Jason H
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Posts posted by Jason H
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It is only 17C outside! Nevertheless frequent distant flashes are lighting up the sky to our south now!
Only 17° at 12:09? Lol. This is the UK, not Florida. That's a pretty warm night time temperature for the UK.
Storms abated here for now. Nice lightening display. The odd boom of thunder and some convective rain. That's it for the South East tonight I think. Night all. Hope you get what you wish for.
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Rain and thunder ceased. But lightening still flickering away every 5-10 seconds.
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A great light display tonight. Superb stuff!
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The lightening display is superb. Is this being picked up on radar? I'd be interested to know the strikes per minute. At least 30 by now. Still mainly high based storms. No hail yet, although heavy convective rain now. Seems to be developing overhead?
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Lovely electrical display in Bexleyheath. High based storms mainly IC with the odd CG. Occasional convective downpours. Lightening at least every 5 seconds. Very impressive. Lying here in bed windows and curtains open watching the display. Is this the North Downs effect?
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Yawn
Thanks for that!
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Those moaning about the current conditions need to look at the bigger picture. Just because it's clouded over and breezy, doesn't mean there's not going to be a storm later. It's never that simple. Many thanks
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This is the towering cumulonimbus over Greenhithe and Dartford earlier
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Except its dank misty and overcast in London. Please remember the weather is not the same in other parts of the country as it is on yours :-)
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I love the people who go on about snow shields and gaps in the showers. By their nature, showers have gaps. Lol.
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Slight over reaction. lol
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Dewpoints are the key for tonight. Not looking favourable at the moment. Next week looks to continue the cold. Warm regards it certainly ain't!
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Snowing fairly heavily again I. Gravesend 7 I'd say. Could it be the Thames?
Nah. its the clouds
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Snowing properly now. Not expecting this
. Won't last long, but nice to see snow falling. -
Flakes fluttering down here now
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They didn't, that upgrade is due later in the year.
That makes the ensembles meaningless until then.
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JMA flattens out by day 8. I'm sure Exeter have taken note!
Can't remember if it was right or wrong last time
Lol
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Why not post something which contributes to the thread?
My post was based on what the model was showing. Posting about the models in the model thread? Whatever next :-)
Please do try harder!
Touchy. I was merely pointing out that any breakdown on the GFS was over 11 days away, so shouldn't be taken as gospel. And, not to worry too much. Yesterday I was sceptical of the up and coming cold spell. I think it's been upgraded today with colder uppers now being introduced, so mu bullishness is increasing. I'll wait for the Met Office or Ian F to comment further.
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GEFS are a further downgrade IMHO. Others will no doubt see thing differently (which is perfectly fine)
By 252 hours the Atlantic has broken things down on all but a couple of ptrbs. In terms of the depth of cold a few are better than the opp, but overall the opp is representative of the 12Z suite.
Phew, so we're looking at a charts 11 days away to confirm the cold spell that hasn't started has finished. LOL.
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Nope those last 4 charts would great in July, i'm beginning to think we are chasing shadows for any type of prolonged snowfall in the southern half of the UK. We need a high pressure to establish itself to the north or northeast of the country but that jetstream is just too strong for anything to take hold.
On face value, whilst I am inclined to agree with that assessment, you never know what can pop up. Ian F left some interesting comments earlier about the current set up. As TEITS has mentioned above, it's where the blocking occurs that's the crucial factor. The latest operational GFS is not in a favourable position for colder weather over the whole UK, not just the South. Still plenty of winter left for something colder, but at the moment, like you, I can't see anything too obvious in the current outputs for sustained cold.
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Obviously GFS precip amounts shouldn't be taken too seriously at this stage, especially with snow. 18Z much better for snow prospects for a wider wearer as Kold Weather said a few posts back. Here is Snow accumulation GFS(take with salt).image.jpg image.jpg image.jpg[/quote
I'm not buying into any of these charts the Met Office are fairly confident there will be no troublesome snowfalls this week.
You don't have to buy them, they're free?
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Despite the dumps of snow GFS has modelled this time the synoptic from UKMO is better for coldies in general terms, any snowfall less marginal, a bit colder with pattern further West, AH displaced and better Atlantic ridge/amplification for potential longevity, better NE/E draw to drag in cold uppers.
Stunning winter synoptic.
Blimey oh crikey. That's a stunning chart for deep mid winter. I bet the Met Office are twitching now
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UKMO looks even better. Keeping the Azores and any warm sectors well West compared to GFS.
Sensational chart. Bring it on please.
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Hardly fair post BD, I contribute what I can, I don't know a great deal, but when I see something that I think may add some sort of value or discussion point to the thread, I'll post it. If every user reading the topic were looking for posts from the likes of Nick Sussex, Ian F & Lorenzo etc, then there would be about 50 pages just overlooked, just because some members are new to this, or like myself have a fairly limited knowledge base compared to some others, does this mean I'm talking as you say 'absolute b*!!@xs'. I don't see you contributing to this thread.
It's posts like yours that prevent people from posting, or scare people away from this thread.
So tell me, because I prematurely called out the 12z as a mild run when it showed MILDER synoptics for Christmas & Boxing Day, when compared to the 06z, how does that make my post rubbish?
I'm done posting in this thread now. Have fun.
It's not scaring people away at all. I'm afraid post like your original one, although well meaning, confuses people and that puts people off posting. Just let the runs unfold and then voice an opinion. I don't think he implicitly said your post was rubbish. It was a light hearted post in general. No malice intended.
Shame you won't be posting any longer. If you cannot take criticism for a post on a weather forum, perhaps it would be better for you not to post?
Awaiting the ECM to see if the puzzle can be solved. I doubt it will though
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. Won't last long, but nice to see snow falling.
Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
The futility of looking too far ahead. That's not a personal spite against anyone in particular, just an observation. I shall pug that chart away and check it on the 17th to see how near the mark it was