NorthNorfolkWeather

try this see the post but one above

A couple of points. First, it looks b^&**y cold next week, especially in Copenhagen (plug for the competion in the World General Discussion Forum) But Lake Effect Snow could be a problem in many eastern areas from late Monday onwards Secondly, From the (late FI) what are the chances of a Polar Low from this? As I understand them they are convective mesoscale systems. This cold is happening early, North Sea is VERY warm compared to the 'normal' time we'd get this. Whoops sorry ramping Arghh where's the piccy? Answer next post but one down It's supposed to be the T+384 GFS 850's +SLP

It's the Pub run, had a few too many tonight I think.

Thanks, a liitle light reading then

Depends where you are and your profile doesn't say. Down in Southern England, it wil feel chiily due to the wind, but I'd expect daytime temps to be around 4C Nights will depend on cloud cover -- no cloud and it will be cold, but not as cold if there was no wind. Mods, should this be moved to the Cold Spell thread?

Bingo, with that reasonably slow flow, and those uppers, may get something overnight on Sunday

Hi PP, I think that the lag is already about 5 years since we had any great number of sunspots and the Solar Wind has been dropping throughout that time. So this could be the 'start' of the effects of the lag

Hi GP (and all the other experts) AAquestion about the effect of the deep solar minimum and it's possible effect on the Stratosphere. As I understand it, due to the low solar wind as part of the slumber that the sun is in, our atmosphere is actually thinner than is is at solar max, or even when the solar wind is 'faster' and more energetic than it is now. Firstly, is there a measurable difference now in the 30mb height at the Poles compared to say 2003/2004 when the sun was active? secondly same question for the tropics? thirdly are there any known teleconnections between any height differences om the first two questions? I understan also that, also due to the low power level of the solar wind we have a incidence of Galactic Cosmic rays, is there any known effect that this increase in very high GCR's other than there may be an increase in cloud cover and therefore also an increase in the albedo I hope they are sensible questions

Hi Leroy, From my (limited) knowledge, anything is possible, but I think the odds would have to be stacked heavily against it. If you look at the models, even now they are forecasting a 'green' christmas for most of us, not a white one, but there are some real expets on this forum, Glacier Point, John Holmes and loads of others. From Glacier Point's post earlier on, we may have reload of wintry conditions, but the UK is more often than not a battleground, and often the mild Atlantic wins. But historically, January and February are the coldest months and to get the sort of cold currently being forecast is unusual, if not unprecedented. The best thing I find about this forum is that you can ask as many questions as you like ( as long as they are reasonable sensible)

and, just the one entry to my own competition -3.2C

next Tuesday looks very interesting, that's starting to get cold, OK in reality I suppose it's FI, but there are some wonderful heights over Svarlbard http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-0-180.png?12

The strength of any Easterly or North Easterly that develops will determine what happens this close to the coast, January 1987 is a great example of a good blow from the East, bitter coming off the continent, picking up just enough moisture crossing the North Sea to drop a level 20 cm's of snow, but the wind was enough to push drifts up to 8 ft in places. Also I think it was 1982 where we ostensibly had a cold HP with gentle North Easterlies. The Coastal strip had up to 25cm lying snow, but ten miles inland virtually nothing. So where do we go from here? For the period before Christmas, if we keep shortwaves out of the picture in the short term, it's obviously going to cool. Don't think there'll be much snow to start with at least. Then we hit the shortwave possibility, if one tracks towards Iceland, is blocked and comes down the North Sea, or even better passes over Copenhagen on the 18th, it's likely to drag much colder, -15 uppers behind it. What happens then is conjecture, but it the block maintains we could be in for one of the scenarios that TEITS has spoken about, a Greenland/ Scandi high that swops us between Easterlies and Northerlies. But, we shall see

Yep. I agree completely that T96 is where FI really is at the moment. All the charts I've seen still suggest that we only have a 30-40% chance of this happening. That being the case, I'll ramp and whinge in the relevant threads. But on the good side, it looks like it's only 2 more days of rain

Firstly, Mod's if you think this is in the wrong place please move it. I've put it hear as it's a winter temperature we're looking for OK, let's have a laugh. We have the Climate Conference at Copenhagen for the next 2 weeks, let's guess the MAXIMUM temperature that the world's leaders will face on the last day of the conference the 18th December(which for many is the only day they are actually there). Last time and date for entries is 17:00 16th December Please give a temperature to 1 decimal place (i.e. 2.3) in Celcius. Any one who can post is allowed a maximum of 1 entry per day The way I will mark it is correct temperature 100 +/- 0.2C 90 +/- 0.4C 80 +/- 0.6C 70 +/- 0.8C 60 +/- 1.0C 50 +/- 1.2C 40 +/- 1.4C 30 +/- 1.6C 20 +/- 1.8C 10 Any entry that gets points in the above scheme will then have points added as follows. All entries on the last day up to the end of the competition are treated as the 17th, otherwise each day runs midnight to 23:59:59 An entry on the 17th gets the points with no change An entry on the 16th gets the points multiplied by 1.05 An entry on the 15th gets the points multiplied by 1.10 An entry on the 14th gets the points multiplied by 1.20 An entry on the 13th gets the points multiplied by 1.30 An entry on the 12th gets the points multiplied by 1.40 An entry on the 11th gets the points multiplied by 1.55 An entry on the 10th gets the points multiplied by 1.65 An entry on the 09th gets the points multiplied by 1.75 An entry on the 08th gets the points multiplied by 1.80 An entry today gets the points multiplied by 2.00 If anyone thinks I've done something wrong in calculating this etc let me know

Depends on how accurate the Paralell run is. You could be whining for a different reason if this http://images.meteociel.fr/im/2937/gfs-0-384_kkm7.png comes off

You are right, just tried all sorts of things. When does your term end? If you aren't quick you could be snowed in!! I can't imagine a Norfolk Terrace Room with snowdrifts outside. When I was at UEA ( a long time ago) we had one winter that was so cold the broad froze end to end. Odds on it this year? low probably

Before I say something about the models, can someone point me to some info on 'Short Waves'? Looking at the panel maps put up earlier, there are a few cold ensemble members in there, but there are also quite a lot that are pretty average. From that run of ensembles, I'd say that it's only 30-40% chance of really cold weather getting further than the south east within a reliable timeframe

Ian, I agree with what you say there. I've been looking at the far FI sections of the GFS and GFS Parallel, both seem to prog a shortish burst of cold, followed by a breakdown to westerlies, but I think all the models are struggling to understand what effect the warm Stratosphere has, both with the Polar Vortex and the El Nino. I think we could see a huge amount of chopping and changing on the charts down to quite small timescales, and would not ne at all surprised if FI came as low as T+72 for some of the development and chances of snow or rain. Most of the ensembles don't seem to hang together after about T+96, so I suppose FI currently starts between T+96 and T+108

How can the operational be an outlier from almost beginning to end? Methinks there's something not quite right about the data input damn, beaten to it by a Kumquat

Comparing the Current and Parallel runs, they are miles apart. Will be interesting how they 'splice them' if the 15th is the cut over date and the outputs are opposite ends of the warmth spectrum. -10 uppers compared to +3 uppers is a significant difference

I agree completely. Having been on the boards for about a year, there are people, who, if they post, I know will be informative and others that are not. But that's part of the fun even though some people make me feel It's a debate, keep it that way

Great comment, I'll try to keep it in mind :-) You are spot on, downgrades all the way if we are not careful

I had a few hours without looking at this thread and it's just provided me with the best laugh I've had for a while. :lol: Ian, apart from your use of the word modern, I think you speak a lot of sense. I think it's great that the people on here have a sense of humour that gently takes the mickey without being nasty Thanks all Back on track for a moment, does someone have a link for the GFS Paralell run output? I thought I saw it a few days ago, but don't seem to be able to find it

without reading all the other replies to this thread first NO I do not. Any era, in my opinion should be a minimum of 50 years if we are talking weather, probably 100 years would be better, but as we, in reality have a paucity of records with the exception of the CET if we go back more than a 150 years, I can understand an objection to 100 years, but 20 years to describe and era? NO, No, No

It's feeling quite strange here, virtually no wind, strips of blue sky between heavy dark clouds. Temperature up at 5.6C Had quite a lot of rain last night, but also a power cut, and my computer that records the weather station is beggered :-( Laptop and Broadband is OK though :-)