JamesL

Snow here

Well this weekend is certainly the best chance of the winter so far I think Feb will bring something more noteworthy At least this winter has been more interesting than last years. Apart from the horrendous flooding it was just mild and boring here with v little snow to speak of even on the hills 1400’ around Aberdare This year I’ve had 3-4 trips out with my 3 yr old to play in the snow higher up

Where do you live? It’s a pain not having people’s locations by their avatars on iPhone, you have to go into their profiles and it looks like you’re creeping on them

It’s nice to cherry pick the bad one this time as all major models point to a decent event

Looks like a pretty decent chance for most of the country here.

100% pretty much no marginality on Sunday apart from possibly the immediate coast

I think the event on early Sunday morning is going to be our best bet for widespread snow. And looks like it’s coming through at the perfect time for Wales too. This system looks like it will deposit snow for most places unlike later today and tonight I’m hoping here in Aberdare where we are over 100m we should get 2-4” by Sunday morning

Personally I think the upper valleys from Hirwaun over to Brynmawr (HoV) will do well lower down towards Ponty/Nantga’ will get a covering. Cardiff I expect falling snow but will be dependent on time of day and whether we have any solar heating before as to weather it settles I’ll be heading over to Tredegar way and left off the HoV road into the Beacons, that’s where I expect the biggest totals and an ice day ill grab some photos too and share them here

As I mentioned yesterday I think a lot of Wales will get a covering over the next 36/48 hours It now seems the dying cold front will be reinvigorated by a trough that lies to the NE and that is set to move through wales later tonight and tomorrow I personally think there will be a few surprises Dew points and uppers all favourable 5-10 miles inland as well as surface temps being sub zero The sweet spot I expect to get 5-10cms with 1-3cms quite widely across the nation but particularly in mid and SE wales That’s my take anyway Views?

You watch, Thursday night Friday morning will take everyone by surprise. I think a lot will be waking up to a covering. Ground temps much colder now and perfect timing re fronts movement over our area. front seems to pep up over South Wales too plus it’s been modelled pretty consistently for a couple of days now maybe the snow gods are on our side this time!!

Seems many of the models put south and SE Wales in the firing line on Wednesday. Looks like the Heads of the Valleys could be esp prone

Well a very interesting drive from Cwmbach to Merthyr. Well didn’t make it to Merthyr lol Turned round too many abandoned vehicles ironically the most snow we have had this year and it’s still autumn at around 600’ theres a good 5cms and I’m guessing much more higher up

Stopped completely now in Aberdare. The snow shower that lasted 10 minutes the other day left way more snow than this event. There's no way the second front is going to make it here. As it hits land it's just evaporating further south. Not quite sure why we are in an amber zone here. The heavy stuff just hasn't made it out of the south west

Hmmmm I'm a little sceptical about this event. First front has died a death. Second front appears to be heading north east missing S Wales entirely. I await the thoughts of people a little more technically minded than myself

Snowing here in Aberdare and just starting to settle but intensity will need to pick up and temp drop to see anything of note. Above 200m should do well esp SE and E facing slopes of the valleys and of course the H ot V too

I can't see I'm on my iPhone I know it well. We have a house in Fresh East

Where on the coast are you from?

It is important that people differentiate the met office forecast from that of the BBC. As you know the BBC no longer use Met office data so that's why there is disparity between the two

What is very encouraging is the fact the ground temp will be close to freezing once precip starts thanks to a penetrating and severe frost for many rural areas tonight

Evening All well it's certainly looking like South, East and Mid Wales are going to get some pretty decent coverage tomorrow. Favoured spots are as always elevation and exposure to the SE. Heads of the Valleys look to be in the firing line as they were for our last snowfalls in March. If I was a betting man I would say Brynmawr is my favoured location for the biggest totals, closely followed by Ebbw Vale and Tredegar Here in Aberdare I'm expecting a decent cover but with some protection from the East I don't expect more than 5-10cms max here We shall see. T minus 14 hours

And the EC also shunting everything South as well following on from the UKMO. For comparison here are 96/120/144

UKMO looking like it's keeping the snow threat going across the UK with its 0z run. Difficult to know exactly as no access to the 850's 96/120/144

If we look across the main 0z suites, then we could say that the colder weather has gained a little momentum today (except gfs) and shows sub -5 air straddled across the UK right out pretty much to day 10 Next week is certainly going to throw up some wintry surprises for some in the UK Do not write winter off just yet. This has certainly got the potential to upgrade and nothing is set in stone yet. I think tomorrow's 12z will throw a little more light on a likely outcome

And the 6z gfs is keen to take us back into deep winter again just a week from now.

UKMO slower yes but looking like the low around Iceland has nowhere to go but move SE as a trigger low sending all that cold over Scandi southwestwards