Jason H
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Posts posted by Jason H
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Nice model runs so far I think tonight. Is this snow for many on the GFS(P) on the 27th? 'Full' low pressure over us in what looks to be -4 to -6 uppers;
Look what's to follow as well, that will be true artic air. Certainly a disturbed spell of weather to come. What ever precipitates, it's going to be wild.
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Think we all need to take a step back to be honest. Talk of cobra meetings taking place are well wide of the mark. Looking at the gfs 06z away from scotland we are looking at nothing much apart from a few fleeting cold snaps. Yes we may well be seeing a northern hemisphere pattern change taking place. But snowfall this side of xmas is very rare for the uk apart from dec 2010 of coarse.And until the mo come on board we should all be very sceptical of the eye candy runs in fi. So lets see what the next few days bring. And if were still seeing similar output around next monday then we maybe onto something. Until then i will watch ian fergusons updates with intrest regarding the met office musings.
We all need to take a step back, or the odd excitable poster? I don't think anybody is expecting anything too dramatic yet. Certainly agree with you about a change in the overall pattern as shown the latest model runs. What fruit that bears, we wait to see.
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Monster CB to my East. Going to be a good afternoon.
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All about the rain. Torrential stuff!
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Thunderstorm in progress Bexleyheath. Going very dark as well. What a summer so far for convective fans!
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What a great 3-4 days for this part of Kent. Thursday night storms were not forecasted with some of the best lightening I've ever seen. Fridays MCS was something else. Picture below of the crazy skies! A brief storm Saturday morning, then carnage today on the way home on the M2 from Kent. And it's still bloody hot as well!-
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Great post by Sparkicle on this page. I suggest everybody reads it as it explains the current situation and more especially to tonight's developments succinctly
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I'm pretty sure it's going to be cold in 5-6 days time, but is it from the East or the North West? Tough one. I know which outcome I'd be rooting for
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Look at the fetch on that Easterly on the UKMO 144. Cold. Shame it's too far out to take as reliable, but the trends look great. Awaiting the ECM with interest.
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Models still teasing us mid term. I've a feeling that the High Pressure is just too far East to effect this part of Europe, which has been the story so far this winter. We're probably due a snowless winter by the laws of average. Rain does look the immediate concern. Friday & Sunday look like rub outs.
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Hmm, whilst there is the odd gust that's quite strong, it's not as bad as others have been reporting in my locale. I must be sheltered by adjacent houses. Still plenty of time to change.
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as i said in my area thread.. looks like everything is running out of juice and decaying
Would agree with that around the London area. I still think the Midlands, more so the West Midlands are the places to be tonight.
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Lots of flooding in Caen just to rub our noses in it
I'd rather have bone dry conditions than flooding ta very much. I know what you mean though..
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Hope the pilot on your flight takes great care up there, could be a bit bumpy!! Very warm uppers over France as displayed on Tuesday leading to some monstrous storms and probably MCS's.
As for the Balearics, super hot uppers of 20c+ up to 25c perhaps over there, so no shortage of stifling heat thats for sure! Storms a possibility too.
Early morning flight should negate the storms over France. But the heat/humidity out in the Balearics cannot be avoided. Luckily, the pool is 15 steps from the front of our villa.
Pleasant evening here with a cooling breeze. Humidity begins to wind up from Sunday here. -
Looks like I'm timing my departure to Menorca on Tuesday about right where it looks like turning fiercely hot. For the UK, the models seem to be agreeing on a more unsettled spell of weather possible from late this weekend in the SW then spreading North and East through to midweek. Hot at first, but gradually moderating by this time next week. Reasoned and detailed explanation by Old Met Man again. Good to have someone of his calibre on here. It's easy to ignore quality post like this and comment on the obvious wind up merchants.
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Has anybody compared this to 76? If they have we're nowhere near it. The heat from this spell seems to have moved around the country. The North seemed to start with the high temperatures, these transferred South and East and are due to head West as we approach the weekend as an Easterly picks up. Even the "cooler" weather is still nice and warm.
In about 6 days, a serious plume of hot air looks like spreading North from Africa over Eastern Spain, the Balearics, onto France then the South of the UK.This could introduce some thundery potential towards a temporary breakdown. But as Old Met Man posted on Sunday, these types of weather patterns and profiles are very difficult to get out of, so whilst relatively cooler weather with storms looks likely, I can't see it lasting too long. Drying up with High Pressure reasserting itself close to or over the UK.
Today was very hot in London town, horrible to work and travel in.
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Interesting to watch model developments at the moment and how there is a growing consensus of a shift of position for the HP later this week.
<Snip>Enjoy the sunshine!
Hi OldMetMan. Nice to see you posting in here during the summer months. Thanks for your detailed analysis, always welcomed.
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This place never changes. Be it the cold weather in the winter or hot weather in the summer, people always looking for a breakdown. Really in the reliable timeframe it remains warm and sunny hot in some places. The further you go out on the charts, the more variablity comes into it, that's to be expected. A fine spell of summer weather. Nothing too hot so far, but the chance of it getting hotter look good based on the current near term charts. ECM phew....
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Driving back from 5 aside football tonight through Bean near the ghastly Bluewater shopping centre , I could see mid level development and cloud tops bubbling in a line North of London into Essex. That must be what has been showing on radar. Nocturnal cooling mabe at play?
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haha i won't take a blind bit of notice of that, yesterday and today was mean't to be 19 or 20c according to the models three days ago, in reality it has been 13c with slate grey skies, tomorrow was mean't to be 21c and sunny it is now looking like being 16c and cloudy with drizzle, so like i said FI for me is T24, in fact probably not even that long tbh
If you're going to ignore it, why are you here?
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Croydon?
Lowestoft?
What's funny about that? Light snow in Heath of the Bexley variety.
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You reckon? The 3-day week is a historical fact. I know as that is when I started my first job after college and it was quite tricky trying to do detailed work by candlelight — of course now, no work will be possible at all as the computers won't work.
It wouldn't surprise me at all the way this country's lunatic energy policies have proceeded to price pensioners out of their homes — (another fact). We 'right wing nutters' 'fruitcakes' and 'deniers' and some very expert engineers or anyone else who knows about power generation, have been saying for years the lights would go out… well now it looks like it's going to happen.
I wrote out the application for a job with my current employer during the infamous January 1987 spell by candlelight! I remember the three day weeks. I remember the power cuts of the 70's. We're a long way from those days. To suggest anything else if fanciful internet conspiracy nonsense. Apologies for off topic reply..
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my friend just told me that london tv is reporting plans to ration the electric?
ITV news? LOL, as reliable as their weather forecasts. Sensationalist nonsense! ITV Should be nuked from the airways. Atrocious pap!
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It's dying out
LOL. You still here?
Pleasant evening here with a cooling breeze. Humidity begins to wind up from Sunday here.
Model Output Discussion - The Run In To Christmas
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Oh dear. Never peak too early. Another wild and stormy run. The kitchen sink in that run, not mild either!