NorthNorfolkWeather

Let me start this with a comment about my position on AGW. I remember the original idea of us heading back to an ice age proposed by Professor Lamb, back in the 1970's, at the time, I followed that and was amazed to see how quickly the idea went from a new ice age to AGW. At the time, between 1995 and about 2004, I thought AGW was a viable hypothesis, since that time I've decided that there is too much focus on the role of CO2, and not enough on the role of Methane and water vapour. I just wonder how much personal "Attachment" these scientists feel towards the idea of AGW. I also wonder whether in 50 or more years, when the current scientists are no longer on the scene, we'll be looking at the whole AGW saga as a bunch of scientists who took a political stance (that's political with a small 'p') on the role of CO2 within the atmosphere, perhaps just to contradict the orthodoxy of the day, Lamb's view that we were heading back to an ice age, that in turn was picked up by Politicians and used in Politics (with a big 'P') to change the way that populations behave. I actually think that we need to split the whole AGW, Climate Change and 'Green' agenda's into 3 separate parts. In reverse order I truly believe that the population of this planet would benefit from embracing a 'Greener' lifestyle, we should, where possible, consume less and therefore we would waste less. That is, or at least should be totally divorced from any Climate Change or AGW debate. It there is an impact on CC or AGW from a greener lifestyle it should be beneficial, but CC and AGW should not be used as the stick to beat people into a greener lifestyle. Climate Change, simple, it's always happened. Whether it's a long term slow process caused by mechanisms such as Continental drift, or whether there are step changes such as at the end of the last Ice Age, and the time following that when the Sahara and most of Northern Africa became a desert. We should take long term views on what mechanisms we understand and plan with them, not against them, but we should always be prepared for some variability. AGW. For me, this still has to be proved, and is getting more difficult of the scientific/political consensus to justify as temperatures are almost certainly on the decline globally. We have, IMO, about 5 years before we really start to see the effects of the lack of Sunspots in Solar Cycle 24, in that time, the net long wave radiative balance will decrease the temperature of the planet by a couple of degrees and the oceans will be seen to be colder as a result. Back on topic, although no one should condone the theft of the data from UEA, I find it incredible that long term climatic data can be declared as 'Commercially sensitive'. There are no companies that operate on financial strategies in excess of 50 years -- which is what climate data should be about -- so how can anyone claim commercial sensitivity? Perhaps in 50 years the AGW grouping will be seen as the equivalent to to Catholic church at the time of Galileo That's enough for now, Mod's if you think this shouldn't be here please feel free to move it

Hi CB, Glad to know there are some others that are as predictable as me !! I've been saying for years, to those that would listen, that it's the sun with it's spots, or lack of them that is a long term driver. It's amazing what the difference in the meaning of a sentence is when you change 'THE' to 'A'. Politics seems to over rule all.

Hi TWS, This would all have been avoided of course if the data was was freely available. I agree with you that it will not be "put to rest" anytime soon, but I think there's a fundamental flaw in your argument, Which sceptic group do you know of that has the power, in the context of the HADCrut data being one of just a very few datasets used by the IPCC, to heavily influence policies of not just our own government, but the governments and other agencies of all of the G20 and the EU. Most of these data that has been promoted by the IPCC over the last 10-15 years would, if they are implemented throw us back into the dark ages -- (literally, as I doubt if, even in the UK a 24x7 Electricity supply could be guarenteed). A good comparison is the difference open source software and closed source. Open source is peer reviewed by anyone who wants to review it, if a fault is found it can be analysed and corrected, closed source cannot really be investigated, only the results of faults can be displayed. If the peer review system has been distorted as these released mails tend to suggest, then it's akin to closed source, you can analyse unusual results -- cooling since 1999 -- but cannot compare with official results as a direct comparison with the models is impossible, they are closed off to the likes of you or I. As a final point, I'm old enough to remember Professor Hubert Lamb's original concern of cooling at the end of an interglacial and the subsequent takeover by scientists who believed the opposite. My POV is this "Climate Change" has always happened, "Global Warming", if it exists, must be divorced for the natural variations and produced on scientific merit. As an ex UEA student myself, I'm ashamed that my University has allowed itself to be dragged into a debate which they should not have even engaged in.

Wrong week obviously, that was best described as a 'Damp Squib', looks better further east. Had a gust of 8 (yes eight) mph. Safe to say we're well away from the storm

Hi Lewis, I have a similar problem, mainly, I think because my station is not optimally sited. I usually ignore the direction from the station, for that I go outside. Back on Topic, suddenly has got dark here and the NW radar says 'something wicked this way comes'

Further to your east near Cromer, we've got a back edge of clouds that looks like the backend of a cold front. Dark earlier, with very heavy cloud, but no wind that I'd call strong. You might find this site useful, http://www.xcweather.co.uk/GB/observations includes weather at Weybourne and Norwich

Hi Lewis, I happen to live in EA and I get narked about those that live down south that have all the lovely storms in summer. All we need now is for someone down south to complain about all the storms that the North of Scotland usually have and we'll complete the circle. I think the reality is that us Shandy swigging Southern Softies haven't had a good storm since January 2007, THAT's why we're getting excited about it. Perhaps you can appreciate that it's been a long time coming

Sorry, but I see too much of a difference between the Unisys and NOAA chart. If you look at the eastern end, the Unisys chart shows an amomoly of about 1.5C the NOAA cart is 2.5C, that's quite a difference in a day, are they using different data sets, Different averages or something else?? seems the pool off Labrador is cold, and the main heat is concentrated towards the Canaries. So, from my perspective,no, I don't think we are

Wow, that's taken me well over 30 minutes to read, re-read and attempt to understand. A fantastic, well balanced piece of work, full of (explained) Three Letter Acronyms (TLA's), which, in my reading of it suggests that we could have a winter that COULD be brilliant, but it is also so finely balanced. We may find that everywhere just the other side of the North Sea is well and truly frozen while we have just moderate cold. Thanks, appreciated, I look forward to the updates

Thanks Ch, That'll keep me busy for a while. I find this whole site amazing, a level of knowledge and resources that is fantastic. I think we are all lucky that the internet allows the sharing of such knowledge in a way that even 20 years ago was impossible. And what it shows me is that the more we know, the less we understand.

JH, If you are a numpty, God help the rest of us. A question regarding linkage. In the post by Ch it shows that a warmer stratosphere tends to equate to weaker Trade winds, does this then help increase the strength of an El Nino, as I've seen some reports that weaker trades has a linkage to stronger El Nino's. Does this mean that this is another example of a system that has feedback systems that we don't quite understand yet. And before anyone asks, it's not a Climate thing, just trying to see linkages

Latest reports seem to suggest that trees grow better when we have lots of Glactic Cosmic Rays hitting them, at solar minima, so we now have another variable in the mix I'll find the link to the latest tree ring info as soon as I can WHOOPS, that's what happens when you only read the end of the thread sorry for wasting space.

Hi All, Just feel a bit stupid here, but the SST table has be totally confused. this is an example of the table Resort SST 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 Gt Yarmouth 15.2°C 11.6°C 11.6°C 11.6°C 11.6°C 11.6°C 11.6°C 11.6°C 11.6°C 11.6°C 11.6°C 11.6°C 11.6°C 11.6°C 11.6°C I assume the SST figure of 15.2 is the current temp, but what are all the other, constant, 11.6C and what is the significance of the 03, 06 etc? Sorry if it's been explained elsewhere, I have looked, but couldn't find an explanation arghh , loses formatting

As other posters have said, it will be interesting to see what the final figure in March is. At the same time, due to the rebound of the last 2 years, multi year ice is on the rebound.

Mainly Cloudy here today, a couple of very light showers, nothing recorded on the gauge. Temp now still at 8.5C

Very good, excellent new look, (I'm really good at ignoring the ads).

murky, mild and miserable without the alliteration, low cloud, light drizzle and 10.3C

Well, North Norfolk is a microcosm of East Anglia, we had one storm in August that delivered a stonking 1.6 inches in about 2 hours, other than that August was pretty much dry apart from some drizzle. I live just on the south side of the Cromer ridge, the Terminal moraine of the ice sheet from the last Ice Age, thankfully the underground water is holding up well, and even in real drought years we've rarely had a hosepipe ban here. But the grass is, as others have commented, pretty brown, but our sunflowers are between 10 and 12 ft high, will post the photo when I get chance

After a wonderful day, unbroken sunshine from around 08:00 to sunset, the temperature is now dropping like a stone. High today 19.6 Current (19:30) 8.6 At 17:00 was 17C, so dropped by 8.4C in 2.5 hours. Could be cool tonight.

UHI or not, I work in London and live in the country, if I could work in my area I would, London is just TOO busy. Wait till you come to Norfolk, watch the sense of humour, dry is an understatement, great bunch of people, I went to UEA 74-77, never left Norfolk since

Still clear here, but some cloud in teh distance to the South. Temp down to 16.4 Humidity 82% and Dewpoint at 13.3. Feels very muggy, but I think I'm about 30 miles too far North for anything, let alone a storm

Never fear MW, I normally work away from home and the storms that happen in Norfolk usually happen when I'm away, so unless your storm shield and mine combine to destroy all storms in South East England and East Anglia (wouldn't that make us popular here), you should have something at least. O/T what are you studying at UEA?

Hi TP, Seems the best place to get info on Chaitan is the blog here, interesting that within the piece it shows that it's still Red Alert down there, with that fact that it's come active after 9,000 years tends to suggest that it could be quite a large eruption, mainly due to the speed of growth of the dome.

Does anyone who looks at this, or other threads in the forum have any idea what effect the plume set off by Shiveluch have on the northern hemisphere weather? I only asked because I saw this photo on Spaceweather.com. It's a sunrise, not a sunset and it looks mighty red to me. Suggests lots of aerosols have already spread to Nebraska, but the date of the photo suggests they are not Shiveluch's aerosols. I know there were other eruptions during the summer, I assume the aerosols are from those

Since investing in a wireless weather station, I've been surprised how constatnt my indoor temperat5ure is, rarely deviating by more than 2C either side of 19C. But 17C at 06:00 feels cold after getting out of the bath!!