Mr Frost
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Posts posted by Mr Frost
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People harping on here about no cold here and no cold there!
I have had a permanent ground frost day and night for 6 days now! And a snowfall last night that is still on the ground.
Maybe people should say what area they are referring to when discussing what they see in the models? Rather than self back slapping about no deep cold for 10/14 days away or whatever. It gets rather tedious to say the least.
If you think the current charts are poor I suggest you move to Lapland for a daily fix of snow.
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I know this is not model related but i would like to say thank you for your fantastic updates regarding the current snowfall here in Scotland. About 2cm currently on the ground and still going strong. I am 15 miles south east of Glasgow so earlier comments of accumulations look spot on!
Now seen all the snow progs from EC, MOGREPS-15 & UK4 (extended) for Thursday. Looks bothersome for parts of northern UK; nothing too worrying in south (patchy trace signal in all models with exception of parts of Wales and insignificant amounts within a broad rain event elsewhere, e.g. to around 1cm over some uplands such as to Cotswolds, Exmoor etc). Weekend v v tricky.
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Yes, I almost gave up earlier!!! Snow settling nicely now!
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Hi, where can I find this update as it appears the same information as earlier on the Met Office website?
Hi, the latest update for my location on the Met Office website has changed to sleet. It had been showing heavy snow up until 19:00. I am over 100 meters.
Also the temperature is rising as the front is closing in.
Don't take this is as gospel though, it is so marginal! It could go either way!!!
Squeaky bum time.
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Let's be clear, we are a long way from firming up on a proper cold snowy spell at the moment. The real cold charts are well out into FI and there is significant uncertainty and volatility in the OP runs and ensembles even at shortish-medium range. Just so people don't get thinking we're nailed on for a big freeze like the last time. At the moment it's potential, potential I hope comes true. But there are huge range of possible outcomes at the moment. When we get OP and ensemble agreement at say +120 / +144 then it's time to get a bit more excited.
Looking through the ensembles there's a huge variety of options shown, not all of them good.
One them though that's interesting is that Wedneday/Thursday low, a lot of the ensemble runs give a possible significant now event if it comes off just right.
i.e.
(a few more too)
One to keep an eye on.
Not too far away either.
I think as this is a UK weather forum I will just add in that IMBY I have had a permanent ground frost day/night from Tuesday morning. Heavy snow forecast for tonight lasting well into the early morning period.
Real cold charts have happened this week, quite a potent cold spell indeed. (Even for Scotland at this time of year)
Still no sign in the foreseeable for anything mild IMBY.
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Seen the news earlier and read the live updates.
Hope everyone is okay, awful for those who have been affected by the flooding.
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ECM Ensembles arent incredibly bad.
50-60% hold the low back at T144hrs
30-40% hold us in a cold/very cold flow at T168hrs
Yes, you get the feeling that if the Ensembles above go to a weather models related swingers party tonight they would have a go with the GFS, UKMO, JMA, NOGAPS, GEM, GME, BOM but of course leave the CFS to sort themselves out.
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I think everyone just needs to relax a bit...
In a way it is good for learning when some models suddenly flip to a completely different outcome, questions are then asked. However, the only downside is people get really depressed and then post knee jerk responses and this is down to their own bias of weather. It is only natural to feel elated or despondent but maybe rather than posting they could hang back, wait for the run to finish and then explain why they think it is good or bad? It would cut out all the unnecessary sniping,
Let's all respect each other's posts, we are all here for the same reason and that is we are all obsessed with different types of weather! Whether mild, cold, rain or sunshine be your thing, each to their own. But let's keep it friendly!
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Ian if you really believe this then that is fine you are perfectly entitled to your opinion. However I would like some 'meat' so to speak to show your theory is sound, charts or more explanation please?
Great post John.
Ian, we all know you are an extremely intelligent guy and can read the charts as good as anyone on this forum and beyond so please don't revert back to using nonsense like game over and what not. I actually enjoy having you around, it takes me back to when I was a younger lad on the BBC weather forum! You are a pantomime villain but when you are honest and not looking to stir many folk learn from you're posts.
Don't let yourself down!
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Yes, it looks like a bit of a battle between GFS/UKMO and the ECM/minor models.
Even I feel a bit deflated after that 120/144 ECM chart. Not to worry though, HOPEFULLY from a snow lover point of view the ECM is having a wobble in the mid frames.
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Another thing to add is IF there is a snow event next weekend within the UK then expect the snow to still be on the ground a week later going by the temperature profiles. This will also aid marginal snow events as we will have developed our own cold pool as each day passes.
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I really do wish the GFS would only release 2 updates per day. It seems they just chuck out 4 a day for the hell of it!
Does anyone know why there are 4 per day?
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Good afternoon everyone!
Hope everyone is well and enjoying their weekend!
Some very seasonal charts around at the moment, really is looking like a fantastic start to winter!
Obviously the North/North East/East is always the best place to be but with little troughs popping up and the North sea snow machine (surprises in store - now time radar/lampost watching) then I am sure many will not be disappointed.
This coming week the day's just get colder and colder, sharp frosts later in the week! Bliss!
Then snow chances increase from next weekend.
We have been really spoiled by the weather gods the past few years! Long may it continue!
Wherever in Scotland you are from, enjoy!
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Some of us are just trying to be positive instead of trying to find things that could stop it from happening, evidence is mounting for a good cold spell, maybe an excellent cold spell.
No cold delay IMBY. Struggling to reach 2 degrees during the day from Wednesday onwards.
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Even if the ECM correctly guesses the amount of energy crossing the Atlantic ( which I supect it hasn't), any run that ends with a Svalbard 1035mb high with increased heights is no bad run ( and is certainly not zonal and leaves the window still very much open).
And this should be remembered when the usual doom mongerers wake up and view the charts.....
And so it begins - as expected.
Nothing has changed for me, still as promising as ever and with the thoughts of the more experienced members regarding the blocking pattern and also the Met office charts and updates not flinching at all...I for one will continue to enjoy the outlook and not continue to search for a breakdown beyond the realms of fantasy island at every given opportunity. I will look forward to some very cold temperatures, frost and a bit of snow. (That there is no doubt)
Stay positive everyone, there is nothing to worry about.
Bitter up here from tomorrow onwards.
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Who's taking any run as Gospel?
It is the same 4 or 5 members who continue to be depressed about each GFS, hence why people never learn.
It is the glass half empty approach that really grates on people. The charts are rare for the end of November, pretty special indeed.
However, certain people keep looking for a breakdown at every opportunity. I do respect everyone's opinion but when it is blatant nonsense it does become tiresome. 95% of the experienced members of this forum have gone into great detail of the forthcoming trend/Northern blocking. (GP, Steve Murr, Lorenzo, Chio and Phil just to name a few)
It looks promising from next weekend and the first stage is to get the cold in, no-one can predict snow chances 2 days in advance never mind a week away.
I really wish certain people could be a little bit more positive about the outlook, especially when all the signs are looking exceptional. I would understand if there was a raging Bartlett or signs of the Atlantic roaring in but there is NOT. So let's see it how it really is. Looking for a breakdown for 384 hours onwards is about as much use as an inflatable dartboard for new members reading this thread.
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The thing I can't get my head around on here is the amount of 'blind faith' people seem to be exuding. At times the weather makes mockery of even seasoned forecasters and there is no guarantee or certainty of any outcome. Even if something is highly probable, it's still not certain. the GFS 12z remains a plausible solution and IMO people are being foolish consigning it to the 'bin' or 'shredder' (two phrases which are really starting to grind my gears just lately).
I'm trying to provide a balance to some of the more exuberant posts on here over the past few days!
To be fair you seem to swing back and forth more the models. Relax.
A balance? You were calling the zonal express to be arriving shortly on the winter thread 10 days ago. As a wise old man say's (Sorry John) don't get hung up on every run, look for the trends. You are constantly swinging from positive to negative with every GFS run.
Enjoy the ride!
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I can't actually believe that some people are whining about these glorious charts!
It looks a fantastic start to Winter, very seasonal!
Enjoy the ride, it could be so much worse!
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No its not though, its not even cold enough to generate much PPN as one the cold uppers are not cold enough and instability wise is not the best either(thicknesses look too high for the most part), too me that 216 hour chart will have a weather front near East Anglia delivering a cold raw wet day = horrible!
Set up wise, then yes ECM has more potential than the GFS and perhaps more signs leaning towards a more blocked set up.
Geordiesnow If we ended up with a raging Notherly, North Easterly then Easterly you still would not be happy.
Cheer up, it is only the weather. :-)
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Just to illustrate how different folk see the same model for the same time and give a different view of it?
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Worst run for retrogression or any hlb for a while.....Pattern is flattened and maybe the Vortex is just too strong for any retrogression to take place.................Im still thinking all models are struggling with patterns around 27th Nov to Dec 1st and subsequently all runs right now are completely different......Suspect T144 UKMO time to get involved....
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A very tasty Scandy high setting up at 240hrs.
Steve M will be pleased though I have to wonder where does this leave GP's thoughts as he was pretty adament that height rises would be over Greenland / Iceland.
Still ECM screams of potential
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ECM finishes with a rather intense vortex over Greenland helping create some mega depressions.
http://www.meteociel...map=1&archive=0
Still chilly over the UK in more benign conditions, just not the elusive col
How about a vote on which is nearer the mark!
I am not getting at any of the 3 shown here just showing how different folk come to differing solutions from the same run and validity time.
Is that not the beauty of discussing though? If we all said the same thing this thread would be about as much use as a cat flap on a submarine. I respect everyone's opinion and thoughts. It adds to the rollercoaster of daily model viewing.
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Perhaps it might be best to discuss what the models are showing rather than what might happen if there was a hypothetical T+264 chart on the ECM?
At the end of the day the T+240 chart has little chance of coming to fruition, never mind anything after that! Neither viewpoint is 'wrong' as anything at that range is so far-fetched either solution could be correct (or indeed both incorrect).
Is this not the Model Output Discussion thread? He is talking about charts that the models show and explaining what might happen afterwards. It helps people like myself learn and many others I am sure.
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Lol...I was just wondering why so many people were biting on the words of "experienced"poster of 16 posts!
Loved the 300+ timeframe 18z from the GFS last night. Eye candy but "unrealistic". I was wondering if anyone could post up a picture of how "unrealistic" a picture the 18z was painting us for what the weather is now from 300 hours ago?
Because the poster is Ian Brown. He has been banned from most weather sites in the past for his constant trolling. Terry Michael Wood = The you know what His sig - These Movember whiskers = You know what. It is getting old already Ian. You are an intelligent guy, post you're real thoughts rather than spouting nonsense.
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Is that statement really true, some folk not long ago were using the CFS output to show a cold December?
John I stated the same point earlier but my post was deleted for some reason...
It was also showing a potent cold spell for the last 2 weeks of November only 10 days ago.
CFS changes its outlook on a weekly basis!
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This is all becoming a bit like the tv show Man vs Food, except our weather equivalent is Steve Murr vs Weather charts.
Again, hats off to Steve for spotting yet another trend. (Yes I know it is only 1 run ect but along with GP's thoughts earlier the cold brigade have much to look forward to in the coming weeks)
Scotland Regional Discussion
in Regional
Posted
You do get the impression that certain people who post in the MT have no clue sometimes. Saying cold is 14 days away and how for the past week we have been seeing great eye candy charts in fi but nothing has happened!?
Pretty much everyone in this thread has been enjoying a late Autumn/early Winter wonderland. Frosts, ice and snow for a good number of days and below average temperatures continuing for the foreseeable with a high chance of something special brewing from mid month.
I do respect the posts that everyone makes but when it is total Betty Swollocks it does grate on you a bit.
And I must say, absolutely stunning pictures posted in this thread recently.