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Jason H

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    Winter Model Discussion 18Z 19/2/13 onwards.

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    The easterly doesn't look set to bring much in the way of convection. The skew-t forecast for London for T+84 highlights the main issue:

    http://cdn.nwstatic....d-London-84.png

    There is a layer of dry, stable air starting at around the 850hPa level- convective clouds over the North Sea are likely to keep hitting that capping layer and spread into stratocumulus, resulting in grey skies and just occasional sleet or snow flurries near the east coast.

    Thanks for that link. It would seem the logical reason as to why the forecast for convection is inhibited. A shame that with cold 850's and a favourable wind direction the convection is going to be killed. Still some falling snow seems likely for the South East.

    Winter Model Discussion 18Z 12/2/13 onwards.

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Good at 192hrs Atlantic trying to come in, however failing as it does so therefore possible fronts coming in from the west then stalling, which will likely to be snow. One thing that does worry me is the shortwave to the SE of Greenland, this may stop the high from retrogressing but thats 8 days away and small features like that will appear and disappear, great run however!

    Nice East South Easterly there. That will feel very raw!

    South East/East Anglia Regional Discussion 11/02/13 00z ----->

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by Jason H

    Very localised distribution of snowfall! Bexleyheath has a slushy covering side roads a bit dicey but main roads OK. The A2 at Dartford Heath was quite snowy with the hard shoulder covered. Snowing all the way to the M25. Down at Crossways nothing! Literally nothing, no lying or falling snow. Colleague living in South Woodford reports lots of snow and can't get into work! All very bizzare.

    Model Mayhem - Moan, Ramp, Go Nuts

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Jason H

    Just to echo what's been said this morning. Steve M summed it up nicely with a measured post.

    Still chasing shadows 10 days away as we have been for the last few days.

    A few more uk high sinkers in the ensembles this morning. That is usually the end game with this pattern as the northern arm eventually flattens the AZH.

    Still some decent ensembles but nothing convincing.

    Will be a wild few days in the near term and somewhere in England with a little elevation might get lucky to the NW of London.

    Jason

    Who's chasing shadows? You seem to be. I can see snow three days away and the pattern for next week is far from set. All to play for as far as I can see. It's my observations that the early morning posters seem to look for a 63/47 whereas the later posters seem to give a more measured outlook.

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