[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards]

6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

By close of play monday (23:59) im expecting a wide cover over North & North west Kent, SE london,south East essex,South Suffolk - maybe up as high as 6 inches over the hills - 1-5 elsewhere

The PPN builds overnight sunday but the optimal time for widespread snow ( moving to the outer counties ) is around lunchtime monday ...

The models - even the high res / fine mesh ones will still be miles out on depths...

Morning Steve, are we nearly at 100%?

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards]

Wonder where Steve is?  Another visit to the souk?

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards]

Keep it going Steve, are we near 100% certainty yet?

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards]

Thanks Steve, really look forward to your updates, brings a bit of sanity to the forum which is badly needed.  Too many people giving mis-information, sometimes intentionally.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards]

3 minutes ago, Sidsnake said:

I think I've got it here Gillybean.. 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/#?tab=coldWeatherAlert

Can one register to have those alerts emailed?

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards]

16 minutes ago, runboy said:

Cool in Norwich this morning, overcast and damp, no frost, hopefully will clear east during the day and start to cool down. Some interesting day temps coming out on the BBC forecasts this morning with -2 daytime on Monday/Tuesday.

Time to drain down your outside taps and make sure they are covered up!

Thanks for that reminder about the outside tap, that’s something I forgot.  It’s really important.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards]

9 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Lake effect snow requires 3 key ingredients 

1) cold air, the colder the better 

2) A big body of water, the bigger the better also it needs to be "warm" current SSTs around 5-6 perfect 

3) lower pressure, with the correct on shore wind direction 

Lake effect snow takes place because the cold air travelling over warmer waters begins to pick up moisture. As the clouds begin to build upwards thanks to such a steep temperature gradient through the atmosphere and at the surface it allows cloud heights to increase upwards sometimes to the height of thunderstorms hence you get thundersnow. Along with a few other factors like lapse rates which aid in convective lift you start to get heavy snowfall within those areas affected. 

Most of the time it appears in lines or streamers as we call them where the body of water is longer and straighter inland slightly (Thames Eastery) or where there could be geographical lift or convergence of winds. 

There are lots of micro factors that you get after the 3 top main ones that can dramatically effect where snow may fall. 2 miles away could be buried while you watch the huge towering clouds from a distance 

Thanks Surrey, so this could be good for us if it comes to pass.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards]

4 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Have you seen the recent uppers on the GFS? 

T 132

-10 LINE on the east coast

T144

-15 line makes landfall 

GFS is also one of the "warmer" outcomes with some models even colder.. 

That's sufficient cold to set off amazing lake effect snow

When was the last time you could say that amount of cold was within the reliable lol 

I guess colder weather is not to your fancy? 

 

Hi Surrey, can you explain what “lake effect snow” is and how it would impact us.  Thanks.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards]

7 minutes ago, Mark Bayley said:

There is a longer fetch. It will require the likes of the NAE, NMM etc.. to provide more accurate forecsts (especially for our region). The current graphics are based on the mesoscale models. In any case shower and trough activity is hard to predict, in most cases it will be nowcasting. Only thing to be weary of is winds veering SE.

What will happen if the wind veers S.E.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards]

21 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Morning All

Off on hols now- will be dropping in though -

As of today 04:30z the best & coldest overnight runs ever modelled since the dawn of the internet with the best highlighted below...

S

Enjoy your holiday Steve

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards]

8 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Given the sheer consistency of the GFS to bring that sub -10C T850 cold pool across the whole of the UK, you’d have to assume the EC will have to shift further north with cold pool on the 12z later, as the deep cold pool only side swipes the SE on the 00z. 

A nail-biting long wait until all the 12z output is out to be certain the GFS is not leading us up the garden path!

So if today’s 12Z output is all hunkey dorey, can we assume it’s all go or can tomorrow’s runs potentially scupper our chances.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards]

1 minute ago, starstream said:

@tight isobar that's an interesting point, I'm on a phone and locations don't show on posters.

i know yourself Mr Murr and Dan Smith are from the SE contingent, and of course Mr shortwave Sussex who , as long as snow it to our shores is a true cheerleader.

who else regularly posts in Mod/Mad thread who's from our region?

Daniel* is a good one, also Mulzy.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards]

22 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Morning- if you drop into the mod thread..

It doesnt take a genius to work out that the downbeat are from all northern contingents *ecm* - wobble..

However as i have stressed in there 4 some time, in such set up (easterlys) our part of the uk is prone..and benefits  much better than most.

We are well in the game- and others could see see a clearing with a shunt north of heights.

Just to add these are the london latest ens ooz gfs...

And are truly remarkable.....for us.

Cold and potentialy snowy continues to be the theme for our part...... .

Glad you posted that tight isobar, it’s getting really tiresome with poster who you assume are knowledgable seem to be trolling.  It’s getting really difficult to decide who is talking straight on the Mod forum.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards]

15 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

I’m doing list of things I need to do before the freeze arrives,all weather related of course 

Going to wait another 24 hours just in case the ECM is on the correct path,even though it’s been performing rubbish this winter.

Met are still onboard so fingers crossed

P.S where  is SM thought he going ballistic with what the models are showing,but he seems to have stopped posting,strange.

He’s on a boozy break out of the country.  He still posts on the Mod thread in between rounds. Back on Saturday subject to snow conditions at Gatwick!

mind you, he might be back earlier, he mentioned something about his wallet was getting lighter.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards]

 

3 minutes ago, radiohead said:

Getting progressively snowier.

Anyone care to explain to me how radiohead can tell from that chart how it’s “getting progressively snowier”

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards]

16 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

 

Thanks

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards]

2 hours ago, SLEETY said:

Big update from met office this morning snow especially S and E by next weekend  and very uncertain it will turn less cold by MID March,it’s coming folks

Morning Sleety

 

Do you have a link to that update, I can never navigate their site.

Thanks

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards]

Told my son to polish his balaclava, hope it’s worth it.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards]

Hope you blokes are right, but I thought the UKMO had to come on board.  Please correct me if I’m wrong!

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards]

Well, it sounds like the ECM has had second thoughts and the cold spell is back on again.

If it does come to fruition, hats off to the Meto.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards]

16 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

50:50 at the mo as in cold early doors. Im desperate for it to hold off until sat -

The best ENS are the ones that land the deep cold Fri / Sat -- The early ones are nit so good for prolonged snow - however the GEM lands great all the way through-

My gut feeling UKMO / GEFS slow progression with Thurs onwards being the optimal time...

S

Just re-read Steve's post, initial reaction to the 50/50 was a bit worrying until I realised he was referring to next week, so assume that week after next will be better odds than 50/50?

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards]

24 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ah well

start preperations for next week-

Im supposed to be flying to the canaries Tues To Sat so hope the cold is delayed by a day or 2

or I dont book it - dilema !!

Will you be able to continue posting from there, we need up to date gen

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards]

2 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

On meteociel, there is a way to control the frames per second speed of the GIF, so I decided to try again at a slower rate, I hope this is a little better.

The steps are in 12 hours as we are looking into the extended range, so apologies that the movements will look a bit "clunky".

Thanks Captain, that was much better, a “pause” button would be great.  

Next thing I’ll be asking for snow as well!

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards]

Tried to quote a post from the Mod thread, it had a gif, which is good to watch the evolvement over a number of days, but for old eyes/brain, a bit fast, is it possible to control the speed of a gif?

 

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards]

So many experts on the Models thread, makes a debate in the House of Commons seem tame.