Paul T

NAEFS also shows a full on assault from the Atlantic at 168hrs, with absolutely no blocking to out North or East, the atlantic can just stroll in. Criminal! I have been following this model quite a bit, and this is by far the worse it has looked for a couple of weeks.

Oh dear, Breakdown pretty much nailed for next Saturday on GFS and ECM. Can't see where any rescue would come from now. The ensembles are almost all suggesting the same "warm up" in 850's, this wasn't the case with previous breakdown suggestions. We are 2-0 with five minutes to play...it's not lookin good. On a brighter note, some fun Synoptics today and early next week expected with potential snow likely to pop up almost anywhere. Mustn't grumble on that basis.

Just for the record, with regard to the Mega low everyone has picked up around 144hrs; There is currently a 948mb Low sat in the Atlantic, and its doing sod all in terms of removing the cold. I still dont buy a SW'rly breakdown next Thursday, I said it earlier and was accused at clutching at straws, but the 18z has indicated a little more potential for cold prelonging. This time tomorrow im hoping to read poeple saying the that ''The models had a wobble yesterday, but it seems the cold is here to stay''

Possibley, but the only truely 'milder' part of the ECM is between 168 - 216. Not bad to be honest, not great, but not bad...

christ! Now i didnt expect that!

lol, yeah, however, actually not as progressive as yesterday 12z, trend is ok at 144hrs and 168hrs. However, 192hrs puts the seal on the atlantic breakdown. I still have slight hope that it wont breakdown this simply and im usually more pessimistic on these things. When i see a SW'rly at 120hrs I will wave my white flag! Paul

120hrs has the energy from canada/America are going very much more south. This will have big effects downstream on the run. I havent actuallty seen the 144+ but this will be a decent run with energy going further south of the UK....

Your poor luck yesterday will be rewarded a some point. Karma says you will have a blizzard on Monday Morning!!

Hi David, Firstly, Mods, feel free to move to regionals? The ppn associated with the Lows on Monday and Tuesday is very unpredictable and will be really difficult to forecast - wait for the forecasters later today to warn of the potential snow on monday/Tuesday, but only 'vaguely' (and rightly so!). What is most likely IMO? The general pattern is the bulk of the ppn may initally slide through the SW and maybe under Wales, but will then make progress (but weaken) into Wales and England. It is something that will be sorted by two things: The NAE charts from +24/30hrs and watching the radar when its happening!

For me the 06Z indicates the big potential for this cold spell to roll on and on. The current set up for next week gives a continuous flow that continually undercuts us in the UK. The low pressure systems that the GFS had previously forecast as strolling across the UK next Wed/Thurs are now being programmed with much more potential for undercutting. In my view what we are seeing is a flow would usually be a W/SW'rly zonal type flow, but the SSW and Northern blocking are combining nicely now and 'saving' us from this boredom. 7/8 days ago the GFS did at many times show milder Westerly’s for the UK today, however we are currently under an Easterly influence with snow lying across the UK. Undercut central: Undercut tomorrow: undercut on Tuesday: Undercut on Wednesday: Increasing undercut potential next Friday: More undercut potential next Saturday?: The snow potential from these charts is really strong. Not least mentioning that during tomorrow, Monday and Tuesday there are pretty chunky snow events happening at different areas of the UK. Good times.

not a chance unfortunately!

The GFS and METO are similar until around 66hrs, and then they start moving in different directions: Main differences are highlighted below, but what is important is the fact that these differences make or break the models accuracy for the rest of the 96hrs+ period. Therefore one can be binned, but which one?! The low (marked as X) is 400 miles different, this drives the main changes at 96hrs.

There really is a lot of transference and convection in the Bristol channel, the north coastal areas could be in luck for the afternoon....one to watch!

Hold tight WSM, Clevedon and into Bristol - Round two's showers start in 15mins!

tonights temps:

Yes, but not really much - its only around 6/7oC in much of the channel in the winter, so the gradient between the temp of the air and sea isnt that great (so not to many increases in convection and therefore showers) however, it certainly does no harm! I will post a snippet of the NW radar (as im not really allowed) The PPN 45 mins ago was this: Now at 11:25 its clearly building:

I tell you what, the ppn is pepping up in south Wales and into the Brizzle channel a bit...something to watch, maybe the NAE is correct?!

Nice view from the balcony - shame the harbour didnt freeze this time (it actually does-so often as its not particlary salty)

Plymouth - Chaddlewood to be exact - @ 8am 110m asl

my Parents had 3 inches of wettish snow...i will post a pick they sent me..two ticks

At least my car is happy this morning

If the 12pm and 3pm NAE PPN charts are to be believed, then this should be sizeable and move on up the bristol channel to south Wales, North Somerset and Glouse...i remain scepticle

Indeed Rain rain rain, its trending well (as below)...i have a thirst for snow now, i want more! Although NAE doesnt seem keen as yet? 00Z: 12Z:

Portishead has 3-4 inches. will post a few piccies from my walk this morning in a bit! Working from home now, but the remote server is slow as!

Portishead marina looking stunning, really big flakes and coming down nicely! Got 3 hours kip, but might get up now.. Really decent ppn to the South and west, lets have a big dump, come on!!!