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Everything posted by Jason H
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Model output discussion - another cold spell on the horizon?
Jason H replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
10 days away? I'm not too concerned. We haven't got agreement at 5 days. It's pointless fretting about a scenario at this time frame. Personally, I'm really enjoying this period of model watching. Like the majority, I want cold and snow. It's all the fun of the ride. It's only the weather. -
Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?
Jason H replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Those look promising. -
Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?
Jason H replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
. Drat. I thought I'd got away with it. -
Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?
Jason H replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Are we/they? It's only one run. I can't emphasise that anything beyond day 5 should be treated with the utmost caution. Such inter-run variability and volatility at the moment. Awaits further runs with interest. -
Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?
Jason H replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Those ensembles are all over the shop. All options are on the table. Pick a long range forecast out of that -
Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?
Jason H replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It's one operational run. The signs are there that a cold pattern is emerging in the last third of the month. There is no long lasting cold spell currently. -
Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?
Jason H replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I agree with this post, but it's a slightly condecending way of putting it. 5 days is the maximum at the moment and probably most of the time. But it had to be said, each run seems to end cold. -
Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?
Jason H replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I think you might be on the hype train too soon again my friend and it will only lead to disappointment. It's one operational run. The interesting part for cold weather fans lies 5+ days away. Definitely overall in the model world, it's trending in the right direction though. -
South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards
Jason H replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
Not really. It's fairly scattered light snow showers. -
Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards
Jason H replied to bluearmy's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Don't be suckered in again..... Nirvana is still 10+ days away. Joking aside. Excellent input again tonight from several posters. -
Not reacted, commented that the UKMO and ECM have backed away from a colder solution going forwards at day 5 on their operationals. Let's see what the later runs bring.
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No denying that ECM and UKMO are singing from the same sheet at day 5 which is at the edge of reliability. I'll let people more learned then I decipher the reasons for this.
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Lol. Look where that northerly originates from. The other side of the pole. That's never going to happen. Nice to look at though.
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Those are definitely getting better.
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South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2020 onwards
Jason H replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
I see we still have snow shields in place.. Snow shields... -
Thankfully over 2 weeks away. And that also applies when it trends colder too. Too much emphasis being placed on these "far out" ensembles.
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Model Output Discussion - Into the new year
Jason H replied to SMU's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yeah. That's pretty conclusive. Despite all the different GFS operationals, it's all heading one way. Firming up on the cold. -
Model Output Discussion - Into the new year
Jason H replied to SMU's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I think I am preparing to dismiss the specific GFS Op solution. But overall I still think it will be cold and blocked future. -
Model Output Discussion - Into the new year
Jason H replied to SMU's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I don't think that's in the reliable time frame (even the outer) at all. The evolution on the GFS just looks wrong to me. I'd be happy to be proven wrong, but synoptically, I just can't see it playing out like that. I would urge caution peeps. The High to the North West is gradually inching closer to the UK each run too. Again, this is outside the reliable. The future still looks cold regardless. -
Model Output Discussion - Into the new year
Jason H replied to SMU's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I think somebody once said on here, that a Greenland High is a thing of pure beauty when it sits there directing traffic from the Pole/North East. That is a beautiful chart for lovers of cold and snow and a text book example of "directing traffic". But this scenario is still way out in the future, far out of the reliable time-frames. It's good to see however and the longer term signals are definitely for cold. -
South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards
Jason H replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
Storm to the south east rumbling away nicely. Going darker. -
South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards
Jason H replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
North and South downs doing their work.