DaBrigg

Ive been fascinated by this system from the moment it was first designated as 91L at such an unusually low latitude. I suspect Tomas will experience some very rapid deepening as soon as it develops as decent inner core, and the eye begins to emerge. IMO, the NHC really let their guard down with this one. 24hours ago it was still being downplayed as a tropical wave, with only slow development expected. Today we may see a hurricane bearing down on the Islands. This was certainly a tropical cyclone well before yesterday's recon arrived. Perhaps it was initially assumed land interaction with South America would inhabit development for a few days. Hopefully it doesn't end up bringing yet more devastation and misery to the people of Haiti.

Some reasonable weather on the cards for the foreseeable future. No monsoons, no washouts, with high pressure staying close by. Temperatures will be up and down, and it may not stay completely settled all the time, but it could be a lot worse. Had some thunder here today, which is always welcome!

I think I meant to use the word 'sultry' more so than balmy. Perhaps both words are little over-dramatic to describe run-of-the mill unsettled Spring weather, but I suspect the the air will feel noticeably moisture-laden relative to what we've become acclimatised too. "Mild and close" would be the most appropriate description perhaps. I find it difficult to keep warm when dew-points are very low, regardless of what the temps are doing, but I might be a bit hyper-sensitive to such things.

We will finally get a taste of tropical-maritime air later next week by the looks of things. The high dew-points should be very noticeable after so many months of cold dry air. It will feel quite balmy, although not necessarily pleasant, if accompanied by breezy drizzly weather. Probably, and I suspect they will remain below average for some time yet. The UK Sea Surface Temperature thread has dropped back a few pages, perhaps it was time it was resurrected.

Some of the comments here are hilarious, as if the people who are wishing for cold and snow are somehow to blame for it! I love unseasonal or extreme weather of any sort, whether it be warm or cold, wet or windy. I wouldn't mind some warmth now, but in March its still far easier to get extreme cold than extreme heat. SSTs are very low, and there's still plenty of cold air to tap into. I enjoyed the wall- to-wall sunshine and light winds earlier this week, and even got a slight suntan hiking on the hills! IMO, it doesn't matter if its warm or cold, if the weather is spectacular like that! If the weather turns cold again over the next few weeks, there's no point moaning, or criticizing those who are excited by the prospect of it. Ill be very surprised if there isn't some more unseasonably potent cold before Spring is out.

Bit of a late reply, but be careful what you wish for! A mild, humid, southerly or southwesterly could be dreadful if you live in Cork City. You don't want the dew points to get higher than the sea-temps! There could be lots of sea-fog over the coming months for us coastal dwellers, if there is a sudden rise in temps. I notice this morning's GFS going for a mild SE'ly later next week. If that were to occur it would likely result in temps of 6-8C, with fog and low cloud, here on the Irish Sea coast.

The last few nights have seen some of the coldest temps in years locally here, on the east coast of Ireland, so the cold is not confined to Continental Europe by any means. -5C for two consecutive nights may not seem like much to most on here, but until this winter, the last time I recorded -5C or lower IMBY was New Years Night 2001/2002! Im in a very difficult location for low min temps, with the sea to my north and east. Im usually plagued by cloud cover and/or warm sea air, if the wind is anywhere between N and SE. For instance, on Monday morning my -5C suddenly rose to 0C, shortly BEFORE sunrise, when a very light east breeze developed. Low SSTs at this time of year have helped to a certain extent, no doubt.

Spring officially starts on March 1st in the world of meteorology, though in pre- Net Weather days a certain moderator on TWO used to get very aggressive in his belief that Spring did not begin until March 21st, and woe betide anyone who disagreed with him! In Ireland, we were all taught in primary school, that Feb 1st is the first day of Spring; May 1st is start of Summer, etc. This is based on the old pagan Celtic Calendar. Wiki: Irish Calendar So, if you were to ask random people in an Irish street when Spring begins, the most likely answer you will get is "February 1st". Some of our TV weather presenters often try to point out that these dates are all a month too early, especially during February, when the members of the public start moaning about 'unseasonal' cold weather in "Spring".

Had to do a bit of digging... 10.6C on Dec 10th, 11.6C on Dec 9th, and a balmy 13.1C on Dec 8th! All 3 days however managed overnight mins of 4-5C, which isn't particularly mild. It was a S-SE airflow, if I recall correctly. Its not uncommon to get double figure mins at that time of year, with a humid SW'ly airmass, for instance.

Some wet snow here this morning, accumulating on grass and car roofs. Wasn't expecting this. The easterlies only really produced graupel and hail here, so all this marginal wet snow is fine by me!

Couldn't agree more, and I really dread to think what the mood in this place will be like if we get cold weather continuing into March! The volatility and wild swings in temperature from week to week is something I always associated with Spring. We can also experience a great diurnal range in temps. In Spring you can get sunburnt while hiking on snow-covered mountains, and cold frosty mornings can give way to genuinely warm afternoon sunshine. Just to echo a post I made near the start of this thread, I do look forward to Spring, but "Spring" as in mid-April onwards,when the sun really starts getting strong, and the evenings lengthen radically. I enjoyed the warm weather in Mid-March last year, but I equally enjoy late season wintry blasts. From a IMBY perspective, as a coastal dweller low SSTs can really help the cold deliver in March, in a way that it often fails to in December or January. So, cold weather in March, or even early April, is OK with me.

A retrogression of the high to Greenland, giving us a northerly, will be great. I suspect it will happen sooner or later. However, we all know how reliable the models have been lately. We shouldnt get too excited just yet!

Ill be lucky to manage below average temps this week. 5.5C, by day, 4.5C by night. Cloudy skies, light winds. Its more or less just anticyclonic gloom! A few very light showers of rain or graupel now and then, just to liven things up. The only thing Ill be model-watching for is a change in wind direction.

Im not Matty, but the Dublin 12z ensembles were a little better than the 18z. There was only one member not going for cold on the 12z, and the mean hit -10C, where as the 18z has a few more mild ones in there, and the mean only gets down to -7C. The 12z had unrealistically good agreement for this far out IMO. It would have been foolish to expect little or no change in subsequent runs. Considering some of the wild swings we have seen of late, I fail to see what all the fuss is about. The 18z ensembles are probably closer to the 06z, so still very good overall. Personally, I dont have a strong opinion one way or the other whether we get a cold easterly, or a cold frosty high pressure, like what the ECM is going for. I live on a north-east facing coast, and easterlies just result in temps hovering at +2C day and night, no frost, and either heavy showers of graupel, or uselessly light snow flurries. I may actually prefer a slacker wind scenario, with clearer skies. At least that way the temps may manage to get sub-zero at some point.

I've just seen the ECM. Certainly some lovely charts for cold lovers, but they are some of the oddest winter charts Ive seen in the 10 years Ive been model-watching. The jet stream swings south, with southerly tracking lows, but the pressure remains relatively low over Scandi, particularly around 120-144 hrs. I will be very surprised if there aren't more adjustments over the next few runs, though hopefully for the better. A fascinating pattern nonetheless. I know many people despair at the wild swings at close range, but I have found it quite refreshing. If the models ever became 100% accurate, it would mean a lot less discussion on here, thats for sure!

Although I like Spring in general, I have no problem with cold weather continuing into March. I have also noticed many posters over the years, both here and elsewhere, who having just spent all winter crying out for cold, suddenly start moaning if the weather is below average after March 1st. Cold can still pack a punch in March. The seas are at their coldest, and dew-points tend to be low. The second half of Spring is what I look forward to. IMO, any good weather before that is somewhat wasted. The sun doesn't get particularly strong until mid-april, and the long evenings with extended twilight suddenly arrive near the end of April. I frequently go out hill-running, and I find that a fine settled spell in April or May can produce some of the nicest weather of the year. The sun is warm, but the air is still cool and fresh. The days are long and the humidity is low. Perfect!

I have seen new low temp records smashed, snow-covered frozen canals, and major disruption, all within ten miles of here. BUT, absolutely nothing of note happened here, where it matters, IMBY!!!!!!! Its never great living on the Irish Sea coast, with sea to my east and north. The sea warms the air too much, even under very cold upper air. However, to make matters worse, time and time again this week, I watched heavy showers, sometimes thundery, slip by me, literally by a few miles. I must be in the only place in Eastern Ireland with no snow cover, literally! A few showers of graupel, and some very light snow flurries resulted in a snow-like covering almost 1cm deep, at the very best, but that can happen from a heavy shower on a cool April afternoon! I have never found reading other peoples' post so depressing. A memorable winter event is occuring a few miles all around me, but not IMBY!!!

Its +4.3C on the coast now. The last few patches of snow are disappearing fast. There was never much snow here to begin with. I suppose thats it now. The cold spell of the decade was total dud at this location in terms of snow. I have seen heavy showers on a cool April afternoon produce more snow than this. Most of the precipitation fell as graupel here anyway, so the covering on the ground even resembled the aftermath of a Spring-hailstorm. I give up! I would gladly take cold zonality over an easterly. You have go to back to the easterly of Jan 1987 to find a covering of snow at this location, brought about by east winds, that lasted more than 24hours. No matter paradoxical it may seem, easterlies simply do not deliver when you live this close to the east coast.

I took a run up Two Rock Mountain, in South Dublin yesterday. There was 2-3ft of snow on top. That was a new experience for me, so thats some compensation for the lack of snow at home. However, its always better to get it IMBY! Normally I wouldnt be optimistic for the snow chances over the coming days, but the BBC seems to be upgrading the chances for widespread snow. The air must be still very cold close to the surface, in spite of less cold air coming in aloft. The temp has fallen here. Its now +1.4C

Here in far north county Dublin, it has been a non-event for snow. In 1982 there were several feet of snow, is it really that good in Dublin?

The dreaded "gap" in the shower activity, downwind of the Isle of Man, is affecting south Louth, coastal Meath, and now the extreme north of Co. Dublin. No more shower activity for me tonight, unless the winds go a little more Easterly. What little snow we've had is trying to thaw. We've had a 1cm covering at best, mostly of hail. Currently 1.6C.

There has just been some rather large hailstones, all the showers have been of hail here. There has been light snow falling from clear skies between the showers though! The temp is currently +0.8C, which is the coldest temp I have recorded with an east wind since the easterlies of the mid-90s, or longer! The wind has become quite gusty.

Nice to see Im not alone, though I don't have much snow to thaw. 2.6C now.

There has been a lot of snow, and the area just west of Dublin has been extremely cold. Trains are currently suspended on the Maynooth-Dublin rail-line for instance, due to recent snowfall. Flights are currently suspended at Dublin airport also. Check out AA Roadwatch for latest info.

Yes, it started as snow, not particulary heavy snow at that, but turned to rain near the end as the temp slowly rose. Its now +2.2C. It drizzled at -4C here yesterday morning! Low cloud had drifted in from the sea. I was outside in it for a while to make sure, but it was definitely drizzle! You would not believe some of the temp contrasts that I have witnessed here recently. Its heartbreaking to know its -7C less than 10 miles away, when its +3C here. There is sea to the north AND east of me, and the heat-island of the town (Balbriggan), doesn't help either.