JamesL

Props to the Met Office, they have handled this situation really well. Indeed the high res models and the ECM pretty much got it bang on from 36-24 hours out and the corrections southward noted by experienced posters came to fruition. Great to see ice days modelled over the snowfields over the coming couple of days too.

Great reading the posts from people getting snow this morning. You also have to give the Met Office serious praise for the accuracy of the forecast. The band as I expected moved south a little more by around 50 miles that brought much more of Wales into the snow zone. And as expected some areas of Mid Wales and also the Heads of the Valley, have experienced their heaviest falls dine 2010/2013. It been a great start to winter and the great thing is those that have lying snow will be able to enjoy it for a couple of days as temp will barely reach freezing. Another big hazard later today will be ice as temps fall away under clearing skies. Hete in Aberdare I got in from my Xmas party at around 11 and it was dry. By around 1 it was starting to rain/sleet then by 3 it had turned to snow. My bet is just 3 miles up the road in Hirwaun it's a good few inches deep. That extra 100m in altitude is making a huge difference in what is a very marginal set up. Im at exactly 400' here whereas Hirwaun is around 650-700'

The latest fax also shows "most" of Wales the "right side" of the occlusion now and the warm front again has disappeared. A few more twists and turns to come. Looks like the MetO are going more in line with the 0z ECM

Some pics from this morning here in Cwmbach, Aberdare We had to take our 8 month old to Prime care in merthyr this morning and above Aberdare the snow went from a covering to around 2-3" by the hospital. Temp was between 0- -2. You know my thoughts on the snow tomorrow. There will still be further adjustments south. Even now my app goes from sleet to rain to snow. And Brecon which is probably only 15-20 miles north of here is in the amber warning. We wait in anticipation. Even if it doesn't materialise we had more last night than the whole of 2016-2017 winter combined

Another heavy shower passes down the Cynon streamer

I'm wondering if there is some kind of convergence zone here stretching from Mid Wales to the Valley area. The wind must be in the perfect position for such alignment. They are putting down a fair amount of snow and seem to be fizzling around the M4 between Newport and Cardiff some 15-20 miles from me.

Snowing heavily in Cwmbach, Aberdare and by the looks of the radar, plenty more beefy showers coming in a line from the Irish Sea to the Cynon Valley!

As I said yesterday expect corrections South. The latest fax charts look great for wales on Sunday and Monday. Quite a shift south with the warm front decaying and being replaced by occlusion which runs along the M4

t48 on ecm

Wouldn't be surprised for you to see snow Sunday tbh. You got a bit of elevation there at between 2-300m

I think we can now say with some certainty that some parts of Wales will have some of their heaviest falls since 2010/2013

.....And following on from the Arpege we now have the 06z NavGem Folliwing suit. This is FAR from a done deal yet

Following on from my previous posts re slider position. The most recent 06z Arpege has it perfectly aligned so that most of what falls in Wales, will be snow

The Gfs has blown this low up which it tends to do from time to time and Imo isn't going to happen. The result would be a southward correction on the 12z

I'm still sticking to my thoughts of last night with further corrections south over the next 36 hours. Overnight runs have moved the slider south and west by around 50 miles bringing huge swathes of mid and north wales into the firing line. And thats not forgetting the frequent snow showers hitting the same areas tonight and tomorrow. Somewhere in wales (and with very modest elevation) will exceed 20cms (8"). However exactly where that will be is still to be decided. All in all a very positive outlook for snow lovers in our snow starved part of the uk.

So we are now on the cusp of our first noteable snowfall since Jan 2013. Here in Aberdare we had around 4-5" on the 18th/19th Jan. The last noteable snowfall in December was of course the infamous winter of 2010, so it's been a LONG wait. As is the case with these set ups; expect the unexpected. Thursday night/Friday I think is our best chance of seeing some snow across the WHOLE region.. Sat sees the showers dying out as pressure rises from the west. The real uncertainty comes on sat night into Sunday. The shallow low that is forecast to cross the UK is still causing issues for the models. They all have agreement on the feature sliding nw-se but exactly where, will be undecided until 12-24 hours prior and even then radar watching will come into play for the heaviest precipitation and where it will fall. Right now as it stands the parts of Wales in the firing line for snow are the North and Mid Wales including the Brecon Beacons and Heads of the Valley regions. The remaining regions MAY see a transient period of snow before it turns to rain and potentially back to snow once it passes through and the colder air filters south. What we need is another correction of 50-100 miles south to bring the whole of the country into play (except those coastal districts in the far south and south west where it will be very marginal) My current feelings are that the slider will slide south and west of it's current trajectory and bring much of the country into the firing line with the sweet spots being Mid and SE wales incl the valleys and borders. Why do I think this? Yesterday I posted my thoughts on the Model Output thread regarding southerly adjustments and sure enough ALL have corrected south today, the GFS currently looking the best for our country. Historically the models seem to underestimate the cold air in situ and the effect thus has on systems approaching the UK from the west. We see it more in a blocked scenario where we have high pressure to the NE and low pressure coming in from the south west approaches. Yes it's a very different situation with a trough to our east and a wedge of higher heights to our NW BUT my feelings are the same. Call it a hunch, intuition or just the fact I've seen it happen 10's of times over the last 35 years. This could IMO potentially be a significant event for many of us especially those above around 100m asl

The difference between the 18z yesterday and the 12z of today.

Imvho, I feel that none of the main 3 have got the track of this slider correct. All we can say right now is it has around a 2-300 mile zone to slide through. Also my feeling is that although the gfs has moved significantly towards the ECM, both will correct south and west nearer the time. This will go down to t12-t24 before it's nailed and even then it will be more about now casting and radar watching. Once we get into the range of the higher resolution models around 48-72 hours we can begin to get some more detailed idea as to who gets snow and who just gets wet!

Gfs 6z looks like a rinse and repeat. Seems the cold always appears just before a weekend

Although I'm sure many are wanting an early start to spring, I'm sure many on here would also like to see more snowfall. What is more encouraging next week is the blocking high comes from a mid Atlantic ridge. Far more room for error imo than a scandi ridge which notoriously gets modelled as HLB and ends of as a sceuro ridge come t0 with any cold uppers heading into Greece! So for me I'm quite excited how this is going to play out over the next 4-5 days. GFS is always good at spotting trends and now the ECM is sniffing around a similar theme. Expect some more support from the 12z and possibly a sniff from the ext UKMO at 168 and also the ens later on today All in all, good trends!

Earlier drizzle has now turned to snow blowing in the wind. Not sure if dew points have dropped a little this afternoon in our region?

Light snow here in Cwmbach this morning.

Yes and our cold N or NE being sent into the mid Atlantic whilst we are bathed in mild SW's one to watch and a very real option. Better than it showing us in the firing line only to back further and further West. Be nice to see that trend eastwards and give us in the UK winters final hurrah!

Looks like the UKMO says yes to the GH IMO in 5 days time the charts will be showing our next cold spell but this time I have a feeling it will deliver to more of the UK and be coming from the N or NE and not the E or SE

If we compare the UKMO and the ECMWF at 144 I think there is only one way the UKMO is going. As much as the ECM has been hated on, I still find it's evolution very believable and as Seasonality said, it spotted the breakdown of our current spell pretty well