Jason H
-
Posts
446 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by Jason H
-
-
Just now, Stu_London said:
Yay - I claim my £5 for the first winter is over post
. It's only just beginning in my book.
-
1
-
-
Just now, Don said:
Yes indeed, rubbish for the far south and it's not like we can drive to find snow ATM!
Winter is over....
-
4
-
-
Just now, Allseasons-si said:
And is very similar to the 12z Crew...
9 days away. 5 days into FI. Not likely to verify. But certainly within the scope of current modelling. From a synoptic point of view, that finger of high pressure up and over the Pole is beautiful.
-
1 minute ago, saintkip said:
You say slight alternative, it’s gone from 20cm’s of snow to nothing, that’s a pretty big change
It's a change out in fantasy land, yes. No change from the GFS in the overall set-up, which is cold.
-
1
-
-
2 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:
Nope. We would need something exceptional to better 1963. Not impossible, but very highly unlikely. Tomorrow morning should hopefully give a clearer picture on where this is heading.
It's clear enough to me where this is heading. I won't let one rogue (OK, 3) ECM op(s) detract me
-
1
-
-
1 minute ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:
To sum up the ECM, it’s off the post and then in all roads lead to cold as it stands.
Agreed. ECM continues along its own path towards cold. Not 1963 by any standards, but is this likely?
-
2
-
-
2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:
This is it ecm!!!!your chance to be a good boy and join the cold weather lovers on this forum...!!!!
I admire your enthusiasm for a computer generated algorithm. I'd be surprised if the ECM deviated from a cold outlook. But remember, it is one run from a number of ensemble members. Look at the output with that in mind and that this specific run could be a warmer run from the pack, or even a colder run. That being said, I do like the running commentaries that people do as the models come out step by step. Most entertaining.
-
2
-
-
The bi-polar nature of this thread continues. Variation again on a general theme of cold encroaching from the East/North East. Good operationals so far.
-
8
-
-
Quiet on here. ECM I take it has caused the sudden lack of postings? The usual inter-run wobbles. Still on track from what I can see.
-
8
-
1
-
-
- Popular Post
- Popular Post
People getting hung up on the operational again. Look at the overall picture. That ECM operational is a variation on the theme and whilst not delivering Narnia, it's still pointing to a cold outcome. "The best of winter is over" opined one poster? Brave call.
-
15
-
1
-
2 minutes ago, Drifter said:
I’ve seen enough of the 6z op and // to show 96hrs is the limit to be looking at this morning and snowy surprises could pop up at short notice.
Snow chances at the weekend, ushered away sharpish by the Atlantic. Then what?
-
1 minute ago, Downpour said:
Eh?
Not good to sneer at people disappointed with snow. You never know, the snow shield might strike your locale next time around.
-
2 minutes ago, Downpour said:
In my back yard: absolutely stupid criticism/cliche used by weather-nerds to attack those who are interested in the weather in their own area! Crazy, I know!
People in glass houses old boy. You don't want the snow shield to strike.
-
14 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:
Mon 25th Jan, can it be ignored, 3 models now show it turning crap on that date? hopefully all wrong, hmmm but I do wonder, 3 models wrong big ask even FI
Absolutely. 9 days away. Not a fig of verifying.
-
3 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:
Yep, I think too many may be guilty of looking too far ahead, rather than concentrating on the short term building blocks that we see currently modelled. I mean how many people would be fretting if they couldn’t see what was modelled past day 6?
Exactly. T144 is the maximum. And even that is a little optimistic. That's why I am more confident tonight in that the big 3 seems to be closer. Still lots to go, but a definite up-tick.
-
3
-
-
4 minutes ago, Frostbite1980 said:
I never put my head on the chopping board but remember this date and what the charts are showing! I am so confident that ne USA will be in a bitterly cold pattern in the next 10 days and most the UK will be bathed in average temperarures due to a west based negative NAO at best i will run down my garding chanting to pepper pig naked. We need to face facts that the possible cold period from the 20th has now been pushed back significantly if at all!
Fair play. I am not a forecaster and don't pretend to be. I have a rudimentary understanding and knowledge of the charts. And in probability going on past form, you're probably correct. There's no need for naked Pepper Pig chanting though.... However, all I know is that 5 days is a long time in forecasting terms and things do and can change, for better or worse, dependent on your weather preference.
-
7
-
-
It's not the most likely scenario. Even if it was, it's over a week away. Far too much emphasis is placed on these operational charts out yonder. I get that they're there to be commented on, but this needs to be tempered with the probability of the time-frames involved. I am really enjoying this period of model watching.
-
6
-
-
16 minutes ago, That ECM said:
T144 all 3. Not bad. If that’s as far as it went many would be interested.
Sensible post. Even those charts are in FI. Improved Operational's tonight for those hunting further winter weather. The ensembles looking better too. Interestometer up to a 6/10.
-
2
-
1
-
-
Very good presentation of the current state of play. Delivered calmly and succinctly. Unlike the Model thread
-
2
-
-
These latest charts seem to tie in with the Met Office assessment of winds from Scandinavia in the mid term. Still the best in the business. Encouraging to see the GFS operational follow suit. As always, the ensembles and the EPS will give us more of an idea for the direction of travel.
-
2
-
-
3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:
This is a very nice evolution from GFS 12Z cut off high in 3...2....1...
No worries about Iberian heights there. All change again in the mid-term. Not to be trusted at the best of times. Short term changes in the output this evening swing the pendulum back to cold. Still lots to play for. Further output required.
-
3
-
-
It seems that no matter what the early/mid-term brings us, the end result is a blocked, increasingly colder pattern. Good trends tonight from the Ops. Let's see what the ensembles/EPS have to say.
-
3
-
-
Lots of knew jerk reactions to the overnight and morning runs, in both directions. There's no denying, no matter what way the models try and thwart it, there's always some cold solution. Enjoy the ride. Look for the overall trends, not the details, especially past 4/5 days.
-
4
-
-
Is it a Greenland ridge? A Greenland wedge? A surface Greenland High? A high Greenland high? Runs..... Joking aside, they don't look too bad.
-
7
-
1
-
Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Models moving to other models? Or the models just displaying their interpretation of the data it's fed? Fascinating stuff, no matter the semantics. Some places could get serious snowfall based on the latest GFS op. Still heading towards cold for all is the general theme. How and for how long still to be resolved.