JamesL
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Posts posted by JamesL
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31 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:
No where in the se has amber today, do they? There's a blanket yellow and rightly so to, my road is an ice rink. Although the nice people that live on the hilly road up to here, have cleared one side of the pavement, so it's safe to walk. Life savers they are, wouldn't have been able to get down the local shop at all otherwise. Slipped on the flat of my road once. Still have snow where people haven't walked. So I don't think the sun's going to melt it all but some has gone obviously. Roads are unusable unless you know what you're doing car wise. Tires slip.
No amber but I wouldn’t be surprised if one was issued over night into tomorrow
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My feelings are that Kent’s and Sussex’s best chances will be later tonight and tomorrow as winds turn more NE
Ironically this is the time I think an Amber warning would be more pertinent for this area
Let’s see how it plays out but I’m thinking proper deep convection here with slower moving cells
Dont get me wrong my parents have seen around 5-6” in N Kent over the last 2 days but I think that could be beaten in 24 hours over the next day or so
As always where these streamers set up will determine where the heaviest falls will be.
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Drifts this morning between Lenham and Doddington in N Kent
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Think this says it all
latest met office forecast
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Just now, claret047 said:
You may well be correct as this is the usual default winter position in the UK. On the other hand until the last two runs there was no turning back from further significant cold streaming in from the east. Carol K this morning was convinced the mild would be repelled over the weekend and make little progress into the UK.
Call me Mr Positive but there is always a route back.
At the moment snowing quite heavily here and hopefully is set to do so for as few more hours.
Kind Regards
Dave
She was still using yesterday’s data sadly
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Just now, PUTIN said:
Can confirm what James says - don't shoot the messenger!
No harm in hoping, but may as well be a realist as well.
I’d love more than anyone to see an extension. They have also moved away from a snowy breakdown too in the west (for me) which is the worst of both worlds!
But it looks like some of you in the SE will get a decent snow event over the next 2 days!
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6 minutes ago, Southender said:
Well. Any milder weather will be brief according to the latest METO update.
UK long range weather forecastSaturday 13 Feb - Monday 22 Feb
It will remain cold or very cold with brisk winds during the start of this period but potentially turning milder over southwestern then western areas for a time, but with a risk of gales at times here. Outbreaks of rain and snow, potentially heavy for some southwestern areas are possible across western and southern areas, whilst mostly dry and bright in the east and north. However with a continued risk of snow showers possible in central and northern areas. Further into this period, snow and attendant wintry hazards are likely to continue which could affect mainly northern areas and eastern areas but not confined to. Overall, conditions look to remain cold but some milder interludes are possible with accompanied unsettled conditions moving in from the west or the southwest.
Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Tue 9 Feb 2021
Monday 22 Feb - Monday 8 Mar
After a potential spell of milder and wetter conditions for most likely western parts, probably a return to colder and drier conditions overall. Whilst overall conditions are likely to remain cold, there is a continued chance for unsettled, milder interludes arriving from the west or southwest. These may produce a risk of disruptive snowfall during transition periods. Increased confidence at the end of February and the start of March for cold and mostly dry conditions. However, there remains a greater than normal threat of disruptive winter hazards for all areas through this period, with snowfall possible for all areas, but most likely in the east.
Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Tue 9 Feb 2021
This will change today.
Overnight models all have the breakdown now at the weekend with none showing a cold week next week
Things have trended the wrong way today and there is no route back
So enjoy the next 2-3 days!
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2 minutes ago, Polaris said:
Big fat flakes falling so heavily for the past 3 hours with temps at -2c with a slow melt of the powder snow this morning. No further accumulation.
It must be something to do with ground temps mate as per your post.
Need that powder snow back and quick.
Come on Easterly!!!!
Sublimation or a faulty thermometer and it is actually melting lol
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3 minutes ago, Polaris said:
-2c - heavy snow falling and yet no accumulation just a slow melt.
Crazy!!!
See my comment above
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4 minutes ago, snowking said:
It's a really strange one, I've just been out for a walk and even on bone dry cars and concrete, with properly powdery type snow, it just seems to melt on contact. The only other thing I could think of is that the wind is having a warming effect (but it certainly doesn't feel like it!).
I suspect it just needs something heavy to come down to cover the ground sufficiently to cool it to be honest. Fingers crossed for tonight
This could be due to very dry air and low dew points
Causes “sublimation” or in layman’s terms turns solid to gas
Just a thought
Happens after snowfall with temps below freezing and the snow just appears to vanish
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- Popular Post
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My 76 year old father snow blading today in Newnham, Kent.
They’ve had around 4” over the last 24 hours. Temp is -0.8 there right now
V jealous indeed as I look out over green fields in the valleys, S Wales
Oh well we’ve done ok for snow so far here so glad the SE are joining in!
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2 minutes ago, Drifter said:
This is the pick of them at day 8 and 9 - the slider dumps some snow on the south
Thank you
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This must be the first time in weeks that no one has posted the ECM charts lol
Could somebody post them up for those of us (of the older generation) that have zero tech skills please
Thank you
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28 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:
What's going on in the SE, people reporting rain even though they've had an amber warning. Nothing worse than that happening.
How's it looking for Wales the end of the week?
Just had a video sent from my father. Heavy snow and blizzards in N Kent this morning!
This week (apart from the odd flurry) looks pretty dryWe may get some disturbances running east to west, just a case of keeping an eye out on fax and radar
End of week we may get some but the way things are heading it may not even reach here as a high builds to our NE
So a nice cold dry week coming up which makes a nice change tbh
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Although I now live in the Valleys of S. Wales, I lived in N Kent through the 1980’s-2010
We had some epic snowfalls on the N Downs where we lived between Sittingbourne and Lenham
My parents still Live there and I’m really jealous looking at what potentially may fall over the next 48 hours there.
Looks like they are right in the sweet spot for that 25-30cms
Here in S Wales we’ve had falling and settling snow for the last 3 weekends so I’m delighted you guys are going to get your fill this time.
Already today the hills above my house are white from earlier snow which wasn’t forecast this early!
ENJOY!!
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Hills above Cwmdare and Hirwaun I can see from my lounge window, are now white. Looks like snow has been falling and settling above around 750-800’ this morning
Certainly a surprise
Way colder than modelled for sure
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Latest 12z UKM shows the low at 120 further west and south in the Atlantic and the Scandinavian ridge further west and south than the 0z output
There is a long way to run on this yet.
More forcing in coming runs could disrupt this low further
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Good afternoon
Looks like winter is about to hit my parents in N Kent on Saturday night/Sunday
Looks fairly benign for most of Wales
Maybe some transient snow on sat night for eastern Wales and the odd snow shower in the early part of the week
Best chance are lows sliding in from midweek onwards. This is certainly not nailed at this point and as always expect the cold to hang on longer than modelled right now
I’m hopeful of some battleground snowfall at some point. Whether this is meaningful will be decided in the next 2-3 days
Until then let’s kick back, relax and enjoy London and the SE grinding to a halt
At least it gives those living there a little excitement in an otherwise boring lockdown
Vaccinations will of course be effected for a few days but nothing too meaningful I hope and here in Wales it should be business as normal
Always the chance of a trough with more organised snow moving east to west and I’m sure the radar will get a hammering over the coming week!
Look out for the elderly and vulnerable too
Hope everyone has a great weekend!
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8 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:
Updated my forecast from yesterday based on last 24 hours of runs. Taken into account small shifts on ECM and GFS in the nearer timeframe, with a wider area of snow possible on Sunday - decided not to be swayed by the GFS's very progressive take on the midweek front...
I’d pretty much agree with that going on what we know thus far. Reminds me of the old Countryfile summary at the end of the forecast
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Bearing in mind the UKM has been rock solid for days and the GFS has been woeful in the run up, I’d be putting the operational firmly in the bin then setting fire to it
Anyone panicking, chill. It’s every model against the GFS with the ECM still to come
UKM at 96 or GFS at 96?!?!?
Come on guys, get with it!
It was only 2 days ago the cold spell had NO SUPPORT on the ens, only to totally flip in 12 hours
GFS is a joke model in these situations
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4 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:
The sun strength was probably the difference between the severe spell that we got, and the historic spell that it could have been had it occurred a month earlier.
Hmmmm we had the coldest March day on record at -5 in Tredegar with drifts up to the guttering
Pretty historic here lol
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Just up above Aberdare with my boy loving life!!
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And while we all ponder on where we will be in 7 days, I write this with heavy settling snow falling in S Wales
a nice surprise of which there will be a lot of over the next 5-7 days countrywide!
Bring on the heavy hitters of the 12z’s!
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3 minutes ago, Ian Price said:
No precipitatiin here nr. Caernarfon, despite blue and some green echoes on the radar over us. I guess the strong easterley wind is blowing the precipitation back west to sea!
This is a good point! Precip will
prob be around 5-10 miles behind the echoes
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South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards
in Regional
Posted · Edited by JamesL
Photo added
In the middle here of a streamer!