lfcdude
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Posts posted by lfcdude
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Wiltshire? Tues? Drunk on phone.. But holaaaaa
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That twitter convo... Very good reading!!!
@fergieweather - Agreed. Experience says get this pattern setup & cold/blocked scenario isn't shifted easily. The attempts will be fun! ;-)
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Ive lived on mendips for best part of 15 years and although we do get alot more snow being high up I have yet to see one true epic all snow channel low so they are extremely rare!
I do see them on the models every year however in FI
Odds must be beginning to come in are favour now.. Of one actually happening some day...
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Interesting it says a cm or two possible in advisory....
Well meto does have me down for sleet showers at 6 am
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Dropped to -5.7 last night.. currently 0 °C
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Well of to bed now.. How low will it drop tonight? -3.9 as of 2.10 am...
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Oh god... Anyone seen Ian's post in the MOD thread... What could this mean?! I can't stay up for this.... It's past my bedtime I have model fatigue!
Am anticipating a key step change in UKMO modified output and will update on this before midnight when the 4-5d full analysis is with us. Interesting times, folks.
Here we go again....
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All east. Damn
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Ian you got any money on a white Christmas? You think its a good punt this year? Our not?
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That's alright, you're pretty much smack bang in the middle. lol
Just got home & currently have sleety rain. I use the word sleety purely because there was something else coming down in front of my car headlights but it wasn't snow.
Yes! Feeling optimistic dew point is 1.. temp is 1... Will get cooler as the night goes on... Keep positive!
Edit Dew Point
0 °C
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Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweather
To paraphrase issues: some snow by tomorrow AM could fall anywhere from E Wales across to London & Kent, or... just somewhere in between!!!
Haha Nightmare..
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Latest nae which Ian f is hinting at.
The east our area is down for 2-5cm on this run, still plenty to be surprised about Glouc, wilts, into n Dorset
Looks promising...... Would say Devizes near the edge of snow and rain... Still all very positive few miles could be the difference though
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Not so good news for us from IAN F in the MOD thread
[V V quick comment re snow tonight - tomorrow AM. New output from UKV, MOGREPS, NAE and EC offering varied solution(s) and huge uncertainty now in areal scope and amounts - i.e., SE / Home Counties / London area / SE could see more in some new progs (2cm or more in places) whereas other solutions in the suite suggest more focus to NW of London (Chilterns, over to Cotswolds etc). MOGREPS more widespread across fair swathe of central-S England. Signal now hinting towards a more easterly bias generally, away from W Country other than E Glos / N Wilts, but this detail not to be trusted. Hence much, much to play for. A nightmare forecast frankly. Anyway, gotta dash.Always was the case....Still im hopefull
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Latest nae and to some extent the gfs is interesting in developing a small feature that runs down thru glost. Wilts and into Dorset.
Precip totals upto 7-8mm.
Nae shows it turning to snow after about 1-2hrs however higher elevation should help, dps drop a lot with thepassage of the system down to -1.
IMHO there is a by good chance of see some snow in these areas principle between 10-12.
A lower chance , but an outside realistic one of 2-3 hrs of moderate snow for a lucky few if the cold are undercuts quickly enough to provide the enhanced precip, if this happens 5-7cm could be possible.
Very much worth having netw radar for good luck tommorow if you live in ht right areas.
Sorry on phone so no pictures
Wiltshire! Might see a dusting then... Thursday looks like just rain
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Yup, interesting set-up tomorrow AM. More on this, with very latest thinking from UKMO, in this eve's Points West
When you said you cant get the weather out of your head last week on the forecast... i believe you! The amount your on here
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Are you sure you have 10c!? that seems a little too mild for a true reading? Is it in the sun or by a radiator?
4.8c here
AWD... Wednesday morning looks interesting along with thurs/friday early hours it will be interesting to see what Ian makes of it this evening. My only hope is that it speeds up just a little as i leave for bristol at 7am si I would miss it if it was a hill only event.
Maybe...I have some hope..
Also Netweather has me for flurrys... So hope for a little dusting
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Aside from Ireland, look at the only green area of the UK by weeks end;
But Friday...
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Taken from Ian Fergusson in the MOD thread.
http://forum.netweat...ttach_id=147074
You can see by T39 that the snow symbols (blue dots) are getting ever closer to the West Country,
Nothing major of course, but an early winter flurry possible for some.
Need them blue dots south abit...
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Has anyone seen Ian's latest post in the MOD thread?
"10-15 day timeframe, Scandinavian block setting up with an easterly flow of real purpose and frontal inscursions from the SW"
Sorry, but can I start drooling already?
RAMPPPPPPPPPPPPPP
Hopefully Ian will pop on some time with his take on Thursday Friday... probably dismiss all hope for us with the m4 getting mentioned but yeah..
Oh just seen..
fergieweather, on 02 December 2012 - 11:36 , said:Not UKMO view based on very latest from them: some transient low-level & (more substantive) upland (500m+) snow Thursday, but rain for the majority (certainly in South). Their MR view is actually somewhat 'milder' for the following weekend (average temps, no snow issues). More tellingly, latest 10-15d prognosis now leans towards Scandinavian block establishing with real purpose; easterly flow setting-up and attempted frontal incursions to SW. MOGREPS now in step with EC Monthly and so the cold, blocked signal remains headline to our MR forecasts.
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Look how the M4 is trying its best to stop the 528Dam line passing south of it;
http://forum.netweat...ttach_id=146738
As Chris Kamara would say... Unbelieving Jeff!
Just typical... before it was built... Was it already a dividing line....
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I'm getting quietly excited, too. The prospects aren't looking too bad at all.
However, to increase my chances for snow I have moved house and am now a couple of miles north of the M4, instead of 1 mile south of it! Fingers crossed that this tactic will work.
Dedication right their my friends...
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Ian ferguson has tweeted possible light snow flurries over Cotswolds tonight:)
"@NickIceJones: NAE shows light snow over WC tonight thoughts?" V light flurries perhaps Cotswolds etc. Nil significant.
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.mullender your hill might get a flurry...
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All happy in the MOD thread again. lol.
Indeed but...
Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweather
"@95michael28: @fergieweather UKMO Bitter easterlies still on its sticking to its guns whats your thoughts?" Uncertain. We await 12z UKMO-GM
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