Paul T

8

This March will smash the 'Max' CET record by some distance. The current record is 5.8oC from 1888, but 2013 is set to come in at around 5.3oC. Thats a massive 0.5oC lower than second place. To put that in perspective, its mixing it with the big boys; 1963 is the coldest JAN max by 0.7oC, whilst FEB 1947 is the coldest by 1.1oC. DEC 2010 couldnt even make top spot! Amazing month, up there with Dec 2010 in my view.

looking at latest output, the CET will be: Currently: 3.304 oC 25th: 3.232 oC (daily1.5) 26th: 3.154 oC (daily1.2) 27th: 3.107 oC (daily1.9) 28th: 3.039 oC (daily1.2) 29th: 2.976 oC (daily1.2) 30th: 2.943 oC (daily2.0) 31st: 2.945 oC (daily3.0) So, without adjustments, we are looking at 2.9oC; with adjustments, perhaps 2.7oC? But so many nuances persist: colder nights under clearer skies? warmer days under clear skies? Faster or slower breakdown from the SW? Another amazing fact from all of this is the current temperature of the North sea! Parts of it are seeing -3 below the typical average. Paul

6.6. May revise if I remember closer to deadline.

2.8

NAEFS 'Pressure anomalie' charts currently show Low pressure dominanting over the North sea from 4th Feb onwards. Forget all of your other shenanigans, model watching and analysis, this particular model sweet illistrated that 'That ECM' wouldn't happen at all in Dec and it recently told us of the end of this cold spell 10/11 days prior to Sat's breakdown. Will be back on this thread early Feb to pull out this chart again

Moderate snow here in Portishead, but pretty wet stuff, not settling to well. Good fun rather than a real snow event thus far.

Cloud building, temp dropping in Bristol. Dropped 0.5oc in last 45 mins. Keep on dropping...

But, crickey, dont take my word for it....it might all turn snowy at 4pm and then I will feel very bad!!

Thursday 31st @ 14:24

Oh i dont know about this - what i will say is that before the front came on Friday it was 4.2oC and then it dropped to 1.1oC in 45 mins....so it can happen....

Should be ok going there (or here shall i say- I work at the Hospital!) but dont come back to late (i.e after 7pm)....

Think the NAE has got a little excited. This screams a rain/sleet event to me until maybe midnight...

The ppn does seem to fade as it pushes North towards Somerset actually, looking at last 15/20 mins

Can't you access from phone?

As Ian says, the models have it a good go, but are miles out already, absolutely miles. That band has some crazy rates moving into south Devon, and is moving at one hell of a pace. It will be up to Brizzle by 1:30am and of it remains strong there could be one big suprise for some come tomorrow morning. Classic now say event. Taunton in firing line for some heavy snow in just 10minutes, and could give inches within a few hours...Who would have thought that earlier...lets just hope the temps hold out

Cheers for the heads up, didnt even see the streamer when i had a browse of the radar 5 mins ago! Very unstable conditions clearly, will be an interesting night of radar watching I reckon... Only concern for my location with the streamer is that im right on the sea and it appears to be a westwards wind, I just hope it veers slightly more Southerly (never said that before when wanting snow!) but its anyhow its only 1.3oC so not to bad at the moment.

Latest NAE showing similar areas hit, but is evolving the front in a slightly different way. Very rare to see that much change within T30...

Why does the 06 NMM say for mid day tomorrow

Hmmmm, hope seems to be fading for the snow on Tuesday in BRizzle, slipping off SW me thinks. Next 06z will be key.

These type of things tend to revise westwards as the event approaches. I think that where the NAE has it for tomorrow's 06z run is where it will actually be. Fingers crossed, eh?!!

Can I just highlight that the front to the SW of Cornwall has moved 30 miles towards land in 2 hours!! I would go to bed and have a browse out the curtains at 4am if I was you!! Good luck and good night!

As Ian says- judging by the ppn totals on the latest NAE there could be a lot of ppn around Wiltshire, Soms, Glous, Bristol from Tuesday 6am... Just need the temps to hang in there!!!

in the next few frames It actually programmes that High to move to Europe, which is even worse for us!

With regard to Tuesday snow. The biggest risk I can currently see is that it all slips further South, this, and the marginality of temps of course.