JamesL
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Posts posted by JamesL
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Our time will come. Once we get this storm out of the way, next week looks very promising for us in the SE (infact better than anywhere else). With high pressure building north and west and height rises in the mid Atlantic, the N winds will prevail and then turn more NE by the end of the week.
The GFS Ens back this evolution up after a massive turnaround over the last 3-4 days. It certainly looks cold to mid month at least then its all up for grabs.
I am as fustrated as you with this current spell, however its all about to change and the balanced will be redressed.
James
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Update.
Here in Iwade its started snowing, lightly but all falkes and no slop.
James
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Thanks Steve.
Its started raining here in Iwade now and temp still dropping. My guess is that the N Downs SE of London will do well as will the high Weald as this keeps slipping ESE wards. Be nice to see a few flakes here though to save me from driving up to above Detling
James
ps I know we are discussing tonight here but do we feel that monday into tuesday holds a little hope? I see the MetO have put out some early warnings for the far south of our region. My feelings are that it wont make it here at all and scurry off into France.
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Good to see you back in the room Mr Murr
The precip is definately moving up from the SW towards the SE now and actually intensifying somewhat to the NW as well.
Perhaps you could tell me Steve where exactly the low pressure is sitting right now my guess would be just to the west of the precip?
Is its track meant to be into N France or is is set to cross the extreme SE tip?
It could definately be an interesting evening here. Temp has dropped by 0.6 to 2c in just 50 mins.
James
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Could somebody post the link for dew points and temps in the SE. Meto just has temp.
I am getting excited about this event. IMO it will be a bit of a non starter for me but those a little further west and north I think it could actually get more serious.
The local BBC weather said that tonight will be mainly rain here in Kent but the north and west of the region could see some wet stuff by morning, then as the day wears on it will increasingly turn to snow as we get the 'right side' of the occlusion.
She mentioned another 5-10cms over the North Downs.....NICE.
Many thanks
James
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Looks like the 2005 event could be a SE event this time
Lots more twists and turns. Looks like Kent will miss the main thrust in the morning but could do well as it retreats later on in the day and the cold air digs in and undercuts. So home counties looking for another top up. Greedy beggers.
James
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Well the latest guidance takes the precip a little further north and it may take a while during the day for the colder air to undercut the far se to change the rain to snow. I think we'll have to wait till this evening to find out exactly which areas are going to be in the highest risk.
As ever Nick a constantly changing and fascinating 24-36 hours coming up.
I will keep everyone updated as to events from my corner of Kent.
Current weather 5.5c and rain.......Proper winter weather!!!
James
Warnings now out. 10cms widely and locally up to 20cms. Yet another BIG event for the SE.
J
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A wildcard possibility is that we get a situation later tonight and through tomorrow like the beginning of March 2005 or the 'kent event' as it was known where cold air undercut persistent rain and an epic snowfall resulted over Kent and east sussex as the trough responsible ambled around near the SE corner all day before moving off into the continent that evening.
How good would it be to have a repeat of that!
Yes that one was a fantastic event. Rain at 6am turning to snow only to last all day. Here in Iwade we had 6 inches on the coast, in land at my parents there was close on double that. Then the wind turned North Easterly and strengthened and the snow was piled up into 6-8 foot drifts above Lenham on the N Downs. The following morning the wind was bitter and a few light snow showers were blown in land during the morning. That was a great year for us here in Kent.
James
Great event that one and yes it did cross my mind as well!!
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Morning James
Its once again a complicated set up with still uncertainty regarding amounts of snow. A pulse of rain will track ne towards the se from the channel at the same time the cold air from the north will dig se wards, any rain should turn to snow overnight especially in the early hours towards the morning rush hour. At the moment the heaviest snow looks likely from London southwards, should be some good amounts over the Downs and higher ground, but it's hard to say how much will settle on lower ground as this will likely be wet from the earlier rain.
Morning to you Nick.
Indeed it is a complicated picture but it certainly has the potential to be a fairly potent affair albeit fairly brief. Timing is crucial, if it hits the rush hour as suggested it could cause some substantial disruption especially the drive or journey from Kent which involves a trip over the Downs (M2/A2/M20/M25)
There also is a chance that this front may meander a little in the SE corner for much of the day which may see more prolonged snowfall before it fizzles and moves away.
It is certainly going to be a nowcast situation but with a client at 9.30am in Maidstone tomorrow and then a trip back to Medway to see my physio, I am looking forward to tackling the notorious Detling and Bluebell Hill routes!
James
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What has been truly remarkable about this cold spell has been the extensive snow over a huge part of the UK. It was great to see those that missed out (or most) have now recieved at least some with the outlook looking 'interesting' over the next few days here in the SE.
What is good to see is that the main bulk of precipitation is arriving later tonight at the coldest pat of the night here in the SE. There are signs that this 'event' could well produce another 2-10ms with areas just the the S and E of London receiving the highest totals.
My guess is that somewhere around the Wrotham area down towards Maidstone (and the surrounding high ground) will see the highest totals.
We then have another potential event on sunday/sunday night and again on tuesday into wednesday (depending on the track of the low)
It's been absolutely fascinating and I actually dont mind a slightly warmer day today as it might be the last we see for a good few days.
I would also welcome others thoughts on tonights potential event.
James
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I have 1.0C and a dewpoint of -2.1C, falling at a rate of -1.0C/hr. However, with increasing moisture, wind and temperature, it will probably get too warm for snow. Still looks promising for the time being
Edit: BBC graphics show a band of drizzly very light snow spreading north across the SE between now and 9pm?
Edit again: can see a line of patchy light precip moving NE on the radar
There may be hope of a flake or two then before the deluge of water hits us all
J
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Interestingly both Manston and Langdon bay on the E Kent coast are showing temps just above and below 1c on a freshing wind drom the ESE.
Possible undercutting of cold air from the continent?
James
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Light fine snow here just south of Sittingbourne in Rodmersham. Temp -4 on car. Minor roads absolutely horrendous.
J
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Heavy snow in Iwade, nr Sittingbourne. We may be at sea level here but you can add another 3 cms to the 5cms i had last night already.
My wife called and has been sent home from Boots in Maidstone after I suggested she may not get back over the Downs later. Detling is already down to 1 lane with blowing horizontal snow.
We were right on the boundary here for snow during the night. My parents had no more after about 11pm last night and they only live 5 miles to my east.
Steve M, what can we expect from this front? Not necessarily for my area but generally and do you think we will see rain or just snizzle before dying out?
James
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Here in Iwade just had another shower. Snow blowing off roofs and along the road. Nice covering here and temp -1c.
Nice weather considering we are practically at sea level!!!
J
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White out here in Iwade. Everything covered and blowing snow everywhere!
J
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Seen the 10:00 - 10:15 radar loop for the Estuary??- Firing- What do you think- tops over 8/9k now?
S
The cold front has now gone through i would assume Steve?
Here things have brightened up from the low level cloud cover of earlier. The convective stuff will start kicking off within a couple of hours I would have thought in this now more unstable airstream with lower heights?
Thoughts?
EDIT First 'proper' snow shower here now; flakes not grains!
James
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First post here on NW and a great way to start!
Having lived through many of the major events of the 70's (just)
, 80's and 90's today and tomorrow look equally exciting.North Kent always seems to do well in these situations and I have my fingers crossed for tonight and tomorrow.
Remember for Kent the fun really starts tonight so anything before is a bonus as far as I'm concerned.
The wind is certainly lazy here today reminds me the winters of yesteryear.
Anyway enough ramblings. Weather here is overcast, windy and dry. I would expect the first flurries to arrive before lunch.
Also like to thanks Steve M, TEITS and the like for such an amazing ride over the last week. Your enthusiasm and knowledge has been exceptional and is really helpful to someone like myself who is just learning the physics and dynamics of our exceptionally diverse weather!!
Edit......Lunch has come early. My wife casually came over to me and said 'Oh by the way...It's snowing!!!!'
LET THE FUN BEGIN!!!
James
Snow Watch London, Se England & E Anglia
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Indeed, however I remain very up beat by the prospects here from wed onwards. It's great to see some others do so well though who often miss out. We've seen snowfall every year for the last 21 years since I moved here, so can't be greedy.
James