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Paul T

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Everything posted by Paul T

  1. Paul T
    Cant face the dissapointment of when the ppn arrives it will be rain! Night night
  2. Paul T
    well Plymouth is down to 3oC, from 5oc so its changing there for sure... I am at 4.3oC, cannot even imagine getting snow from here, but in Ian we trust.....
  3. Paul T
    The temp here has risen from 2.8oc at 11pm to 4.3oc What the hell is going on! Not sure about this one, could be a massive error...the NAE suggests i should go from 2oC to 0oc around now, nd its risen 1.5oc (has always been cloudy) Never mind, off to bed. Another let down on the cards?
  4. Paul T
    A massive development for me would be seeing the first sign of the sleet over the moors to officially turn pink (snow). As suggested in the midnight image you posted...
  5. Paul T
    I have circled a growth in ppn behind the front....is this a sign of more ppn developing, ready to join the front?? next 20 minutes will tell us yes or no....
  6. Paul T
    I WIN!!
  7. Paul T
    Yay! the first bit of Sleet from the incoming front - FIRST ONE TO SPOT SNOW from the SW front wins a mars bar!
  8. Paul T
    The reason we all need the temps to drop is because i believe the band of ppn that is infront of the main band will progress inland quicker than expected; Therefore we all want this to be snow and not rain before the main band 'properly' drops the temps...
  9. Paul T
    Temp has dropped from 3.8 to 3.4 here in 30 mins...
  10. Paul T
    To give some idea of whats programmed, in terms of Precipitation building to our SW, the GFS 12z charts give a good idea: Timings may vary slightly of course... 6PM: Its approaching, but mainly 'Blue', max ppn rates of 3/4mm an hour. 9PM: It builds as it approaches: PPN rates of up to 7-8mm an hour. MIDNIGHT: Continues to build, PPN rates now up to 10mm an hour widely. 3AM: Firmly over the SW with PPN rate still widely between 7-10mm.
  11. Paul T
    touch and go. If i was a betting man, i would say rain from the smaller occluded from initially (currently over Penzance) followed by heavy wet snow as the ppn rates increase. Could last for a few hours, but then back to sleet and rain soon after. I have been watching that area as I have my family and friends from Plymouth/South hams to keep updated!
  12. Paul T
    Of interest... The main band isnt on the radar yet (as expected, circled as '1'), however, the 'small' occluded front that prceeds this (2) is actually really heavy and potentially more potent that forecast...
  13. Paul T
    Can I also reiterate that the NAE expects the temperature in Somerset and the General Bristol area to be 3oC at 6pm and 2oC at mid-night (before the main front) so relax - its all ok for the moment. The only thing that could keep the lying snowfall totals down slightly is if there is increased convection prior to the main band, and rain/sleet falls, leaving a damp ground before the main snowfall arrives, but this is a minor detail.
  14. Paul T
    Met office have extended warnings in many areas, with a RED warning in southern Wales. Very rare. It would appear that this front has some clout in terms of PPN levels, and appears to be upgrading.
  15. Paul T
    Yes, pistolpetes and Mituozo, Not only does this chart dispell the myth about the GFS 06 and 18z being more 'unreliable' but it actually confirms that the GFS 00Z, 06Z, 12Z and the 18z are in fact ALL more unrealiable that the ECM 00z and 12Z! I can rest easy now
  16. Paul T
    The way in which the GFS 18Z deals with the pressure to the south of the UK, over France and into the Biscay between 102hrs to 144hrs is nothing short of farcical. Just have a little run quickly through this period, its shocking!
  17. Paul T
    That Low is heading in a slightly different (North East) direction that the 12z, as attached...
  18. Paul T
    That doesnt show a massive upgrade with a lot of snow in the SE. Bit misleading for some. Its does indicate a decent angle of attack of the approaching low however.
  19. Paul T
    Interestingly, the position of the PPN over the UK at 12:30pm is already where the NAE positioned it for 6pm today. The NAE at 12pm today had the PPN clearly over Ireland, and not over the Irish sea. (below) Whilst the current radar grab and 6pm NAE look very similar (below) Is the PPN being more progressive? Will it push further inland than expected tonight? Will the band on 'friday' arrive sooner, is this a sign it may drive through the UK further than currently programmed? So many questions!
  20. Paul T
    Save that 120hr Fax chart and see how close it is in another 48hrs. Hmmm. The NAE over progressive runs may have just sparked something to produce that 120FAX. Something doesn't quite sit right here, but I'm to tired to work it out. Goodnight.
  21. Paul T
    Current Friday 12:00 Fax: Previous Friday 12:00 Fax:
  22. Paul T
    Sunday night 3am MAXIMUMS? bit cold.
  23. Paul T
    @ 78hrs the shortwave in the Atlantic that develops and hits us at 108hrs on the 12z is more of a distinct system on the 18z. This could have quite an implication. its prob going to be delayed, but may be stronger as it hits the UK?
  24. Paul T
    from regional SW thread
  25. Paul T
    Either a delay in the band moving across or more blocking? hmmmm...greater blocking and a more southerly tracked low is odds on to reveal this IMO.
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