NorthNorfolkWeather

Thanks John, Interesting how this NW/SE split is so persistent this year, in my neck of the woods we need the rain, as has been attested to on other topics, so roll on Autumn

Don't worry, we'll have a couple of air Frosts either late November or early december. That will whip the media up into their usual pre Christmas frenzy as to us having a white Christmas. personally, the odds, I think, are very much against it for anyone South of teh Scottish border. John, I think in this case IF=FI

Hi Wales 120398, I originally come from Merthyr, one of my enduring memories of the winter is seing the snow line on the mountain on the other side of the valley, always thought it amazing that it seemed to cut off at that line. Having done predictions for all of UK, my Predictions for where I live (North Norfolk) are First Ground Frost October 18th First Snowfall January 08th (we are rubbish at snow, too close to the North Sea, a good Easterly Gale helps, as in Jan 1987, when we had drifts of 4-5 feet and I ploughed into one in my car) First night below 0C December 17th

Ground Frost 26th September First Snow -- On Scottish hills, 4th September First Sub Zero night 28th September I'm usually totally wrong with these

I had a couple of nights under 10C, one of them dropped to 7.9 middle of last week, was a lovely morning, nice and cool totally clear. The only other comment is I'm not sure how accurate the thermometer is, seems to read high during the day, so may read low at night

already at 20.0, sun just appeared from misty low cloud feels very muggy

let's see. Total guess 13.4

Looking at the radar, your turn will come in about 30 mins sorry, no time to add a radar pic

Ever the optimist :-) but you could be right, as that's the day after I go back to work

That's an understatement, Thursday looks very poor, everything seems to have been shunted eastwards. there's some very impressive CAPE in France and the low countries

OT I know, but Red Arrows (hopefully in a brilliant blue sky) tomorrow at 11:30. Back on topic, I think we've been let down a few times by the local forecast, but I will admit I wasn't about for some of the thundery Thursdays on July. Interesting that again it's progged fro a Thursday, seems to be repeating on a 7 day theme or a harmonic of 7 days

Wednesday had better be quiet, in fact I'm pretty certain it will just be hot, as the Cromer carnival is on, with the Red Arrows performing over the sea at 11:30 (great views from the cliff top). I have my doubts as to whether we'll actually get anything, if we do, it will be late Thursday/early Friday when a camera and tripod may bag you something. The Cape numbers suggest that something could happen, but most models seem to suggest it will slide south west to north east along a diagonal quite a bit further west than Norfolk

Back in North Norfolk, Some rain on the M25, now at home, swelteringly humid, but no rain, no nothing

In West London, just started to get some clouds blocking the sun. had a milky sky earlier and feels very oppressive. Traveling back to Norfolk later this afternoon, for once I hope I avoid the storms. Most of the stuff at the moment seems to be to the west of here, hope I can beat what's coming out of France, the 850 wind direction seems to be pushing them towards East Anglia

If you want to see what the forecasters are saying, you can always look here El_Nino Forecast to me, the most interesting piece is Model forecasts of SST anomalies for the Niño-3.4 region (Fig. 5) reflect a growing consensus for the continued development of El Niño (+0.5°C or greater in the Niño-3.4 region). However, the spread of the models indicates disagreement over the eventual strength of El Niño (+0.5°C to +2.0°C). It takes a temperature anomaly of 0.5C before it is declared an El Nino, so a spread from 0.5-2.0C anomoly is a huge variance between the models. Also there are some very unusual patterns in the pacific anomalies at the moment, see here Which means that, in reality, the scientists don't know, so why print the article

Just what sort of comment is this?? Professor Chris Folland, of the Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, said: "We are likely to see more global warming than we have seen in the past few years, which have been rather cool. In fact, we are already seeing it." Does this mean the Prof Folland accepts that Global Warming hasn't been happening for the "past few years"? Why then does he follow it with "In fact we are already seeing it". To me "likely to" means that there is the possibility of something, to follow that with "already seeing it" means either the first or the second statement is wrong.

Arghhh, another TLA I don't know (or my brain has seized up) what's QBO?

the point I find most interesting is that Hathaway et al. at NASA were prdicting a slowdown in Cycle 25, so for the number of sunspots to fall off a cliff so soon shows that because a model can be regressed to fit what happened doesn't mean that it can then be used to predict the future. In the NY Times a few days ago, Hathaway admitted we may be heading for a Dalton Minimum or similar, that will at least give scientists a chance to see what effect a quiet sun really has. Observations so far seem to suggest that although visible and Infra red wavelength output from the sun has changed by a fraction of a percent downwards, extreme UV has dropped by 8%, therefore the atmosphere around the earth is a little less excited, and therefore there is less drag on satellites in low orbit as there are less air molecules at those heights. Both the Dalton and Maunder minima had a fairly harsh effect on Europe, not forgetting that Continental US was seem as a frozen and inhospitable land in the 17th Century. Radio flux from the sun is on an upward trend, so would tend to suggest that we are at least in cycle 24, perhaps we out to take bets on what the sunspot number will peak at, My bet would be between 35 and 40, which is much lower than Hathaway's 90

Would be good if they headed in this direction, It looked a disticnt possibility that we'd have something big, wasn't to be, collapsed to just 3mm of rain and now the sun's out!! And I'm just 14 miles North of Norwich as the crow flies. Typical showers

Seems to be the usual story of showers developing later than forecast. Now cloudy here, but no sign of lowering skies yet. Slightly dark to the south west, so here's hoping Actually, looking at the 850 Wind Vectors I wouldn't be surprised to see that heavy rain approaching Norwich slip just east of the city. With any luck, what's happening just south of Marham should track right over me. Cape now up over 750 according to the radar

Hopefully a good day to come On the wider picture, looks very positive upstream Looking at the radar, looking quite good for later, the 850 winds will pick up some good convection.

Pretty much the same up here, some nice looking clouds, not much else CAPE's going up, 720 over much of Norfolk from the latest radar

Looks like it's running just east of me again, time for the car and the camera I think. North Walsham and Bacton here I come

Just east of me, but close enough to have a few CC's with less than 5 seconds gap before the thunder. Amazing, had to nip to the Village shop (just over a quarter of a mile from home, rain was much more intense, just goes to show a small distance can make all the difference

Starting to look fruity in Norfolk