but feel this is so similar to the event of few years ago where the Atlantic just folded into Iberia after being shown to bulldoze through the uk just a few days before keep those corrections west coming.....

there's got to be a lot of entropy going into next weekend as the models seem to be struggling with where to position the uk high, will it drift se again and give us the euro high we've had most of this winter so far, or will it position more nw of us allowing another northerly outbreak, or will it stay over us? The jury is out and I think it won't be clearer until Monday next week.

Heavy sleety rain here now after snow shower earlier think the milder sector is over us now

Try this one http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=radar;sess=

A line of showers just coming into cardigan now on its way

Some showers just clearing Carmarthen now heading towards swansea

The precip is starting to pivot and head se now fizzling out as it goes colder air starting to tuck in now behind temp here has dropped from 4.5 an hour ago down to 3.0 now. Let's hope the showers that follow are of a more wintery flavour to them

Sweet spots look like Aberystwyth in a line through to swansea (imby hopefully) even a dusting will do I'm not greedy when it's been nearly 5 years since I seen a flake here

Could be a dangler setting up and if the convection off the Irish Sea gets going could get some decent cumulonimbus clouds and dare I say it, thunder snow a possibility.

A 995 Mb low in the med to prop it up too that's not a sinker that's for sure bank that chart

That's today's warning area that applies to