JamesL
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Posts posted by JamesL
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Expect details to firm up during the day and this evening.
I would expect a red warning to be issued for parts of south and east wales tomorrow.
Areas worst affected will be the valley up to Heads of the Valleys into the Beacons.
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I'm with @andymusic on this one.
I've been following the weather for the past 40 years. I'm an amateur meteorologist and have studied the charts pretty much every day for the last 30 years (since the Jan 87 event)
The greatest southwest blizzards have generally come from fairly marginal situations. This is because the heaviest precipitation is usually where the two air masses meet. This border carries high risk high reward.
However this set up for pretty much all of Wales isn't that marginal. Possibly towards the SW coasts of Pembs may have a wintry mix, due to sea modification however, come in land a few miles and it's all snow for Thursday and pretty much the whole of Friday (the far west my turn slightly less cold)
For me the sweet spot will be in SE Wales closest to the boundary but perfectly placed to still be fed low dew points and 850's between -2 to -4. So that means particularly the valleys and the Heads of the Valleys. So an area from Newport to Cardiff northwards (the eastern Valleys)
Here im expecting in excess of 25-30cms of snow.
Apart from the coastal strip I'm expecting < 10cms and possibly up to 15cms in South Wales fairly generally.
Mid and North Wales between 5-10cms simply because the heaviest precipitation will be closer to the boundary. However come Saturday mid and North Wales may well see more.
Come Saturday I expect temps to recover somewhat and reach low positive maximums in South Wales but closer to zero further north, so a slow thaw will set in by midday sat.
The snow threat then moves to north wales and the north of the UK.
There is however a caveat. The cold air MAY return South and with deep snow cover temps will be suppressed and struggle above freezing from the Heads of the valleys north. South of that expect temps a few degrees above freezing and Cardiff at around 4-5c
So there we have it. This could be an epic event. Make sure you're prepared and stay safe.
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Interesting
seems the Met are possibly unsure of the milder air making it
just been updated and adjusted South for sat
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Great FaceTime with my mother and father this morning from Newnham (between faversham and sittingbourne) and he's measured 8" now from the heavy overnight and morning streamer.
We lived through the great cold spells of 87 and 91 and this one is rivalling 91 for snow depth.
A lot of people slagging the Met Office off but they've been pretty conservative with snow in the hardest hit areas. They always came with the caveat that some would see 10cms plus and others nothing. Bang on.
Here in the South Wales Valleys we have a dusting this morning and light falling snow but my attention is drawn to Thursday Friday and Saturday where I'm expecting 20-30cms plus for the Heads of the Valleys and major infrastructure disruption
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Expect Thursday/fridays snow to get upgraded soon to an amber warning
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4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:
Wow not often you see 2m temps of -6c in the midlands at 3pm in March!
Dew points Tim
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The gfs 06z has taken steps towards the UKMO 0z this morning sending more energy east and a secondary low along channel. Looking at dew points some parts of SE wales look to have pretty much a 3 day snow event.
Knife edge stuff but these situations often bring the most severe conditions.
A long way to go before then so emphasis may shift north or even south (my personal opinion is south)
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2 minutes ago, Herefordweather said:
Can’t see the showers even reaching me in Hereford let alone South Wales. Can see this cold spell being disappointing snow wise for us
Until Thursday night into Friday. Then you will see some very heavy snow ❄️
But I am inclined to agree. Anything prior to Thursday/ Friday is a bonus. But what is different this time around is the ground temps. By the time the end of the week is here EVERYTHING that falls will stick.
There will be many twists and turns during the week. That's a given.
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4 minutes ago, Snow Dragon said:
Sorry for a newbie question. Just trying to get my head round the movement of the low and the resulting mild air pushing north. From a coldie perspective do we want the low to move further south and east into France or as is modelled and move north and east?
thanks in advance
The ideal track for us here in Wales would be more southerly but only by 100miles or so sliding along the South Coast and into Northern parts of France and into the Benelux countries
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So how do people think we will fair here in Wales with that little feature moving SW on Tuesday morning from the NE?
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This is rarely seen.
Here we have a yellow early warning with high impact. I truly believe here in S. Wales we could see this upgraded first to orange and then to a very worrying RED alert. A once in a lifetime event.
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1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:
still 0Z Matthew, 12Z better
It's the 12z in different format
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1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:
Hi mate ^^ see my post above-
The UKMO track was appearing to go North @144 however if its just doing an orbit like ECM where it comes up & kisses the SW then is pushed back SW again thats fine as long as theres eastward energy over France holding the continental flow ahead-
UKMO 144 is slightly warmer @144 than ECM but margins are fine for all-
S
Thank you for taking the time to answer. Living in the Heads of the valley I'm actually getting a little bit excited now. It's been a pretty decent winter here thus far but if it plays out as the ecm suggests we will be rivalling Dec 2010 where we had just over a foot of level snow!
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6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:
Well the ECM is superb
Blizzard for many - Cornwall wiped off the map - then back into the upper air cold pool & heavy snow showers @168 !
Hi steve, great looking charts for a big snow event in the south later next week. However I'm a little confused with your comments on the UKMO 144 chart. You said that all of England and Wales have the uppers mixed out but the chart still shows is under depp cold as well as surface cold being pulled off the continent. I'm confused. Cheers
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1 minute ago, Weathizard said:
With regards to systems approaching us from the south, am I correct in saying as long as the flow is continental then snow is still possible even with -5 uppers or even a little higher in march? I've heard stories about snow falling with 0 850's due to dew points off the continent.
Correct ?
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Very striking similarities with Feb 1991
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Heavy snow shower in Cwmbach this morning settling on cars. Dry now but looks like a few more on their way. Nice to see after the main cold spell produced nowt
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Yes looks like the shower train is on course yet again for the Cynon Valley.
Big flakes settling on cars
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Indeed @frosty the 0z gfs ensembles are not without interest.
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So the cold spell is over......for 24 hours!
Well not quite the the depth of cold we have had this weekend but certainly cold enough for snow and some settling snow above around 150-200m
Heads of the valleys and the Beacons look like getting a few more cms wed night into Thursday.
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1 minute ago, robbo88 said:
What are people's thoughts on the chances of this happening tomorrow night? I get it is the Gfs and it overplays snow.
I am not very good at reading charts so I can't tell what the conditions would be on ecm.
But the regional forecast also mentions rain turning to snow?
It's something the Met Office are keeping a close eye on as the system moves SE there could be snow to low levels during tomorrow's rush hour in the NW. High ground could see quite a depth.
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Great trip over to Brecon from Merthyr today. Looked beautiful. Could see the huge shower clouds to the west forming over the Irish Sea too which may give something later in the West of our region.
Our baby is just 9 months old and loved the snow. Takes after his dad!
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I drove up to Hirwaun from Aberdare and then along the Heads of the Valleys road all the way to Tredegar.
Luckily for me I followed a snow plough from Dowlais Top to Tredegar then nearly got stuck on the slip road (aptly named)
Anyway Tredegar had around 10- 12" of the white stuff. Incredible scenes and puts our 2-3" on Aberdare to shame!
On a serious note, with temps in rural wales dropping to -10 tonight tomorrow will be lethal!
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4 minutes ago, Draig Goch said:
Almost there!! Rapid temperature drop in the last hour:
Swansea 7C to 1C
Porthcawl 9C to 3C
Cardiff 6C to 2C
Quite incredible temp drop. When you think the initial cold front on Thursday dropped the temp about the same in 12 hours!
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Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards
in Regional
Posted
Quite incredible minima this morning in my parents valley in a N Downs frost hollow. Snow is measuring 8.5" deep.