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JamesL

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    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    in Wales / Cymru weather discussion

    Posted

    36 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

    Snow has reached me here - about 10 minutes ago - it’s fairly light but settling immediately on all surfaces as it was below feeling last night.  Doesn’t look like there’s much heavy stuff on the way but hopefully it won’t turn to rain for a couple of hours because it’s nice to watch it falling!

    Great to see that many are seeing falling snow today almost down to sea level 

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    IF the ECM is wrong then it has dealt with this extremely badly 

    You can’t dispel what it’s showing BUT it’s pretty much on it’s own 

    It will be interesting to see how it sits amongst its’ ens 

    Personally I’ve felt that the Ukm, gfs, gfs par, gem et al have all seen a fairly “clean” evolution this eve 

    Ill never discount the ECM, it would be foolish, BUT the odds are stacking against it tonight imo 

    • Like 6

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    in Wales / Cymru weather discussion

    Posted

    As expected a rain fest for the south today and it seems to have gone a little further north too and the warning zone was adjusted back north lol 

    Tomorrow looks to be a better bet and as this front went a little further north it could bode well for tomorrow’s but this time we have the cold air in place 

    Be prepared for either big upgrades or a non event lol 

    Jay is right in that any warning will prob be issued later on today if it’s coming at all 

    • Like 2

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    in Wales / Cymru weather discussion

    Posted · Edited by JamesL
    Spelling

    Good evening ladies and gents!! 
     

    Looks like the warning was moved south as I alluded to yesterday which is good to see 

    BUT 

    I think away from elevation there will be nothing tomorrow 

    Maybe falling wet snow but certainly not settling. I guess it depends on whether we get a decent undercut of cold air before the front slides away south 

    Sunday looks a better bet BUT this time precip looks to be light 

    Just a shame saturdays front couldn’t wait until Sunday lol 

    Either way this weekend will of course spring some surprises and then the following weekend the fun really starts 

    I’m binning the ECM this eve. It’s flip flopped around like a fish out of water after 120-140 recently 

    UKM has been fairly resolute and you certainly would bet against it in the 120  range tomorrow which is when the fun really starts 

    Enjoy the snow 

    My sweet spot I’m going for is Brecon and surrounding and of course the route across the Beacons, past Pen-y-fan from the A470 in Merthyr will be treacherous I’m sure  

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    in Wales / Cymru weather discussion

    Posted

    Just now, Jayfromcardiff said:

    You reckon we'll see decent snowfall mate?

    More places in S Wales will see snow later on Sunday overnight into Monday 

    It won’t be crisp and even, rather slushy and transient and on sat and we may have to rely on evaporative cooling more than on Sunday away from 150m asl where snow will fall widely on sat 

    But we all know that knife edge snow events surprise even the pros and they can also provide quite severe conditions very quickly. I’ve seen heavy rain with flooded roads turn to heavy settling snow which laid down 6” in just a few hours when I lived in Kent. 5 miles away the Precip stayed as rain. Crazy!!

    • Like 2

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    in Wales / Cymru weather discussion

    Posted

    An exciting weekend end coming up

    As expected the models are slowly correcting south

    The best chances for nationwide snow are growing on Sunday now as temps even in the Capital will struggle just a few degrees above freezing 

    Saturday will depend more on elevation than Sunday but somewhere along the Heads of the Valleys should score on both days with Saturdays snow topped up nicely on Sunday before later Monday we see a thaw set in 

    Then it looks by the following weekend temps take another dive with the snow risk increasing again 

    Mark my word I think the warning area will start to edge south esp for Sunday’s event 

    All in all a very exciting few days coming up! 

    • Like 1

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    in Wales / Cymru weather discussion

    Posted · Edited by JamesL
    Spelling

    An interesting 48 hours coming up 

    There’s no way that ANY model has this nailed yet 

    My thoughts? 

    It Will correct south and bring into play the Valleys and SE Wales 

    As for Cardiff I think prob rain and maybe some transient back edge sleet or snow 

    Aberdare I think will sit on the boundary. But HoV will do well as will Beacons, Brecon etc 

    My guess is the Warning zone won’t change 

    But expect surprises just south of it 

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion 24/01/21

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by JamesL
    Change text

    11 minutes ago, WINTRY WALES said:

    Do we think it’s a done deal for midlands south to see no snow at the weekend?!

    A blend of the ECM and UKMO would give parts of mid/se wales and the s midlands some snow. Also EC particularly highlights snow into Home Counties too 

    It will not be resolved yet but IMO any high ground above 200m in the south of the UK highlighted above would probably see falling and settling snow and maybe a transient event lower down (snow to rain or vice versa) 

    • Like 1
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