NorthNorfolkWeather
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Posts posted by NorthNorfolkWeather
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I'd like to add my thanks for concise accurate forecasts throughout your time on Netweather...
You will be missed, well done for keeping up with the technology, how much it's changed
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1 hour ago, TEITS said:
Nobody notice the fax for Tues chart!
Long time since I've been here, but what do I see in the T120 Fax?
Well the wind draw IS across the continent, but the 992 over Southern and Eastern England isobar comes from Italy, not from Siberia.
The 528 height is way up, just north of the border with Scotland, there is a long way to the 546 height line, but looking at that, I'd say Easterly winds, cool but not cold, showers (rain in the south possible sleet/snow in the north), mainly cloudy and pretty yuk weather for March
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7 minutes ago, abruzzi spur said:
Thanks for replying NNW, it's good to have an intelligent debate about these things, I really like to keep an
open mind amongst all the passion and drama, when it's clear that despite best intentions
so many folk get caught up in the emotion and potentially miss what's on their doorstep like
snow that sneaks up unexpectedly while you at out at
evensong or down the pub or at a book club or similar
reading about weather in my case, BTW NNW there are some very good books that feature snow in the plot and/or title but anyway back on a
serious note let's carry on with this tomorrow if you are around, have enjoyed it very much , it's what this place is all about.
Cheers AB, been an interesting chat, now time to head for the hills, just
realised the time and I have to be up at 6:00. So I look forward to tomorrows runs
and see if they keep up predicting what I think we all hope will be a prolonged cold spell.
Potential? Lots of it, but still way too many variables
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No AB I think you are wrong
until we get proper verification of what will happen this weekend, I don't think anything is set in stone
Tomorrow and the day after are vital, with an Easterly flow starting to pick up and forcing warmer air away
to our West, leaving probably only Ireland, Cornwall and Pembrokeshire in milder conditions. But it seems
every run varies so much that upgrade, downgrade, it seems to change every time, sometimes good, sometimes not
really doesn't matter very much one way or the other, the weather will do what it will, "Butterfly Effect" nayone?
Safe to say it will all play out with some being disappointed no matter what the outcome
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13 minutes ago, abruzzi spur said:
Not sure I'm obsessing TBH NNW
Uppers look volatile at the moment
Much water (hopefully frozen) to go under bridges until we can be sure
Pretending otherwise is unwise I think
Though this has the potential to be the most notable spell of the winter
Ice days are possible for some favoured locations
Even if the upper temps aren't great there's surface cold to think of.
Snow? Still to be determined.
Continental derived air is all well and good, but the factor I see as
of primary importance is the orientation of the low pressure systems
below the Scandi High. Too far west means that the winds source
below, south of Spain, meaning that no matter what the 850's are
lower atmosphere temperatrures will be higher than expected. Whatever is
expected is liable to change anyway, as the models are incredibly unreliable at
reporting what will happena at T180 let alone at T384. I think anyone looking beyond T180
seems to have a stronger belief in the models than I have-
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9 hours ago, Norfolk Sheep said:
Norfolk is such a depressing place to live in the summer. Even worse than winter! One distant rumble of thunder back in April (I think), and not a single convective cloud formation for months and months
Rained Saturday night and Sunday night, most of the day was threatening rain, but was dry.
11.3mm between 23:00 and midnight
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Got nothing here apart from a couple of light showers. Oh well....
May I refer you to all the comments this morning about the 'H' Word from Carol K?
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Humdinger
The Kirkwood curse could strike again
That said no need to feel disheartened just yet, it isn't even 7am yet. That said why am I awake when I have a 6pm-11pm shift to do later. The high cloud should burn away slowly, we will just need to get the sunshine and heat to break the cap over central areas. Again though all eyes should be to our south for further developments.
Well Captain, if the forecast is right you could be working while the whole thing moves through. Hope not, for your sake. Looks at though 20:00 and later in the Norfolk area
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Dry, bright this morning, cloudy this afternoon, but no rain.
Clear now and cool
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used to be good till the original regulars were displaced.
damp and cold here
Pretty cold and damp here as well -- both the weather and the forum.
Admitted I couldn't spend the time here I did last autumn/winter, but it was a great place to have chats -- until we were told we were off topic. The deception of adding a weather related comment to the end of a good chat wears thin after a while.
So people drift, bet many are still lurking, but why bother talking, weather is nondescript, any other topic appears to be taboo
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Can anyone answer what might be an obvious question? The Sun is a big nuclear reaction. It has shone for billions of years because it is a nuclear reactor and this doesn't use much fuel. However every 5 days on average there is a CME ( Coronal mass ejection). According to Wiki t he average mass is 1.6×1012kg of material ejected.
How can this be? I wouldn't know how to do the maths but why hasn't the Sun used up all of its mass many millions of years ago?
Brian.
Sorry Benny, haven't been on for a while.
Saw your question, I think my maths is right here,
The sun ( according to Wiki ) currently has a mass of approx 2X1030 if you take into account every CME (occuring at a rate of one every 5 days) throwing out 1.6X1012, that has, to date, only thrown out
0.00000000000000000000000000001% (that's 29X0) of the mass of the sun. It's a big so and so, but, for us at least just the right size to burn for another 4.5 billion years
Also add back the fact that altough a substantial mass is ejected, the majority of it doesn't leave the solar system and much is recaptured by the sun.
So we're OK for a while yet
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And a Merry Christmas to all. Echoing Jason T, been a while......
Too busy
Lovely day here, some cloud in the sky but temp above freezing.
Had a great view of the Space Station last night, lovely clear sky -- boy does it move
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I think it's all a matter of watch with care and hope it follows the ECM evolution.
Having seen the way Cromer was affected last year I'd prefer this not to happen, but nature will do what it wants
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That's a lot of lava
Better them than me flying over it
Good find John
Seems that Barda is going to keep us waiting, even though there have been some cracking quakes
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The story here
http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-30197085
on the BBC website caught my eye.
So this is the technique of "We'll try this even though it may kill millions"? From other previous studies the Indian Monsoon will be affected by higher temps, or lower temps or, as this year, was erratic because nothing was different!!
I'd like to hear if anyone else thinks that geo engineering is as stupid as I think it is
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If it was a month later, I'd be getting very excited. But, with SSTs as warm as they are at this time of year, the prospect of persistent rain and sleet, coupled to a nagging ENE wind, makes me err towards depression!
There speaks someone who lives near the east coast.
still an easterly would work, Gale Force 9 or stronger, would melt quickly once it dropped though
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http://www.visir.is/flugfarthegar-horfa-beint-ofan-i-eldspuandi-giginn/article/2014141109950
short video in link
----------------------------------------
holuhraun eruption reaches global scale
12:20 31. OKTÓBER 2014
MYND/MORTENRIISHUUS
Svavar Hávarðsson skrifar:
It's now clear that the Holuhraun eruption is the greatest eruption in Iceland in more than 230 years. This eruption some unique qualities when compared to other Icelandic eruptions through the ages - but also on a global scale.
Earlier this week scientists announced with certainty that the new still-growing lava field north of the Vatnajökull glacier, whom many want to be called Nornahraun (Witches's lavafield) is larger than any other lava field since the Laki eruption in 1783-1784 - an eruption that had greater and more dire consequences than most other eruptions in recorded history.
The lava field now covers 65 square kilometers and is still growing rapidly.FIVE ERUPTIONS IN THE AREA
Volcanologist Ãrmann Höskuldsson says that the eruption has kept a steady flow since Oct. 6th and that it is impossible to predict when it will stop. As has been stated before it is considered a given that another eruption will soon begin in the area, considering the constant activity in the area. It is now accepted that five eruptions have taken place in the area; two sub-glacial ones, two smaller eruptions north of Dyngjujökull and then the one that's currently in action.
"Although the lava flow has reduced somewhat, it's still over 100 square meters per second, which equals the Skjálfandi river during summer time. The flow was immense in the beginning and was triple its current volume," states Ãrmann and adds that the lava flow covered 20 square meters of land per second.
Ãrmann agrees that the eruption is of a historic scale, and adds that it made the history books in the first couple of weeks. "People tend to measure volcanic eruptions by the cubic meter volume that emerges from the volcano, but that's not a good scale of measurement. It's more about the speed of things. You can talk about big volume volcanoes that took decades or even centuries to accumulate. In this case we're getting an incredible amount in an almost absurdly short amount of time.
In terms of volume Holuhraun beat Fimmvörðuháls before noon on the first day, but the Fimmvörðuháls eruption lasted for two weeks. During the first week we realized that the Holuhraun eruption was something we'd never dealt with before." Ãrmann believes that the total volume of the lava field is now around a million cubic kilometers, but the Hekla eruption in 1947, which is often used as a comparison for large eruptions in Iceland, had a much lesser lava field volume. "It's surpassed everything that we know of."GAS REMAINS A RISK
The gas pollution from the caldera is currently the biggest concern, but in the beginning the force of the eruption and the thermal uptake was so great that the gas was launched high into the sky where no one noticed it. Later, as the force of the eruption diminished, the gas has lain over the land and been a nuisance.
There's no end in sight to this problem, in fact experts like Þorsteinn Jóhannsson at the Icelandic Environmental Agency are predicting the exact opposite - that the winter weather will escalate the problem, especially during the calm frost. "This problem will only get worse with time and it is unlikely that the eruption will grow in force and start kicking the gas to a higher altitude."ICELAND AND THE WORLD
Even when the Holuhraun eruption is compared to eruptions all over the world the facts remain the same. Ãrmann states "We'd have to go way back, there's a huge eruption in the Canary Islands during the middle of the 18th century that's probably larger than this one. So even on a global scale the Holuhraun eruption is making history. Simply put it's the biggest lava eruption Mankind has seen since the 18th century." FIREHEART
When asked further about the eruption, Ãrmann notes that the eruption has already lasted longer than both the Fimmvörðuháls and Eyjafjallajökull eruptions combined. Ãrmann also adds that the magma that's coming up is unusually hot; it's around 1200 C° which is around 200 C° greater than magma coming from other known eruptions.
"These facts support the theory that this is a tear from the fireheart itself, the hotspot under the country. This is coming straight from the mantle and up to the surface. This makes it very difficult to predict when the eruption will end.BÃRÃARBUNGA
But that's not all. Ãrmann mentions that Icelandic geologists have poured over every text and historic reference they know of, looking for examples of a series of events anything like that which the nation has been seeing in Bárðarbunga for the past couple of months.
"Bárðarbunga is a huge concern and we've never seen anything like this. The large amount of strong earthquakes, sometimes many a day, for days and weeks on end.
We've looked up every observed volcano, and this is unprecedented. That makes the big picture much harder to see, because we don't know what it all means," says Ãrmann who adds that the data that has been collected from the Holuhraun eruption will take several years to work through. No one can claim when that data gathering will end though, as the Holuhraun eruption is surely only the beginning of a far longer series of events in and around the Vatnajökull glacier.
http://www.visir.is/holuhraun-eruption-reaches-global-scale/article/2014141039805
fascinating
As you say fascinating. Interesting the higher temperatures on the lava. I wonder if this has changed the nature of the eruption and that the original deflation of the caldera has given way to a direct lava source from the mantle.
I still wonder about all the quakes in the caldera, what on earth is the effect there?
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The brighter the fire the more interesting the gas at the H vent.
Surely, the gas and the quakes signal a change?
Gradually the decompression of gasses allow melt to the mantle, just like gas welding or even soldering.
Things like surface tension tale on a whole new meaning with a gas axe...
Watcha Rusty nice to see you again.
The amount of gas this beast is belching is incredible. Just hope that it doesn't get worse
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http://icelandreview.com/news/2014/10/27/over-200-earthquakes-bardarbunga-over-weekend
quick link to read
and
Pollution Warning in Höfn: Keep Kids Inside By Eygló Svala Arnarsdóttir October 27, 2014 09:15The pollution in the East Fjords in early September. Photo: Zoë Robert.
The Civil Protection Department advises people living in and around Höfn, Southeast Iceland, to drive their children to school today and to keep the children inside during breaks because of extreme sulfur dioxide (SO2) pollution from the eruption in Holuhraun.
SO2 levels measured 1,200 mµ/m3 in Höfn this morning but between 4,200 and 6,600 mµ/m3 in the nearby rural areas Mýrar and Suðursveit. SO2 levels exceeded 21,000 mµ/m3 in the region yesterday. Inhabitants were advised to keep their windows closed during the night.
Continued eruption pollution is forecast in Southeast Iceland today, ruv.is reports.
“The model we use to monitor the gas distribution indicates that there will be pollution in that area on an off during the next 36 hours and [it will] move to the east late in the night,†stated director of the Civil Protection Department VÃðir Reynisson.
The website of the Environment Agency of Iceland reads that at SO2 levels higher than 2,000 mµ/m3 everyone may experience respiratory symptoms, especially individuals with underlying diseases.
Above 9,000 mµ/m3 the symptoms grow more severe and above 14,000 mµ/m3 the situation is considered to be hazardous.
Further information on the volcanic gases in English, including a link to a map showing pollution meters in different locations in Iceland are available on the agency’s website.
http://icelandreview.com/news/2014/10/27/pollution-warning-hofn-keep-kids-inside
not too good that
anyway, hi all cannot stop as off out but be back later
so almost 25% of those quakes were over M3. That's a high %
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M 4.8 - ICELAND - 2014-10-25 01:48:38 UTC
http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=405624
http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/seismologist.php
probably a 5,2
Give that man a prize.
After review......5.2
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In my opinion this is harmonic tremor at a mag 3/4 sort of level. Looks dangerous as hell.
K215.JPGWotcha Rusty,
It's a couple of months since this started, and we're still waiting for something to happen in the caldera.
Plenty happening around the eruption as well
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heres a full list of the over 3 quakes today
Friday24.10.2014 20:59:15 64.681 -17.459 9.0 km 3.5 99.0 5.6 km NE of Bárðarbunga Friday
24.10.2014 20:09:07 64.672 -17.454 7.7 km 3.5 99.0 5.0 km NE of Bárðarbunga Friday
24.10.2014 19:28:14 64.679 -17.424 9.3 km 3.5 99.0 6.5 km NE of Bárðarbunga Friday
24.10.2014 16:59:51 64.668 -17.458 3.8 km 3.2 99.0 4.5 km NE of Bárðarbunga Friday
24.10.2014 16:01:46 64.619 -17.403 9.0 km 3.2 99.0 6.4 km ESE of Bárðarbunga Friday
24.10.2014 14:54:34 64.673 -17.468 4.9 km 3.8 99.0 4.6 km NE of Bárðarbunga Friday
24.10.2014 13:58:05 64.668 -17.450 4.9 km 4.7 99.0 4.8 km NE of Bárðarbunga Friday
24.10.2014 13:38:23 64.669 -17.489 6.5 km 4.3 99.0 3.6 km NNE of Bárðarbunga Friday
24.10.2014 12:46:40 64.671 -17.446 9.0 km 3.4 99.0 5.2 km NE of Bárðarbunga Friday
24.10.2014 11:53:21 64.672 -17.458 6.7 km 4.2 99.0 4.9 km NE of Bárðarbunga Friday
24.10.2014 11:52:23 64.673 -17.463 8.2 km 3.8 99.0 4.8 km NE of Bárðarbunga Friday
24.10.2014 10:33:36 64.683 -17.430 10.3 km 3.8 99.0 6.6 km NE of Bárðarbunga Friday
24.10.2014 10:30:52 64.687 -17.445 10.1 km 3.8 99.0 6.5 km NE of Bárðarbunga Friday
24.10.2014 10:23:59 64.656 -17.379 2.9 km 5.0 99.0 7.3 km ENE of Bárðarbunga Friday
24.10.2014 10:23:14 64.675 -17.418 9.6 km 4.1 99.0 6.4 km NE of Bárðarbunga Friday
24.10.2014 10:20:41 64.676 -17.479 8.6 km 4.8 99.0 4.6 km NNE of Bárðarbunga Friday
24.10.2014 08:32:24 64.665 -17.400 1.4 km 3.4 99.0 6.7 km ENE of Bárðarbunga Friday
24.10.2014 08:30:37 64.676 -17.516 9.8 km 3.6 99.0 4.0 km N of Bárðarbunga Friday
24.10.2014 08:29:19 64.684 -17.443 9.6 km 3.5 99.0 6.3 km NE of Bárðarbunga Friday
24.10.2014 08:28:00 64.673 -17.404 3.0 km 3.6 99.0 6.9 km ENE of Bárðarbunga Friday
24.10.2014 08:22:11 64.674 -17.475 7.8 km 3.7 99.0 4.5 km NNE of Bárðarbunga Friday
24.10.2014 08:16:46 64.678 -17.431 9.7 km 3.5 99.0 6.2 km NE of Bárðarbunga Friday
24.10.2014 08:15:26 64.639 -17.530 9.5 km 3.6 99.0 0.2 km SW of Bárðarbunga Friday
24.10.2014 08:12:53 64.676 -17.462 8.5 km 3.5 99.0 5.1 km NE of Bárðarbunga Friday
24.10.2014 06:24:48 64.673 -17.498 8.6 km 3.6 99.0 3.9 km NNE of Bárðarbunga Friday
24.10.2014 06:09:53 64.677 -17.460 9.4 km 4.0 99.0 5.2 km NE of Bárðarbunga Friday
24.10.2014 06:07:48 64.687 -17.470 9.7 km 3.5 99.0 5.8 km NNE of Bárðarbunga Friday
24.10.2014 04:15:20 64.675 -17.396 1.6 km 3.9 99.0 7.3 km ENE of Bárðarbunga Friday
24.10.2014 04:04:09 64.684 -17.458 11.4 km 3.6 99.0 5.9 km NE of Bárðarbunga Friday
24.10.2014 03:00:04 64.673 -17.472 7.7 km 3.7 99.0 4.5 km NE of Bárðarbunga Friday
24.10.2014 02:43:57 64.676 -17.397 8.4 km 3.6 99.0 7.4 km ENE of Bárðarbunga Friday
24.10.2014 01:37:42 64.671 -17.466 8.4 km 3.9 99.0 4.5 km NE of Bárðarbunga Friday
24.10.2014 01:37:06 64.671 -17.413 7.6 km 3.6 99.0 6.4 km ENE of Bárðarbunga Friday
24.10.2014 01:34:07 64.683 -17.425 8.0 km 3.6 99.0 6.8 km NE of Bárðarbunga
34 which has really increased
http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/vatnajokull/#view=table
Just looked at http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/vatnajokull/
after a couple of days, what a difference, lots of banging and crashing going on
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Morning MIA,
I agree on both counts! I don't know why IMO is taking longer and longer to update the earthquakes. Is there less of an urgency to do it or luck of staff? Who knows...
I think it's turning into a "business as usual" for the IMO staff. Nothing out of the ordinary happening, so the urgency decreases.
It's fair enough, I expect they have had a deluge of work to cope with
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M5.3 in Bardarbunga! That's the largest earthquake in quite a while!
http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/
Karyo
Edit: now upgraded to 5.4!
Yep, just looked at the IMO website awful lot of quakes not at 99%.
What Weather Station Is This?
in Weather stations and equipment
Posted
Looks like an "Ecowitt" station, I've had one for about 4 months (different model to this one though). Seems much more accurate than my old easyweather station. Good display and the possibility of lots of add ons